Starter home with newborn (DC)

[Anonymous]

I'm going to disagree with others on this. Here's the decision trees:

- others are saying not to buy now unless you can plan on saving/earning a lot of money in order to trade up after several years. So their implicit suggestion seems to be to save now and buy the larger house down the road when you can afford it. But that logic still relies on you having to be able to save a lot of money, with child, in the interim, or have increased income. The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. So if you don't buy now, and you're not planning on saving/earning more in the interim, you are definitely locking yourself out of certain neighborhoods for the long term.

- My experience is that it's a lifetime from the birth of a child to sending them to "real" school. Search this forum and you'll see a million people, including teachers, admit that most of the DCPS PK programs are going to serve your kids really well. And they're only getting more competitive through the increased interest in the lottery - so with exceptions in SE, the vast majority of PK programs are going to be great options. And most teachers will say that even K and 1st grade at the "gentrifying" schools are probably fine as well. And a little secret that others have noted is that childcare costs are still really expensive when your kids are in free PK. You still have to pay for aftercare and summer care. I ran a spreadsheet and the cost differential between DCPS PK, plus after school high school babysitter (no classes or activities) and same babysitter all summer was only about $6000 cheaper than our private year round preschool for the year. So getting into a good free PK is not the be-all and end-all. Where it is useful is by trying to lottery into a good school in one of the three years (PK3, PK4 and K). That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. So essentially you have a 6 or 7 year window from pregnancy to K (even later, if you only care starting in first grade) to live in the place you want.

- I would buy now where you can afford - target houses if you can, only because appreciation is likely to be better. I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). Live there for 7 years, see price appreciation and either move into a better neighborhood, or use the interim to lottery somewhere good.

- We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. We both work full time and my husband travels a lot. Not ideal, but I have no idea why people have a kid and then somehow find it impossible to move. It's really not hard. Espeically in town.

[Anonymous]

Don't but the compensating BS about buying somewhere bad and try for the lotteries. The schools are bad because of your neighbors who will in turn attend those schools, there are very, very few great neighborhoods that just so happen to be IB to horrible schools because they also draw from crappy areas (a few blocks away).

There are no brick walls in life and if you don't like the make up of the schools you will not like the make up of the neighborhood. You can try like capital hill to basically pretend they aren't there and price your coffee shops so they don't go but at the end of the day schools are merely a reflection of their environment and putting your blinders on and going charter is really kidding your self.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don't but the compensating BS about buying somewhere bad and try for the lotteries. The schools are bad because of your neighbors who will in turn attend those schools, there are very, very few great neighborhoods that just so happen to be IB to horrible schools because they also draw from crappy areas (a few blocks away).

There are no brick walls in life and if you don't like the make up of the schools you will not like the make up of the neighborhood. You can try like capital hill to basically pretend they aren't there and price your coffee shops so they don't go but at the end of the day schools are merely a reflection of their environment and putting your blinders on and going charter is really kidding your self.

So poor people are all bad? Okaaay...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to disagree with others on this. Here's the decision trees:

- others are saying not to buy now unless you can plan on saving/earning a lot of money in order to trade up after several years. So their implicit suggestion seems to be to save now and buy the larger house down the road when you can afford it. But that logic still relies on you having to be able to save a lot of money, with child, in the interim, or have increased income. The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. So if you don't buy now, and you're not planning on saving/earning more in the interim, you are definitely locking yourself out of certain neighborhoods for the long term.

- My experience is that it's a lifetime from the birth of a child to sending them to "real" school. Search this forum and you'll see a million people, including teachers, admit that most of the DCPS PK programs are going to serve your kids really well. And they're only getting more competitive through the increased interest in the lottery - so with exceptions in SE, the vast majority of PK programs are going to be great options. And most teachers will say that even K and 1st grade at the "gentrifying" schools are probably fine as well. And a little secret that others have noted is that childcare costs are still really expensive when your kids are in free PK. You still have to pay for aftercare and summer care. I ran a spreadsheet and the cost differential between DCPS PK, plus after school high school babysitter (no classes or activities) and same babysitter all summer was only about $6000 cheaper than our private year round preschool for the year. So getting into a good free PK is not the be-all and end-all. Where it is useful is by trying to lottery into a good school in one of the three years (PK3, PK4 and K). That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. So essentially you have a 6 or 7 year window from pregnancy to K (even later, if you only care starting in first grade) to live in the place you want.

- I would buy now where you can afford - target houses if you can, only because appreciation is likely to be better. I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). Live there for 7 years, see price appreciation and either move into a better neighborhood, or use the interim to lottery somewhere good.

- We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. We both work full time and my husband travels a lot. Not ideal, but I have no idea why people have a kid and then somehow find it impossible to move. It's really not hard. Espeically in town.

Lord. Where o' where to begin with this drivel. While we appreciate your weighing in from the burbs/upper NW with your 10 year old, pie in the sky information, let's explore your post, shall we?

The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. No, it doesn't. It over select period of years it may increase by that much but it just doesn't go up by that much per year. There are no #s to support annualized, compounding increases to that effect. Now it my go up, but the cost to buy 2 homes involves transfer/recordation taxes (x2) and moving costs (x2). That alone is going to eat up a large chunk of projected increased costs. And you are assuming they will have the cash to buy up while they still own their 1st home; that''s a large assumption. In this market you won't land a contract if it's contingent on sale of your current house. And RE goes up, generally, over time. But not every year. So what happens if the market is flat or comes back in 2-4 years when they want to sell? Now they're going to have to come out of pocket. RE for anything shorter than minimum 5, but ideally 7 year time horizon is a bad move. (And please spare us the "I sold my houses for x dollars gain" reply. That's true anecdotally, but not for someone who bought in 2007/8 and tried to sell in 2010/11/12.)

That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. You show your upper NW/burbs colors there. Those neighborhoods aren't cheap, just cheaper than upper NW. And not all of them. Cross into NOMA and things get expensive quick. And those are the neighborhoods (Petworth, NoMa, Brookland) that have run up the most over the last few years. Appreciation will continue (I hope; I live there) but surely not at previous rates.

We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. Add up your moving and transfer/recordation RE agent fee costs and get back to me. The math is what it is. For every house in excess of 399,999 you paid 1.45% to DC+seller's fees of (at best) 5%. What kind of gains are you realizing on a one year time horizon that aren't eaten up by 6.45% in costs (+moves, etc).

I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Information in a vacuum. Are they in good neighborhoods? 4 or 5 blocks can make a huge difference between gang riddled 1st NW and Petworth gentrified. Does the OP need a Metro? Who cares, you found pretty pictures!!!

Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). I think that says more about your finances than the OP's. If you don't understand why then I can't help you.

P.S. With what real estate firm do you work?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Don't but the compensating BS about buying somewhere bad and try for the lotteries. The schools are bad because of your neighbors who will in turn attend those schools, there are very, very few great neighborhoods that just so happen to be IB to horrible schools because they also draw from crappy areas (a few blocks away).

There are no brick walls in life and if you don't like the make up of the schools you will not like the make up of the neighborhood. You can try like capital hill to basically pretend they aren't there and price your coffee shops so they don't go but at the end of the day schools are merely a reflection of their environment and putting your blinders on and going charter is really kidding your self.

The nice thing about DC is that there are different neighborhoods for different tastes. I wouldn't bee happy with you in upper NW or NoVa, but you (allegedly) are. What is interesting is how hard you are trying to sell yourself about how happy you are or how no one could be happy on the Hill.

Query: When the lights are off and you've no DCUM to post to, is this more about your regret and compensating for your own choices?

[Anonymous]

OP, for the amount you have available, I echo looking at condos in Murch or Stoddert neighborhoods, both of which you may find affordable. However, I'd also recommend looking at Mount Pleasant. You might be able to find a nice 2 bedroom there, and with Bancroft improving (and maintaining its feeder rights to deal), you could be set through high school, assuming you'd be OK with bilingual education for your child.

[Anonymous]

Got our house in Petworth for under 400K, yard, off street parking, houses on our block now going for 550-700K depending on how fixed they are, you can still get a detached home walking distance to Metro, and if all your child-free friends are in Adams Morgan and Columbia Heights still it is convenient. Barnard, Powell, City Center PCS, EL Haynes, Bridges close by, the new Safeway, a Yes market, farmer's market, jazz in the park, spraypark, Upshur pool & dog park, Crane & Turtle, Chez Billy, Slash Run, Petworth Citizen, Looking Glass, Sala Thai (for the all important sushi delivery) & easy bike or drive to Target for your Modell's, Child's Place, DSW, Bed & Bath etc. We lotteried into a WOTP school after a couple of years. Neighbors are still slightly shooty but a lot less snooty! than pp 10:02. If you are a racist with a stick up your butt you should not move there though.

[Anonymous]

Bancroft test scores are terrible BTW

[Anonymous]

I am intrigued by the houses that border the arboretum. They look like great starter homes with access to green space
Not sure if they go up on the market very often.

[Anonymous]

Have a look at the SW Waterfront. Pre-k is garanteed and people generally like it. Es is weaker but might look different by the time a newborn is older. Safeway, couple restaurants, nice playgrounds, metro, and the waterfront are nearby. And with the development, resale in 5 years seems solid. http://www.mcenearney.com/property/43465273/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Have a look at the SW Waterfront. Pre-k is garanteed and people generally like it. Es is weaker but might look different by the time a newborn is older. Safeway, couple restaurants, nice playgrounds, metro, and the waterfront are nearby. And with the development, resale in 5 years seems solid. http://www.mcenearney.com/property/43465273/

Wilson is still the designated HS for SW?

[Anonymous]

Lots of condos IB for Eaton, incl. Ordway Gardens & McLean Gardens. Good luck!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to disagree with others on this. Here's the decision trees:

- others are saying not to buy now unless you can plan on saving/earning a lot of money in order to trade up after several years. So their implicit suggestion seems to be to save now and buy the larger house down the road when you can afford it. But that logic still relies on you having to be able to save a lot of money, with child, in the interim, or have increased income. The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. So if you don't buy now, and you're not planning on saving/earning more in the interim, you are definitely locking yourself out of certain neighborhoods for the long term.

- My experience is that it's a lifetime from the birth of a child to sending them to "real" school. Search this forum and you'll see a million people, including teachers, admit that most of the DCPS PK programs are going to serve your kids really well. And they're only getting more competitive through the increased interest in the lottery - so with exceptions in SE, the vast majority of PK programs are going to be great options. And most teachers will say that even K and 1st grade at the "gentrifying" schools are probably fine as well. And a little secret that others have noted is that childcare costs are still really expensive when your kids are in free PK. You still have to pay for aftercare and summer care. I ran a spreadsheet and the cost differential between DCPS PK, plus after school high school babysitter (no classes or activities) and same babysitter all summer was only about $6000 cheaper than our private year round preschool for the year. So getting into a good free PK is not the be-all and end-all. Where it is useful is by trying to lottery into a good school in one of the three years (PK3, PK4 and K). That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. So essentially you have a 6 or 7 year window from pregnancy to K (even later, if you only care starting in first grade) to live in the place you want.

- I would buy now where you can afford - target houses if you can, only because appreciation is likely to be better. I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). Live there for 7 years, see price appreciation and either move into a better neighborhood, or use the interim to lottery somewhere good.

- We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. We both work full time and my husband travels a lot. Not ideal, but I have no idea why people have a kid and then somehow find it impossible to move. It's really not hard. Espeically in town.

Lord. Where o' where to begin with this drivel. While we appreciate your weighing in from the burbs/upper NW with your 10 year old, pie in the sky information, let's explore your post, shall we?

The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. No, it doesn't. It over select period of years it may increase by that much but it just doesn't go up by that much per year. There are no #s to support annualized, compounding increases to that effect. Now it my go up, but the cost to buy 2 homes involves transfer/recordation taxes (x2) and moving costs (x2). That alone is going to eat up a large chunk of projected increased costs. And you are assuming they will have the cash to buy up while they still own their 1st home; that''s a large assumption. In this market you won't land a contract if it's contingent on sale of your current house. And RE goes up, generally, over time. But not every year. So what happens if the market is flat or comes back in 2-4 years when they want to sell? Now they're going to have to come out of pocket. RE for anything shorter than minimum 5, but ideally 7 year time horizon is a bad move. (And please spare us the "I sold my houses for x dollars gain" reply. That's true anecdotally, but not for someone who bought in 2007/8 and tried to sell in 2010/11/12.)

That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. You show your upper NW/burbs colors there. Those neighborhoods aren't cheap, just cheaper than upper NW. And not all of them. Cross into NOMA and things get expensive quick. And those are the neighborhoods (Petworth, NoMa, Brookland) that have run up the most over the last few years. Appreciation will continue (I hope; I live there) but surely not at previous rates.

We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. Add up your moving and transfer/recordation RE agent fee costs and get back to me. The math is what it is. For every house in excess of 399,999 you paid 1.45% to DC+seller's fees of (at best) 5%. What kind of gains are you realizing on a one year time horizon that aren't eaten up by 6.45% in costs (+moves, etc).

I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Information in a vacuum. Are they in good neighborhoods? 4 or 5 blocks can make a huge difference between gang riddled 1st NW and Petworth gentrified. Does the OP need a Metro? Who cares, you found pretty pictures!!!

Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). I think that says more about your finances than the OP's. If you don't understand why then I can't help you.

P.S. With what real estate firm do you work?

Wow crazy person. I'm the PP who you think lives in the suburbs. I don't, and I never have. I have a long string of ownership in and around DuPont circle, Columbia Heights (our starter house in the early 2000s) and most recently right off logan circle. I am as urban as they come, and haven't lived in a suburb since I left home at 18. The neighborhoods in which I've lived have all generally seen price appreciation of 10% a year or more, save for stalled appreciation (but not depreciation) during the recession. And I don't understand why you think saving money is going to be so much easier while renting than buying. Mortgages go into your equity - which is de facto saving. And the eckington houses I listed may be a terrible block (not sure) but it is 2 blocks from a block where I have several friends whose houses are all worth over $1m. That's how you make money on real estate - buy on the crappier block that is bound to improve in aesthetics over the next 5 years, do some basic and cheap, but pretty upgrades, and sell for a gain. Duh.

PS haha jokes on you - I've done some nice upgrades to every house I've owned in the last 10 years (some of the moves I mentioned were into rentals while we renovated) and in every case, I've made about $150k above and beyond the purchase price/reno costs by selling after 2 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to disagree with others on this. Here's the decision trees:

- others are saying not to buy now unless you can plan on saving/earning a lot of money in order to trade up after several years. So their implicit suggestion seems to be to save now and buy the larger house down the road when you can afford it. But that logic still relies on you having to be able to save a lot of money, with child, in the interim, or have increased income. The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. So if you don't buy now, and you're not planning on saving/earning more in the interim, you are definitely locking yourself out of certain neighborhoods for the long term.

- My experience is that it's a lifetime from the birth of a child to sending them to "real" school. Search this forum and you'll see a million people, including teachers, admit that most of the DCPS PK programs are going to serve your kids really well. And they're only getting more competitive through the increased interest in the lottery - so with exceptions in SE, the vast majority of PK programs are going to be great options. And most teachers will say that even K and 1st grade at the "gentrifying" schools are probably fine as well. And a little secret that others have noted is that childcare costs are still really expensive when your kids are in free PK. You still have to pay for aftercare and summer care. I ran a spreadsheet and the cost differential between DCPS PK, plus after school high school babysitter (no classes or activities) and same babysitter all summer was only about $6000 cheaper than our private year round preschool for the year. So getting into a good free PK is not the be-all and end-all. Where it is useful is by trying to lottery into a good school in one of the three years (PK3, PK4 and K). That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. So essentially you have a 6 or 7 year window from pregnancy to K (even later, if you only care starting in first grade) to live in the place you want.

- I would buy now where you can afford - target houses if you can, only because appreciation is likely to be better. I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). Live there for 7 years, see price appreciation and either move into a better neighborhood, or use the interim to lottery somewhere good.

- We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. We both work full time and my husband travels a lot. Not ideal, but I have no idea why people have a kid and then somehow find it impossible to move. It's really not hard. Espeically in town.

Lord. Where o' where to begin with this drivel. While we appreciate your weighing in from the burbs/upper NW with your 10 year old, pie in the sky information, let's explore your post, shall we?

The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. No, it doesn't. It over select period of years it may increase by that much but it just doesn't go up by that much per year. There are no #s to support annualized, compounding increases to that effect. Now it my go up, but the cost to buy 2 homes involves transfer/recordation taxes (x2) and moving costs (x2). That alone is going to eat up a large chunk of projected increased costs. And you are assuming they will have the cash to buy up while they still own their 1st home; that''s a large assumption. In this market you won't land a contract if it's contingent on sale of your current house. And RE goes up, generally, over time. But not every year. So what happens if the market is flat or comes back in 2-4 years when they want to sell? Now they're going to have to come out of pocket. RE for anything shorter than minimum 5, but ideally 7 year time horizon is a bad move. (And please spare us the "I sold my houses for x dollars gain" reply. That's true anecdotally, but not for someone who bought in 2007/8 and tried to sell in 2010/11/12.)

That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. You show your upper NW/burbs colors there. Those neighborhoods aren't cheap, just cheaper than upper NW. And not all of them. Cross into NOMA and things get expensive quick. And those are the neighborhoods (Petworth, NoMa, Brookland) that have run up the most over the last few years. Appreciation will continue (I hope; I live there) but surely not at previous rates.

We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. Add up your moving and transfer/recordation RE agent fee costs and get back to me. The math is what it is. For every house in excess of 399,999 you paid 1.45% to DC+seller's fees of (at best) 5%. What kind of gains are you realizing on a one year time horizon that aren't eaten up by 6.45% in costs (+moves, etc).

I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Information in a vacuum. Are they in good neighborhoods? 4 or 5 blocks can make a huge difference between gang riddled 1st NW and Petworth gentrified. Does the OP need a Metro? Who cares, you found pretty pictures!!!

Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). I think that says more about your finances than the OP's. If you don't understand why then I can't help you.

P.S. With what real estate firm do you work?

Wow crazy person. I'm the PP who you think lives in the suburbs. I don't, and I never have. I have a long string of ownership in and around DuPont circle, Columbia Heights (our starter house in the early 2000s) and most recently right off logan circle. I am as urban as they come, and haven't lived in a suburb since I left home at 18. The neighborhoods in which I've lived have all generally seen price appreciation of 10% a year or more, save for stalled appreciation (but not depreciation) during the recession. And I don't understand why you think saving money is going to be so much easier while renting than buying. Mortgages go into your equity - which is de facto saving. And the eckington houses I listed may be a terrible block (not sure) but it is 2 blocks from a block where I have several friends whose houses are all worth over $1m. That's how you make money on real estate - buy on the crappier block that is bound to improve in aesthetics over the next 5 years, do some basic and cheap, but pretty upgrades, and sell for a gain. Duh.

PS haha jokes on you - I've done some nice upgrades to every house I've owned in the last 10 years (some of the moves I mentioned were into rentals while we renovated) and in every case, I've made about $150k above and beyond the purchase price/reno costs by selling after 2 years.

6.45% (minimum) in transfer costs every time. No one: not a real estate agent, title agent, etc. would tell you that buying and selling every 15 months is a good plan. That's not "how you make money". Who's crazy again?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to disagree with others on this. Here's the decision trees:

- others are saying not to buy now unless you can plan on saving/earning a lot of money in order to trade up after several years. So their implicit suggestion seems to be to save now and buy the larger house down the road when you can afford it. But that logic still relies on you having to be able to save a lot of money, with child, in the interim, or have increased income. The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. So if you don't buy now, and you're not planning on saving/earning more in the interim, you are definitely locking yourself out of certain neighborhoods for the long term.

- My experience is that it's a lifetime from the birth of a child to sending them to "real" school. Search this forum and you'll see a million people, including teachers, admit that most of the DCPS PK programs are going to serve your kids really well. And they're only getting more competitive through the increased interest in the lottery - so with exceptions in SE, the vast majority of PK programs are going to be great options. And most teachers will say that even K and 1st grade at the "gentrifying" schools are probably fine as well. And a little secret that others have noted is that childcare costs are still really expensive when your kids are in free PK. You still have to pay for aftercare and summer care. I ran a spreadsheet and the cost differential between DCPS PK, plus after school high school babysitter (no classes or activities) and same babysitter all summer was only about $6000 cheaper than our private year round preschool for the year. So getting into a good free PK is not the be-all and end-all. Where it is useful is by trying to lottery into a good school in one of the three years (PK3, PK4 and K). That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. So essentially you have a 6 or 7 year window from pregnancy to K (even later, if you only care starting in first grade) to live in the place you want.

- I would buy now where you can afford - target houses if you can, only because appreciation is likely to be better. I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). Live there for 7 years, see price appreciation and either move into a better neighborhood, or use the interim to lottery somewhere good.

- We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. We both work full time and my husband travels a lot. Not ideal, but I have no idea why people have a kid and then somehow find it impossible to move. It's really not hard. Espeically in town.

Lord. Where o' where to begin with this drivel. While we appreciate your weighing in from the burbs/upper NW with your 10 year old, pie in the sky information, let's explore your post, shall we?

The reality is that DC close-in real estate goes up by around 5-10% a year. No, it doesn't. It over select period of years it may increase by that much but it just doesn't go up by that much per year. There are no #s to support annualized, compounding increases to that effect. Now it my go up, but the cost to buy 2 homes involves transfer/recordation taxes (x2) and moving costs (x2). That alone is going to eat up a large chunk of projected increased costs. And you are assuming they will have the cash to buy up while they still own their 1st home; that''s a large assumption. In this market you won't land a contract if it's contingent on sale of your current house. And RE goes up, generally, over time. But not every year. So what happens if the market is flat or comes back in 2-4 years when they want to sell? Now they're going to have to come out of pocket. RE for anything shorter than minimum 5, but ideally 7 year time horizon is a bad move. (And please spare us the "I sold my houses for x dollars gain" reply. That's true anecdotally, but not for someone who bought in 2007/8 and tried to sell in 2010/11/12.)

That gives you three years to, say, lottery into Mundo Verde - which is a decent commute from a lot of cheaper neighborhoods. You show your upper NW/burbs colors there. Those neighborhoods aren't cheap, just cheaper than upper NW. And not all of them. Cross into NOMA and things get expensive quick. And those are the neighborhoods (Petworth, NoMa, Brookland) that have run up the most over the last few years. Appreciation will continue (I hope; I live there) but surely not at previous rates.

We've lived in 6 houses in the last 8 years. Add up your moving and transfer/recordation RE agent fee costs and get back to me. The math is what it is. For every house in excess of 399,999 you paid 1.45% to DC+seller's fees of (at best) 5%. What kind of gains are you realizing on a one year time horizon that aren't eaten up by 6.45% in costs (+moves, etc).

I just checked and Eckington and Brookland have a couple places for $550,000 that look really nice. Information in a vacuum. Are they in good neighborhoods? 4 or 5 blocks can make a huge difference between gang riddled 1st NW and Petworth gentrified. Does the OP need a Metro? Who cares, you found pretty pictures!!!

Save as much money during those years as you can -- which presumably is the same amount you'd be saving if you were renting (taking into account equity through mortgage payments). I think that says more about your finances than the OP's. If you don't understand why then I can't help you.

P.S. With what real estate firm do you work?

Wow crazy person. I'm the PP who you think lives in the suburbs. I don't, and I never have. I have a long string of ownership in and around DuPont circle, Columbia Heights (our starter house in the early 2000s) and most recently right off logan circle. I am as urban as they come, and haven't lived in a suburb since I left home at 18. The neighborhoods in which I've lived have all generally seen price appreciation of 10% a year or more, save for stalled appreciation (but not depreciation) during the recession. And I don't understand why you think saving money is going to be so much easier while renting than buying. Mortgages go into your equity - which is de facto saving. And the eckington houses I listed may be a terrible block (not sure) but it is 2 blocks from a block where I have several friends whose houses are all worth over $1m. That's how you make money on real estate - buy on the crappier block that is bound to improve in aesthetics over the next 5 years, do some basic and cheap, but pretty upgrades, and sell for a gain. Duh.

PS haha jokes on you - I've done some nice upgrades to every house I've owned in the last 10 years (some of the moves I mentioned were into rentals while we renovated) and in every case, I've made about $150k above and beyond the purchase price/reno costs by selling after 2 years.

6.45% (minimum) in transfer costs every time. No one: not a real estate agent, title agent, etc. would tell you that buying and selling every 15 months is a good plan. That's not "how you make money". Who's crazy again?

I'm not suggesting the OP sell in 15 months. I'm suggesting a 5-6 year time frame, which is really not considered that risky. Yes, there's a small risk that OP can't sell to break even at that point. But there's also a "risk" that OP gets into a charter so doesn't need to sell at 5 years. Or that the house appreciates a lot, and OP makes a lot of cash and can nicely upgrade. And the reality is that there is always a risk that we can't sell our houses at a break even point, even if we hold for 20 years. I think 5-7 years is reasonable, and is a better investment than buying a condo now or continuing to rent.