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They didn't say they all were late developers but kids born in the second half of the year will on average develop 6 months later than kids born in the first half of the year. So no need to throw the biobanding dead cat on the table. |
This is wrong. If all births were spread evenly across all months l, youâd be correct. Think of births a lot like a pair of dice. 6, 7, and 8 are the most common numbers right? For birth months it tends to be 8, but 7 is very close. On average in a given birth year, kids born in Q3 and Q4 as a group would tend to mature about 7-7.5 months later than a kid born in January. And maybe 1.5 months later than the whole year average. People get so stuck on birthdate almost like an âbest byâ date. RAE correlates with birthdates, but birthdates are not causal to RAE. Bio banding does a good job at highlighting this, because bio banding looks at the maturation rate of the individual compared to the whole group, so a January baby could be bio banded, and a December baby could not qualify. |
As stated earlier, RAE will shift not decrease with change to SY. Which is why the focus has been on trapped players, trying to stem the tide of quiting soccer to justify the change to SY and aligning youth soccer with college grades. The argument to keep CY is based on matching most other countries and aligning youth soccer with US national teams. And avoiding the potential hassle of change but presumably players would not have to change teams, they merely would have the option to play down a year. There will be winners and losers with a change as we see here. The question isn't really what parents and kids want, it is what to clubs and leagues want. |
A kid born 6 months before another will on average mature 6 months sooner. Now your uneven distributions and extreme January examples are the dead cats to support biobanding. Weird. |
Weird? đ At least you understood it. Kudos, youâre 99.9% in DCUM pool. That said, I could give a rats⌠about bio banding. I was just belaboring the point. |
Are they saying eliminate some or all trapped players by going to SY? |
So you have your own facts and data that goes against all the other scientific research to prove RAE is not a thing and Harry Kane, Declan Rice, De Bruyne etc shouldn't have been biobanded but just cut for not being good enough? |
Assuming they do make a change, it would depends on the cutoff date. August 1 seems pretty safe to eliminate all trapped kids from ECNL league play. BUT! If itâs not universal (ie. MLSN, GA too) then youâll end up with he same exact parents complaining that their precious Mini-Messi gets to play with the same team all year, but then they canât play with them at certain tournaments and showcases and have to play with randos a year down, which killed their chance to get that final look from the Stanford coach that would have certainly gotten them an offer. |
The corollary challenge to this is to is also to âname one person that SHOULD HAVE been a pro that because of BY cutoffs just never made it.â |
Why would I want my October early or normal developer 2010 kid playing down with 2011's? |
It is not clear what you are referencing. Please clarify where someone explicitly stated that RAE does not exist. |
Year up rather. |
| This is going to be an absolute mess if it is not universal among ALL US soccer (obvious exception of US Youth National Teams). |
Choice is yours of course but relative age effects, more likely to play with classmates, not have trapped seasons, lines up better with college recruitment. You would have to weigh that vs the challenge of what would be viewed as playing up. One size won't fit all. |
PP already said the kid is not a late developer, so RAE isn't a factor. What does classmates have to do with club soccer? My kids at 17 and 18 have never had multiple classmates on any of their club teams. You know what lines up with college recruitment? TALENT Also being proactive in being seen by the college recruiters for the school you wish to attend. |