Is there a coherent argument that loosening zoning laws will lead to affordable housing in DC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

The Federal Reserve has looked at this. It found if you have a place considered a desirable place to live and you add to the housing supply, that doesn't reduce prices because the additional housing supply encourages more people to move there because, again, it's considered a desirable place to live.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

The Federal Reserve has looked at this. It found if you have a place considered a desirable place to live and you add to the housing supply, that doesn't reduce prices because the additional housing supply encourages more people to move there because, again, it's considered a desirable place to live.

Where do the people who move there come from?

see this

https://www.citylab.com/perspective/2019/06/housing-supply-debate-affordable-home-prices-rent-yimby/591061/

A new working paper by economist Evan Mast of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research may help move the ball on this issue. Mast’s work suggests that even expensive new units in wealthy areas help relieve pressure on rents across the market, including in less-affluent neighborhoods. And that process doesn’t need to take years to unfold.


....

These findings suggest that housing markets aren’t nearly as segregated as some might fear, if you work your way down the migration chain far enough. His model suggests that for every 100 luxury units built in wealthier neighborhoods, as many as 48 households in moderate-income neighborhoods are able to move into housing that better suits their needs, vacating an existing unit in the process. Somewhere between 10 and 20 of these households are coming from among the city’s lowest-income neighborhoods, vacating units and reducing demand where housing is most likely to be affordable for working families.

This suggests that even pricey new units could free up a lot of existing housing. Accounting for possibilities like units sitting vacant, out-of-town movers filling the units, or units being used as second homes/pied-a-terres/safe deposit boxes in the sky, Mast’s model still indicates that for every 100 new market-rate units built, approximately 65 equivalent units are created by movers vacating existing units. If the migration chain is as robust as this paper finds it to be, as much as half of theses newly vacated units could be in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. This new supply, combined with less demand, could play a major role in easing pressure on rents in the short run.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

Increasing density will tend make housing more expensive, not less, because if you have a lot of people living in a small area, then businesses want to be there too. Once grocery stores and bars and restaurants and stores move into an area, then everyone wants to live there and prices go up accordingly. It's gentrification on steroids. Look at Navy Yard.

People moved to the Navy Yard because it has river views, its close to metro, its walking distance to the Capitol, its adjacent to Capitol Hill.

The restaurants and super markets followed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

The Federal Reserve has looked at this. It found if you have a place considered a desirable place to live and you add to the housing supply, that doesn't reduce prices because the additional housing supply encourages more people to move there because, again, it's considered a desirable place to live.

Where do the people who move there come from?

see this

https://www.citylab.com/perspective/2019/06/housing-supply-debate-affordable-home-prices-rent-yimby/591061/

A new working paper by economist Evan Mast of the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research may help move the ball on this issue. Mast’s work suggests that even expensive new units in wealthy areas help relieve pressure on rents across the market, including in less-affluent neighborhoods. And that process doesn’t need to take years to unfold.


....

These findings suggest that housing markets aren’t nearly as segregated as some might fear, if you work your way down the migration chain far enough. His model suggests that for every 100 luxury units built in wealthier neighborhoods, as many as 48 households in moderate-income neighborhoods are able to move into housing that better suits their needs, vacating an existing unit in the process. Somewhere between 10 and 20 of these households are coming from among the city’s lowest-income neighborhoods, vacating units and reducing demand where housing is most likely to be affordable for working families.

This suggests that even pricey new units could free up a lot of existing housing. Accounting for possibilities like units sitting vacant, out-of-town movers filling the units, or units being used as second homes/pied-a-terres/safe deposit boxes in the sky, Mast’s model still indicates that for every 100 new market-rate units built, approximately 65 equivalent units are created by movers vacating existing units. If the migration chain is as robust as this paper finds it to be, as much as half of theses newly vacated units could be in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. This new supply, combined with less demand, could play a major role in easing pressure on rents in the short run.

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

It's the density people who want to push out poor people to make way for their million-dollar condos.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

It's the density people who want to push out poor people to make way for their million-dollar condos.

No, there aren't many poor people in W3, and as noted above, there are provisions to replace rent control units (which are not necessarily inhabited by poor people anyway)

Plus most new luxury housing in DC is rentals. Do you know what the word condo actually means?

[Anonymous]

The argument is Tokyo. Google "tokyo affordable housing" and look at the price history.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

And? Like what is unfair or weird about this? Fair isn't equal. We don't all get a guarantee to have the same in life. Should I get to live in the Obama's spare rooms in Kalorama? Or can we build a high-rise on their lawn?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

It's the density people who want to push out poor people to make way for their million-dollar condos.

A development plan near Connecticut Ave. in Ward 3, much pushed by the “smart growth” echo chamber, features as its most prominent feature several townhouses that the developer wants to sell at prices starting at $1.5 Million. #notAffordableHousing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

OP here. Still waiting for someone to answer this question.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

OP here. Still waiting for someone to answer this question.

I'm still waiting for you to explain why you apparently oppose adding housing to DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Give rich people what they want, and there will be dregs for average people! In the far suburbs! Awesome.

The rich people in Ward 3, and similar places, want to stop development. Send the lesser folks somewhere else, as far away as possible.

It's the density people who want to push out poor people to make way for their million-dollar condos.

A development plan near Connecticut Ave. in Ward 3, much pushed by the “smart growth” echo chamber, features as its most prominent feature several townhouses that the developer wants to sell at prices starting at $1.5 Million. #notAffordableHousing.

A project can be smart growth yet not add affordable housing. Just like a project can add affordable housing while being dumb growth. Or not add affordable housing and be dumb growth. Or add affordable housing and be smart growth.

[Anonymous]

Which is why most of us are cool with no growth until we see a smart plan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I hear this constantly asserted, as if it were self-evidently true, but cannot figure out how it could possibly be correct.

There's 700,000 people in the District. There's 5 million in the suburbs. If you add 30,000 housing units in DC, they will instantly be soaked up by people in the suburbs looking for shorter commutes.

As people move into DC from Falls Church and Rockville and Fairfax, their old places will open up for other people. Other people will move into those places from suburbs even further out, which will open up slots in places like Chantilly or Columbia or wherever else those people are coming from and that would put downward pressure on housing prices in the suburbs they've left.

But how does any of that lead to affordable housing in DC?

OP here. Still waiting for someone to answer this question.

I'm still waiting for you to explain why you apparently oppose adding housing to DC.

No one is answering because the arguments that adding to the housing supply will result in affordable housing are completely bogus.