Is crime affect DC's real estate market?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I got this from our realtor who we used many years ago:

https://vimeo.com/938357764

Notice he says MoCo and PG are a seller's market with only 1.5 months of inventory, and for DC it's different -- only areas like AU Park and Cleveland Park are similar, and the rest is a buyer's market with 5 months of inventory.

Could the crime situation in DC be affecting this? Just seems odd that these areas are just a few miles apart, but so much difference in the market dynamics.

No. Otherwise why would PG county be hot?

PG County is far safer than DC. It had 118 murders in 2023. DC had 274. And PG County has around 300,000 more people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s bizarre that people can’t acknowledge that having a worse murder than rate than Baltimore in 2023 wouldn’t affect home sales. Of course it is. Take your heads out of the sand.

DC crime was really bad in 2023, but we can acknowledge that without misrepresenting the statistics. The number of murders in DC for 2023 was higher than in Baltimore, but the per capita homicide rate was lower. DC is bad, but still not Baltimore-level bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s bizarre that people can’t acknowledge that having a worse murder than rate than Baltimore in 2023 wouldn’t affect home sales. Of course it is. Take your heads out of the sand.

DC crime was really bad in 2023, but we can acknowledge that without misrepresenting the statistics. The number of murders in DC for 2023 was higher than in Baltimore, but the per capita homicide rate was lower. DC is bad, but still not Baltimore-level bad.

Point taken. The numbers in DC are more in total, but less per capita. But not by much. Also, Baltimore’s murder rate has been trending down over the past several years, while DC’s has almost tripled over the past 10 years.

DC Murders - 103 in 2013, 160 in 2018, 274 in 2023

Baltimore Murders - 233 in 2013, 309 in 2018, 262 in 2023

DC has had an outrageous jump in crime over the past 5 and 10 years. And unlike Baltimore DC has an extremely expensive housing market. At a certain point the market is going to reflect the crime rate, just like it did in the early 1990s when you could buy a row home in Columbia Heights for $75,000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Condos are a disaster. Yes. But the detached home market is also far looser than the suburbs.

Condos are not a disaster and not selling at a loss (I suppose it might if it’s an immediate flip). I know because I’m on the market and looking at listing history.

They are a disaster, they don't hold their value adjusting for inflation and the HOAs are incredibly high as a % of the property value (1-3+%). You are better off renting than buying a condo. You never truly own it.

You are describing the costs of maintenance and taxes, which all home owners pay, without comparing with single home ownership. I regularly hear people plan to spend this much on homeownership on average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Only terminally online helicopter parents are worried about living in a city that has by far the highest crime rate out of any capital city in the Western World? That’s an incredibly nihilistic outlook.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Only terminally online helicopter parents are worried about living in a city that has by far the highest crime rate out of any capital city in the Western World? That’s an incredibly nihilistic outlook.

+1 the PP was clearly posting from some rich area of DC where they think all DC parents don't have to worry about crime just because they, personally, aren't impacted by crime in their safe haven bubble.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Condos are a disaster. Yes. But the detached home market is also far looser than the suburbs.

Condos are not a disaster and not selling at a loss (I suppose it might if it’s an immediate flip). I know because I’m on the market and looking at listing history.

They are a disaster, they don't hold their value adjusting for inflation and the HOAs are incredibly high as a % of the property value (1-3+%). You are better off renting than buying a condo. You never truly own it.

You are describing the costs of maintenance and taxes, which all home owners pay, without comparing with single home ownership. I regularly hear people plan to spend this much on homeownership on average.

The condo fees are in addition to taxes! So you are paying an extra $2000 a month just for maintenance, which is $24,000 a year on top of property taxes which could be another $15000 a year. So that's approaching $40,000 and this still does not include insurance etc.

[Anonymous]

Who cares about the higher number of murders if it’s the same group of youth gangs getting each other killed. The more the merrier in my view. It leaves the city with the better people

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Who cares about the higher number of murders if it’s the same group of youth gangs getting each other killed. The more the merrier in my view. It leaves the city with the better people

Oh then I'll stop caring when the bullets fly by my house where my children sleep and neighbors ducked for cover. Didn't realize I should be celebrating the gunshots!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

It's not just condos, it's rowhouses that are sitting if you are paying attention. I've watched real estate in my neck of Hill East and have never seen rowhouses sit for so long. Currently, my specific neighborhood has more houses than I've ever seen simultaneously for sale in the 15 years I've lived there and have watched every real estate listing, and they are sitting for weeks and sometimes months.

DP to add, live in a higher crime area and yes it impacted us moving. I guess people are helicopter parents if they don't like listening to gunshots while sitting in their living room or have people murdered within a block of their house? Hill East has seen a really horrible slate of drive by shootings this year with people literally having to drop to the ground with bullets flying.

This is literally the reason that the people
I know left Hill East. Cowering in their home while a drive-by shooting happened (after a spate of other nearby violent crime) was the straw that broke the camel's back. Add to it the fact that it's not very walkable and the schools are terrible, and I don't know why anyone would want to live there. People are waking up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

It's not just condos, it's rowhouses that are sitting if you are paying attention. I've watched real estate in my neck of Hill East and have never seen rowhouses sit for so long. Currently, my specific neighborhood has more houses than I've ever seen simultaneously for sale in the 15 years I've lived there and have watched every real estate listing, and they are sitting for weeks and sometimes months.

DP to add, live in a higher crime area and yes it impacted us moving. I guess people are helicopter parents if they don't like listening to gunshots while sitting in their living room or have people murdered within a block of their house? Hill East has seen a really horrible slate of drive by shootings this year with people literally having to drop to the ground with bullets flying.

This is literally the reason that the people
I know left Hill East. Cowering in their home while a drive-by shooting happened (after a spate of other nearby violent crime) was the straw that broke the camel's back. Add to it the fact that it's not very walkable and the schools are terrible, and I don't know why anyone would want to live there. People are waking up.

Plus being represented by a council member who thinks violent crime is just part of "city living".

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Only terminally online helicopter parents are worried about living in a city that has by far the highest crime rate out of any capital city in the Western World? That’s an incredibly nihilistic outlook.

+1 the PP was clearly posting from some rich area of DC where they think all DC parents don't have to worry about crime just because they, personally, aren't impacted by crime in their safe haven bubble.

+2 It's either that or their oldest kid is under age 6 so they don't understand that the crime means you can't send your 7+ old kids to roam around with friends. Sure you can push your stroller around the less safe areas, but it's a world of difference when your kids can't run around the neighborhood with friends like second graders in safe neighborhoods can.

We left DC in part due to rising crime. Our once-safe neighborhood was no longer safe and our kids could no longer roam around with friends.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

Only terminally online helicopter parents are worried about living in a city that has by far the highest crime rate out of any capital city in the Western World? That’s an incredibly nihilistic outlook.

+1 the PP was clearly posting from some rich area of DC where they think all DC parents don't have to worry about crime just because they, personally, aren't impacted by crime in their safe haven bubble.

+2 It's either that or their oldest kid is under age 6 so they don't understand that the crime means you can't send your 7+ old kids to roam around with friends. Sure you can push your stroller around the less safe areas, but it's a world of difference when your kids can't run around the neighborhood with friends like second graders in safe neighborhoods can.

We left DC in part due to rising crime. Our once-safe neighborhood was no longer safe and our kids could no longer roam around with friends.

Which neighborhood did you leave ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I dont know if it's crime or just the reality that the youth bulge has declined, and people are starting families. interest rates are the same everywhere.

NOVA is one of the hottest seller markets in the country right now at 20 day DOM. DC is 47 days.

If you want to stay updated with the local market dynamics, I find these reports best. I've been reading them going back fifteen years.

The DOM for DC comapred to NoVA suggests it could be crime affecting hte DC market, right?

No, only terminally online helicopter parents think crime is anything to worry about. The real reason is because DC has way more condos for sale which take far longer to sell than detached houses.

It's not just condos, it's rowhouses that are sitting if you are paying attention. I've watched real estate in my neck of Hill East and have never seen rowhouses sit for so long. Currently, my specific neighborhood has more houses than I've ever seen simultaneously for sale in the 15 years I've lived there and have watched every real estate listing, and they are sitting for weeks and sometimes months.

DP to add, live in a higher crime area and yes it impacted us moving. I guess people are helicopter parents if they don't like listening to gunshots while sitting in their living room or have people murdered within a block of their house? Hill East has seen a really horrible slate of drive by shootings this year with people literally having to drop to the ground with bullets flying.

This is literally the reason that the people
I know left Hill East. Cowering in their home while a drive-by shooting happened (after a spate of other nearby violent crime) was the straw that broke the camel's back. Add to it the fact that it's not very walkable and the schools are terrible, and I don't know why anyone would want to live there. People are waking up.

Plus being represented by a council member who thinks violent crime is just part of "city living".

If that's the attitude, they will pretty soon not have any city living!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Who cares about the higher number of murders if it’s the same group of youth gangs getting each other killed. The more the merrier in my view. It leaves the city with the better people

Oh then I'll stop caring when the bullets fly by my house where my children sleep and neighbors ducked for cover. Didn't realize I should be celebrating the gunshots!

Think of it as spring cleaning.