Is crime affect DC's real estate market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not a real estate professional.

But I have been wondering about this as friends of mine -- two different couples with preschool aged kids -- have sold their homes and left DC in the past year (one couple sold a row house in Kingman Park and went to Richmond, and another sold a condo in Capitol Hill and moved to Alexandria). Both cited safety concerns (I think something happened to the DW in the Kingman Park couple that made her feel unsafe and want to up and leave, but I'm not sure because they aren't talking about it).

We lived in KP and the last straw for me was bringing our kids inside from watching a movie on our back deck during the pandemic years, and hearing the "pop pop pop" as we came inside followed by seeing the car speeding off. It was a murder right at the end of the street, and that was the end for me, I just couldn't take it anymore and my blood pressure rises with every further "pop pop pop" I've heard randomly laying in my bed at night. We could hear gunshots from as far away as across the river to Hill East which could sound very loud. We simply didn't used to hear as many of those "pop pop pops" the first ten years we lived there and it's just gotten far worse in the past couple of years.

There was a teen who went for a run on Kingman Island last year and ended up coming upon a gunman who stalked him while he hid with another passerby in the woods. We frequently would to go to Kingman Island and loved it, and it was another nail in the coffin of "I just can't take this anymore"

Logically, I know it's still a low risk for my kid to be shot or murdered, but yes, it's a higher risk in the city vs. the burbs. That's a fact. And even if it's still a low risk, there is still a trauma that comes from living in a high crime area, that if it doesn't happen to you, it inevitably happens to someone you know, you love, you care about, you work with. Over the years of living in the city, I personally was groped, a neighbor mugged, a different neighbor randomly attacked on a metro bus, someone from my workplace was carjacked and murdered.

When the PP rolls their eyes at the supposed "fragility" I have to wonder where they actually live. How often are they hearing gunshots while sitting on their couch to "Netflix and chill"? How often are people in their "bubble" being impacted?

[Anonymous]

I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

From 2010s to pre-pandemic, there was a general DC sentiment that many "bad" neighborhoods were improving, crime was declining, and a lot of neighborhoods were getting better. This wasn't some made up notion, they WERE getting better, there WAS a ton of growth, development, etc. and crime DID decline.

We lost so much ground in the past few years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Only terminally online helicopter parents are worried about living in a city that has by far the highest crime rate out of any capital city in the Western World? That’s an incredibly nihilistic outlook.

+1 the PP was clearly posting from some rich area of DC where they think all DC parents don't have to worry about crime just because they, personally, aren't impacted by crime in their safe haven bubble.

+2 It's either that or their oldest kid is under age 6 so they don't understand that the crime means you can't send your 7+ old kids to roam around with friends. Sure you can push your stroller around the less safe areas, but it's a world of difference when your kids can't run around the neighborhood with friends like second graders in safe neighborhoods can.

We left DC in part due to rising crime. Our once-safe neighborhood was no longer safe and our kids could no longer roam around with friends.

This is exactly right. We left Columbia Heights when our oldest was in between second and third grade. Walking to the farmers market and grocery store and metro during the day was fine for us (although it appears things have changed for the worse). But when our kid wanted to start doing stuff on his own, we realized it just wasn't a great idea, particularly after dark. So we moved.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

This is the issue. Many DC neighborhoods are less safe now than they were pre-pandemic.

[Anonymous]

I know it's an issue for me as a buyer. We need a bigger house and refuse to invest in it in DC because terrifying crime keeps happening all around us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

True. U-Street, Shaw, and Logan Circle in 1990 were not places you wanted to walk at night. Basically anywhere east of 16th street.

Much of Adams Morgan also was sketchy and considered unsafe.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

True. U-Street, Shaw, and Logan Circle in 1990 were not places you wanted to walk at night. Basically anywhere east of 16th street.

Much of Adams Morgan also was sketchy and considered unsafe.

Adams Morgan was considered the newly hip, kind of dangerous part of town, and even most young singles stuck to Dupont Circle, Georgetown and only the close-in parts of Capitol Hill. Obviously, Navy Yard did not exist.

Nobody lived or really even ventured East of 16th street.

[Anonymous]

Newsflash. East of Rock Creek Park is still very dangerous. It hasn’t really changed. Only more yuppies east of it. But I wouldn’t raise my kids in DuPont, Logan, or anywhere near there.

[Anonymous]

The walking places part is what I don't get about nicer pockets like Mt. P. or Crestwood. Maybe that pocket is safe (and undeniably nice houses) but the crime in Columbia Heights is so bad. I guess you would be driving everywhere any way?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the problem is these neighborhoods became really safe for like a 10 year period and now while they are safer than the 1980s/90s, they are more dangerous than 5 years ago (but hopefully reversing).

You would never in a million years considered living in these areas in 1990, certainly not with a young family.

They were dirt cheap in 1990 (even by 1990 standards), so if you braved it you made a fortune.

True. U-Street, Shaw, and Logan Circle in 1990 were not places you wanted to walk at night. Basically anywhere east of 16th street.

Much of Adams Morgan also was sketchy and considered unsafe.

Adams Morgan was considered the newly hip, kind of dangerous part of town, and even most young singles stuck to Dupont Circle, Georgetown and only the close-in parts of Capitol Hill. Obviously, Navy Yard did not exist.

Nobody lived or really even ventured East of 16th street.

I think you meant to say "nobody who looked like me."

[Anonymous]

We left Capitol Hill because of all the petty crime and are increasing insurance rates with two side mirrors and three windshields broken in less than a year. We just paid for them after the first windshield and side mirror because we saw how it affected the rate. The petty crime was stolen packages, groceries taken from back of car as I was putting baby in stroller; man and beast defecation and urination in yard, sidewalks and street; ranting alcoholics and drug users demanding money to enter retail or restaurants; they even stole the pansies from the front pots. There is a lot of justifiable anger in the city and I have done my bit to help but I cannot take care of everyone and have to concentrate on the surroundings of my family. We moved to Alexandria and the same type of people who created all the problems in DC are the first to be helpful in our new neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We left Capitol Hill because of all the petty crime and are increasing insurance rates with two side mirrors and three windshields broken in less than a year. We just paid for them after the first windshield and side mirror because we saw how it affected the rate. The petty crime was stolen packages, groceries taken from back of car as I was putting baby in stroller; man and beast defecation and urination in yard, sidewalks and street; ranting alcoholics and drug users demanding money to enter retail or restaurants; they even stole the pansies from the front pots. There is a lot of justifiable anger in the city and I have done my bit to help but I cannot take care of everyone and have to concentrate on the surroundings of my family. We moved to Alexandria and the same type of people who created all the problems in DC are the first to be helpful in our new neighborhood.

Unclear what you mean by this?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Newsflash. East of Rock Creek Park is still very dangerous. It hasn’t really changed. Only more yuppies east of it. But I wouldn’t raise my kids in DuPont, Logan, or anywhere near there.

What are you talking about? East of Rock Creek Park includes Shepherd Park, Colonial Village, Crestwood, 16th Street Heights - all safe neighborhoods among others.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Newsflash. East of Rock Creek Park is still very dangerous. It hasn’t really changed. Only more yuppies east of it. But I wouldn’t raise my kids in DuPont, Logan, or anywhere near there.

What are you talking about? East of Rock Creek Park includes Shepherd Park, Colonial Village, Crestwood, 16th Street Heights - all safe neighborhoods among others.

If your metric of safe is St Louis or Baltimore, sure. I expect better and don’t want my kids to be shot by errant bullets