What are your chances on the waitlist?

[Anonymous]

So, if you get put on a waitlist at a desirable school, what are your chances for actually getting in if you don't have a sibling? And maybe to ask a little differently: what number do you need to be on the waitlist to even have a shot? Is 1 almost a sure thing? If you're number 10 should you even bother? We're trying to get a PK4 spot for DD, but our preschool needs to know the first week in April if we're going to re-enroll for next year. I guess it will depend on the school, but let's presume it's a highly coveted one?

[Anonymous]

Depends on the school, OP. Sorry, but you need to be more specific.

[Anonymous]

OP, what is your plan for kindergarten? You likely will not have an answer by the first week of April, unless you have safety schools on your list that you're happy to match with (and a number of DCPS schools that don't take OOB kids at PK3 have more slots at PK4). Lots of people have been in your shoes and decide it may be worth losing the preschool deposit or partial tuition if they get into a school with a long-term path. If you are happy with your IB elementary and are just looking for a spot for the PK4 year, you may make a different choice.

[Anonymous]

It just depends on the school and the choices of other people. You can start at #1 and go backwards on the list and never get in. Or the list can move 50 spots or more, if they open a classroom after the lottery-- happens sometimes.

If you want a safety school, we can help you pick based on your location.

[Anonymous]

OP here -- it's one of the JKLMs. We are in-boundary, but no sibling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So, if you get put on a waitlist at a desirable school, what are your chances for actually getting in if you don't have a sibling? And maybe to ask a little differently: what number do you need to be on the waitlist to even have a shot? Is 1 almost a sure thing? If you're number 10 should you even bother? We're trying to get a PK4 spot for DD, but our preschool needs to know the first week in April if we're going to re-enroll for next year. I guess it will depend on the school, but let's presume it's a highly coveted one?

I try to think about it like this.

If you are #10 on the wait list, they need to speak to 9 other families before even calling you for 1 seat. While it is possible that those 9 families might have been accepted somewhere else, the lottery attempts to match individual families with their top-choice schools. If someone is still on a waiting list for the school in question, that is because they prefer it to the other schools they listed, including potentially a school they have already accepted a place at. If I was accepted at my #12 school and suddenly got a call from my #1 school, I would not be declining that spot absent changed circumstances. At a highly coveted school, people will likely have back up plans, but they will happily abandon those plans if they get what they really want. I would personally find it unlikely that you'd get a seat at a highly coveted school with a waitlist number greater than 3, and I certainly would not make financial decisions based on presumed acceptance at a school where I had a waitlist number greater than 5. It's just way more likely that the people ahead of you will jump at a spot that becomes available.

That said, you can look at previous years' lottery data to see how many students with your preference category were admitted from the waitlist.

[Anonymous]

You will get better answers if you say what school - the number of spots and number of siblings and WL movement varies at each.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, if you get put on a waitlist at a desirable school, what are your chances for actually getting in if you don't have a sibling? And maybe to ask a little differently: what number do you need to be on the waitlist to even have a shot? Is 1 almost a sure thing? If you're number 10 should you even bother? We're trying to get a PK4 spot for DD, but our preschool needs to know the first week in April if we're going to re-enroll for next year. I guess it will depend on the school, but let's presume it's a highly coveted one?

I try to think about it like this.

If you are #10 on the wait list, they need to speak to 9 other families before even calling you for 1 seat. While it is possible that those 9 families might have been accepted somewhere else, the lottery attempts to match individual families with their top-choice schools. If someone is still on a waiting list for the school in question, that is because they prefer it to the other schools they listed, including potentially a school they have already accepted a place at. If I was accepted at my #12 school and suddenly got a call from my #1 school, I would not be declining that spot absent changed circumstances. At a highly coveted school, people will likely have back up plans, but they will happily abandon those plans if they get what they really want. I would personally find it unlikely that you'd get a seat at a highly coveted school with a waitlist number greater than 3, and I certainly would not make financial decisions based on presumed acceptance at a school where I had a waitlist number greater than 5. It's just way more likely that the people ahead of you will jump at a spot that becomes available.

That said, you can look at previous years' lottery data to see how many students with your preference category were admitted from the waitlist.

Yes, this is what common sense told me too. I just wasn't sure if there was something I was missing, since people seem to say the waitlist truly "moves." It's not worth the gamble at the end of the day. We'll see what number we get in a month.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So, if you get put on a waitlist at a desirable school, what are your chances for actually getting in if you don't have a sibling? And maybe to ask a little differently: what number do you need to be on the waitlist to even have a shot? Is 1 almost a sure thing? If you're number 10 should you even bother? We're trying to get a PK4 spot for DD, but our preschool needs to know the first week in April if we're going to re-enroll for next year. I guess it will depend on the school, but let's presume it's a highly coveted one?

I try to think about it like this.

If you are #10 on the wait list, they need to speak to 9 other families before even calling you for 1 seat. While it is possible that those 9 families might have been accepted somewhere else, the lottery attempts to match individual families with their top-choice schools. If someone is still on a waiting list for the school in question, that is because they prefer it to the other schools they listed, including potentially a school they have already accepted a place at. If I was accepted at my #12 school and suddenly got a call from my #1 school, I would not be declining that spot absent changed circumstances. At a highly coveted school, people will likely have back up plans, but they will happily abandon those plans if they get what they really want. I would personally find it unlikely that you'd get a seat at a highly coveted school with a waitlist number greater than 3, and I certainly would not make financial decisions based on presumed acceptance at a school where I had a waitlist number greater than 5. It's just way more likely that the people ahead of you will jump at a spot that becomes available.

That said, you can look at previous years' lottery data to see how many students with your preference category were admitted from the waitlist.

Yes, this is what common sense told me too. I just wasn't sure if there was something I was missing, since people seem to say the waitlist truly "moves." It's not worth the gamble at the end of the day. We'll see what number we get in a month.

Without knowing specifically which JKLM school you are referring to, I would say that in your position, unless my waitlist number was < 3, I would re-enroll in preschool. Do you have to pay the whole year, or just a deposit? You might get off the wait list, but you might still need aftercare at the new school, and if I'd already paid a year of tuition, I would be reluctant to eat that cost AND pay for aftercare. Since you will be guaranteed a seat in kindergarten regardless of sibling status, I would only consider it worthwhile to accept a waitlist offer if I'd sunk less into private tuition than the amount I would save going public, if that makes sense. Sorry, I haven't had a full cup of coffee yet.

[Anonymous]

Look at the previous year's data to find out how far into the waitlist your school went for prek 4. Here is the link: https://public.tableau.com/profile/aaron2446#!/vizhome/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData/MSDCPublicDisplay

Last's year's data is a pretty good guide, though things change every year.

[Anonymous]

I entered the lottery a couple of years ago for my kid. PK4 at a JKLM school, in bounds, no sibling. Our preschool required the re-enrollment deposit earlier than you, in February (remainder due at end of May).

I looked at the numbers and figured it was definitely less than a 50% chance my child would get a PK4 spot. So we paid the deposit. And as it turned out, we did get a spot. Yes, we lost the deposit, but it was the price we paid for making sure my child had plans for that year.

Later, we saw the actual numbers of the year we got a spot and I realized as an in-bound, no sibling child, our chances were more around 30%. We were lucky. Now the PK4 have one less classroom than my year, and if the numbers are similar, the chances for no-sibling kids are much lower. I'd recommend re-enrolling your child into their current school so you have a back-up plan.

FWIW, my child's class got a new student in January, so they do work through the list over the course of the year. If your preschool has a staggered payment plan maybe that would be an option? In case you get waitlisted and a spot opens up later in the year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here -- it's one of the JKLMs. We are in-boundary, but no sibling.

What school OP? No one is going to ID you here.

If, say, Janney -- I'd say there is a much much smaller chance because it has only 3 PKs and lots of demand.

If, say, Lafayette -- I'd say there is a much larger chance because they do usually make it through their waitlist, though it may be well into the summer or even fall.

[Anonymous]

You won't know until you know your WL number (and maybe not even then). One thing that might lessen the blow if you do lose your deposit is that I think non-profit preschools typically let you convert your lost deposit into a donation to the school.

[Anonymous]

You just can't say from year to year. The year we entered the lottery, Mundo Verde opened up 2 additional PK3 classes after the lottery ended, and waitlists moved like crazy all over. The next year, it crawled.

[Anonymous]

All you would lose is a deposit, right? that would be nothing to then entering free public school.