Anonymous wrote:I ran across this and found it gave me such pause that I decided to share it:
People who run football clubs, they think in terms of buying players. Their goal shouldn't be to buy players, their goal should be to buy wins. And in order to buy wins, you need to buy a positive goal to defense ratio. Real Madrid and Portugal see Christiano Ronaldo and they see a star who's worth seventeen million dollars a year. When I see Christiano Ronaldo, what I see is... Is... An imperfect understanding of where wins come from. The guy's got a great shot. He's a decent passer. He can do tricks. But is he worth the seventeen million dollars a year that the Real Madrid are paying him? No. No. Football thinking is medieval. They are asking all the wrong questions. And if I say it to anybody, I'm-I'm ostracized. I'm-I'm-I'm a leper. So that's why I'm-I'm cagey about this with you. If you want full disclosure, I think it might be a good thing if teams got Messi's and Ronaldo's off their payroll. I think it would up all kinds of interesting possibilities.
When you get things down to one number. Using the stats the way I read them, you can find value in players that no one else can see. People are overlooked for a variety of biased reasons and perceived flaws. Age, appearance, personality. Mathematics cut straight through that.
Look at Thomas Muller. He is one of the most underrated players in football. His defect is that he plays awkwardly. None of the pundits care about him, because he looks funny. This guy could be not just the most underrated player, but the best footballer of this current generation. World Cup, Champions League, Goal Scorer, Goal Assists, Defensive work, Team Player. This guy should cost thirty million a year. Munich got him for under five.