Sheesh, there are some crazy people on this forum. 6% is not very generous. You have no idea what you are talking about. You can get a 2yr treasury paying nearly 4% right now. Do you really think the risk premium in stocks will be less than 2% of risk free assets? |
+1. Minimum withdrawals can push you into a higher tax bracket faster than you think. Especially if you think you will have enough to leave $$ for your heirs — non-qualified accounts can be much preferable from a long-term tax perspective. They can be inherited with a stepped up basis and no withdrawal requirements (unlike qualified funds). I wouldn’t leave any employer match in the table, but we always contributed the amount that would get an employer match and then put the rest of our savings in non-qualified funds, and we have still ended up with a higher RMD than we need to live on. |
+1 SP500 long-term annualized return is 11.88% from 1957 through end of 2021. 6% is fine for an assumption in your retirement calculator. |
DP. The point is that a lot of economists are questioning whether the 6% return rate over time is a good number. I saw a paper the other day that extended the data window that was covered by the economists that made that calculation back just a few years and the average rate of return dropped significantly. Plus, even if the 6% return # is good over say, a 100 years, there could be 30 year windows in which the return is much lower. It’s why financial advisors will give you a range of probabilities. |
Sure. If you ignore the Great Depression and the recession that preceded the “Roaring 20’s” (which really started in 1925 and the 6% number does). If you start the calculation in the late teens/1920 6% is too high. |
The S&P500 didn't exist before 1957. If you are referring to the DOW, the average, including those periods, is 7.75% |
I am 61 and have seen it all. |
You’re still cherry picking your window. That number is 1921 to present. The Dow dropped 32% in 1920. |
| I save a lot because I want to retire early. I don't plan on waiting til 65. I'll definitely retire by 50 (42 now), and I'm only waiting that long because I still have kids at home, so I might as well work while I'm here. |
Markets are much deeper/liquid today relative to 1921. We have a central bank that is willing to take unconventional actions to maintain financial stability. 1921 didn't have circuit breakers. My point? 6% assumption of annualized returns is a pretty good benchmark over the lifetime of a portfolio. It's not "conservative" but it's also not wildly optimistic. It's just a solid assumption. I certainly did not predict 25% annualized return in 2020-2021 time period. |
I agree with this. Those who think they will be in a significantly lower tax bracket in retirement are deluded, or will have very low mandatory withrawals. 2022 tax brackets are 22% for MFJ incomes of $83,551 to $178,150 and 24% for MFJ incomes of $178,151 to $340,100. Unless your SS plus RMD are less than $83k combined, you will not see a significant change in your tax rate. DIVIDENDS on the other hand are taxed at only 15% for those whose income is between $83,551 and $517,200. Dividends that accrue in a 401k are taxed at income tax rates upon withdrawal. I also wouldn't be surprised with an overall tax rate increase in the next 20 years. |
Over the last 6 months, absolutely. Yes. |
High COLA areas are not necessarily the only ones with great health care, though. I disagree strongly with that assertion, actually. There are fantastic hospitals in Cincinnati, Nashville, Indianapolis, many, many university towns, Minnesota, etc etc. In fact, high COLA areas like DC have the worst of all worlds. Good hospital, but all the good doctors don't take insurance and you have to pay SO much out of pocket. I'm in Chicago now, and it's night and day. |
We can include the S&P90 to the S&P500 for 150 years of data - the average is still over 6%. I am not cherry picking the window - I just looked up the average over 100 years. |
Or we can do the DOW from 1916 - 2022, and purposefully exclude 1915 because the returns were high that year. That also gets us over 7%. |