Universal Standard Wage

[Anonymous]

Increasingly the conversation in tech circles is turning towards universal standard wage. With driving being automated and also delivery services, a huge number of jobs are going to be automated. Universal wage seems unavoidable in the near future. I cannot see it being accepted here in the United States. What do you think?

[Anonymous]

Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

[Anonymous]

In 2013, GDP was $53k per capita. No matter what the distribution is, it won't be a huge number.

[Anonymous]

Well you just took all the fun out of being a pearl-clutching, nihilist geek. Happy f'ing Saturday to you too!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

Wow -- such faith in humanity! Why am I sure the flipside of that thinking is "and if they need health care, they can find a way to pay for it"?

[Anonymous]

This would only work if your strictly regulated how many children people could have. It would probably require a one child policy for many. Otherwise unproductive people would just breed like vermin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

all may be true but right now a whole hella lot of folks are unemployed....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

all may be true but right now a whole hella lot of folks are unemployed....

Right. Universal wage will cover them when for whatever reason they won't or can't retrain for work. I don't understand why many people didn't retrain or move for work?

[Anonymous]

NP here. This video is a must watch for this topic.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

My personal take on the video:
I believe it can happen, slowly. I believe the slow effects of its are already here--tension between classes (hey, even races or legal status). Tension in education. We're all fighting for our piece, and fighting for our kids.

However, it disturbs me that people are so ready to lean into this huge, fundamental change to society. Whatever the change is, it's huge. We're not actually talking about it......except some people talk about Universal Income. But they are not talking about the rest....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NP here. This video is a must watch for this topic.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

My personal take on the video:
I believe it can happen, slowly. I believe the slow effects of its are already here--tension between classes (hey, even races or legal status). Tension in education. We're all fighting for our piece, and fighting for our kids.

However, it disturbs me that people are so ready to lean into this huge, fundamental change to society. Whatever the change is, it's huge. We're not actually talking about it......except some people talk about Universal Income. But they are not talking about the rest....

It is going to happen the trucking industry is automating. From what I have read, automatic trucks are being phased in soon. Amazon has opened their first automated store. DC City Council has signed a deal with robot delivery companies to operate in the District.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NP here. This video is a must watch for this topic.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

My personal take on the video:
I believe it can happen, slowly. I believe the slow effects of its are already here--tension between classes (hey, even races or legal status). Tension in education. We're all fighting for our piece, and fighting for our kids.

However, it disturbs me that people are so ready to lean into this huge, fundamental change to society. Whatever the change is, it's huge. We're not actually talking about it......except some people talk about Universal Income. But they are not talking about the rest....

It is going to happen the trucking industry is automating. From what I have read, automatic trucks are being phased in soon. Amazon has opened their first automated store. DC City Council has signed a deal with robot delivery companies to operate in the District.

Oh and thank you for posting the video! Interesting.

[Anonymous]

ubi will happen

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:ubi will happen

It has to. 50% of people will be out of a job by 2050, thanks for AI and Robotics. Who is going to pay for the crappy fast food and Walmart goods without UBI? The companies automated their business still need consumers.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

Wow -- such faith in humanity! Why am I sure the flipside of that thinking is "and if they need health care, they can find a way to pay for it"?

Automation can bring the cost of health care down, just like anything else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hearing techs saying that humans are going to run out of work to do reminds me of the Patent Commissioner Henry Ellsworth, who predicted in 1843 that we would soon face a day where there would be nothing left to invent.

The premise is that increasing automation will leave people with nothing left to do. From a historical perspective, increasing automation usually results in humans finding more and more valuable things to do with their labor.

Around 100 years ago, half of us were farmers. Now that number is about 2 or 3%. They didn't run out of things to do. They went into manufacturing. And as a result, most every US household today has a car, a washing machine, several TVs, vacuum cleaners, AC, dishwashers, and microwaves.

In 1950, about 1/3 of us were in manufacturing. Today that number is about 20%. Even if 3/4 of those jobs disappeared in a few decades, it would be a smaller feat to get them back to work than it was to move farmers into new jobs.

Technologists are great at imagining what their technologies can do. But the rest of the human race has imaginations of their own. They will find value to add.

all may be true but right now a whole hella lot of folks are unemployed....

Our unemployment rate is not very high. 4.6%. Even if you add half of the drop in labor participation since 2008, that's only 6.1% That's what it was at the end of Reagan's seventh year in office, and we all said it was great.