A thread of optimism: why do you think Trump will win in 2020?

[Anonymous]

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/04/trump-campaign-2020-election-map-1352437

Looks like the Trump campaign is trying to win in NM,NV and NH because they feel mid west is out of their reach. That’s not good, because AZ,NC and FL are also slipping and GA and TX are statistically tied.

[Anonymous]

Yawn. Come back in a year with analysis of which states are being courted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Those who think Trump will win again in 2020 (a hex on your souls):

What do you make of the 2018 midterms? Do you think that they weren't quire as good for Democrats as the Democrats and regular analysis seems to think?

Do you think that was an anomaly but the women who voted in Democrats in the midterms will come home to the Republican party in 2020 - and if so why?

You don't need to say the word "borders" or "wall" or "ILLEGALS" because I will just assume that is part of your reasoning. I'd really just like to hear how you incorporate the 2018 blue wave into your analysis.

Not as complex as you seem to believe.

Obama had much more of a thumping in 2010, and still won in 2012.

Same with Clinton if I recall.

The mid-terms tend to have lower participation rates and different dynamics than presidential elections.

You are wrong about participation, as the "poorly educated" often are. 2018 midterm participation was the highest in over a century.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/23/trumps-midterm-rebuke-came-most-diverse-electorate-history/?utm_term=.01052bb38f24

Still lower than 2016, right?

"The 2020 U.S. presidential election is rapidly coming into view – and so is the electorate that will determine its outcome.

If these trends continue, it’s a good sign for Democrats; they have a long history of winning over younger voters and women by huge numbers, as well as having a strong hold on urban areas."

https://www.vox.com/2019/4/26/18516645/2018-midterms-voter-turnout-census

"While demographic changes unfold slowly, it’s already clear that the 2020 electorate will be unique in several ways. Non-whites will account for a third of eligible voters – their largest share ever – driven by long-term increases among certain groups, especially Hispanics. At the same time, one-in-ten eligible voters will be members of Generation Z, the Americans who will be between the ages 18 and 23 next year. That will occur as Millennials and all other older generations account for a smaller share of eligible voters than they did in 2016."

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

All that is very true, but remember that in 2016 close to 5 million people voted Libertarian, triple the usual, and many of those may well vote for Trump if Dems select a totalitarian far-left candidate.

[Anonymous]

oof

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Emerson has Biden +12 over Trump in North Carolina

Sanders is +8
Warren is a tie
Mayor Pete is +4

Only potential candidate they have losing to Trump in NC is Harris - there, Trump is +2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:oof

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Emerson has Biden +12 over Trump in North Carolina

Sanders is +8
Warren is a tie
Mayor Pete is +4

Only potential candidate they have losing to Trump in NC is Harris - there, Trump is +2

Polls are just a snapshot in time. Once My dear leader cranks out his uber energetic, charismatic speeches and mesmerizing tweets, he will come right back up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:oof

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Emerson has Biden +12 over Trump in North Carolina

Sanders is +8
Warren is a tie
Mayor Pete is +4

Only potential candidate they have losing to Trump in NC is Harris - there, Trump is +2

Polls are just a snapshot in time. Once My dear leader cranks out his uber energetic, charismatic speeches and mesmerizing tweets, he will come right back up.

[Anonymous]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

Well, do you think Biden voters will vote for the conman, if biden loses? They are simply gonna vote for the winner. The other democrats are only down by low single digits in TX. IN TX, the republican fortress akin to CA, the democratic fortress.

Thank you Mr. Conman Trump for demolishing the GOP fortress and making it easy for Sleepy Joe or Crazy Bernie or Pochahontas to win it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

Well, do you think Biden voters will vote for the conman, if biden loses? They are simply gonna vote for the winner. The other democrats are only down by low single digits in TX. IN TX, the republican fortress akin to CA, the democratic fortress.

Thank you Mr. Conman Trump for demolishing the GOP fortress and making it easy for Sleepy Joe or Crazy Bernie or Pochahontas to win it.

Someone has certainly conned you, but it's not Trump.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

I'm sure you do! My take is that we've been watching Biden for four decades now and we're pretty aware of who he is. And in that context, this is a totally small potatoes story. The main takeaway is that he's developing a plan to deal with climate change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

I'm sure you do! My take is that we've been watching Biden for four decades now and we're pretty aware of who he is. And in that context, this is a totally small potatoes story. The main takeaway is that he's developing a plan to deal with climate change.

Before or after Greenpeace graded him with a D

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

I'm sure you do! My take is that we've been watching Biden for four decades now and we're pretty aware of who he is. And in that context, this is a totally small potatoes story. The main takeaway is that he's developing a plan to deal with climate change.

I just checked on Politico and the story's only #6 most read on the site - behind D-Day, 75 years ago; Republicans threaten revolt, may block Trump's Mexico tariffs; Republicans ready to quash Cuccinelli; Russia's manipulation of Twitter was far vaster than believed; and House contempt resolution targeting Barr, McGahn may ease Democrats' suit for Trump tax returns

The story's only gotten 6,303 Twitter shares, per MuckRack - it's really really not a lot.

I just don't think people care that much - or more to the point, I think the people who do care weren't voting for Biden anyway. I could be wrong! I often am!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

I'm sure you do! My take is that we've been watching Biden for four decades now and we're pretty aware of who he is. And in that context, this is a totally small potatoes story. The main takeaway is that he's developing a plan to deal with climate change.

Before or after Greenpeace graded him with a D

Yeah. There's stuff to attack him on. The thing is that just like we knew Trump was a gross creepy racist grifter and you didn't really care when you cast that vote because none of it came as a surprise - here, we're dealing with a known entity. A flawed guy with a checkered history who is outpolling Trump in Texas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1136326387298648065

Biden is +4 in Texas in a new poll, v Trump - not so good for the other possible D candidates

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2625

Other matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
President Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 44 percent;
Trump at 48 percent to former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke with 45 percent;
Trump with 46 percent to South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg's 44 percent;
Trump at 47 percent to California Sen. Kamala Harris at 43 percent;
Trump with 46 percent and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro at 43 percent.
In the Trump-Biden matchup, women back Biden 54 - 39 percent as men back Trump 50 - 42 percent. White voters back Trump 60 - 33 percent. Biden leads 86 - 7 percent among black voters and 59 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Trump 90 - 8 percent. Biden leads 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 55 - 33 percent among independent voters.

"The numbers are good for Vice President Joseph Biden who dominates the field in a Democratic primary and has the best showing in a head-to-head match-up against President Donald Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Well, first of all, let's see if plagiarist Biden even survives the primary...I frankly have my doubts.

Well, do you think Biden voters will vote for the conman, if biden loses? They are simply gonna vote for the winner. The other democrats are only down by low single digits in TX. IN TX, the republican fortress akin to CA, the democratic fortress.

Thank you Mr. Conman Trump for demolishing the GOP fortress and making it easy for Sleepy Joe or Crazy Bernie or Pochahontas to win it.

Laughable. None of those three will win. They may not even win the dem primary.
Sleepy joe is a car crash; warren is a leftist shrill (and almost completely unlikable), and Bernie’s a socialist. So, no, try again.