For fellow housing bears

[Anonymous]

One thing to keep in mind is that asset managers seem to be willing to fill the void of the middle class and their declining real wages. The ability to buy properties and securitize the rental streams changes housing economics dramatically from even 15 years ago.

In fact, if we do have another price correction, investors will step in to ensure that values do not fall precipitously. They want to ensure the value of their existing holdings. And if they can buy at a discount and add to their rental pools, even better (from their perspective).

I wouldn't be too bearish on housing because large banks and investors want to gobble up whatever they can in urban areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Prices are still below 2005 in almost all metro neighborhoods .

Interest rates were 50 percent higher in 2005.

Much more affordable now.

2005 was also bubblicious. Why do you keep talking about 2005 like it was some kind of banner year? It wasn't.

Of course it was a bubble , but this is 12 years later and prices haven't even made it back with massively lower interest rates so now is way not a bubble. In past bubbles prices tend to shoot up after the ten year period it took to recover previous highs so historically we are on the verge of a price escalation . The economy also feels poised for big growth after a long period of malaise.

Massively lower interest rates allowed the current run up. Perhaps housing prices shouldn't be at the current levels.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without trying to read the tea leaves on proposed budget cuts, my take on the DC area is that housing costs are way beyond historical norms, relative to HHI. This has been made possible by abnormally low interest rates. When rates rise (and they will) to historical norms (the average thirty year rate is 8.5% or higher) housing will be hit and probably hard in this area.

Households can and have borrowed four and five years' income at three percent interest for housing. That will be impossible at 8.5% or higher. Ergo, prices will come down. The math determines it, not some agent's opinion.

DING, DING, DING! Virtually everyone I know sitting in a 1.8 million house had one or both of the following:

1) "Help from family" - which is to say, money that was likely not earned in the region
2) The enjoyment of some ridiculous equity explosion, that they kept rolling forward to properties - which is to say, they could never pay to house themselves and live a good life in the region, while saving for a $700,000 down payment. They "saved" for their down payment by living in a house that just magically increased in value.

DC salaries, when you look at other ultra expensive cities are very low. We don't have loads of hedge fund folks or techies who are getting multmillion dollar bonuses, and we consider "rich" people to be big law attorneys. Further, government salaries are capped very low at $200k.

Also, Millennials have absolutely no money. Yeah, sure, a few of them do. I am a Millennial and it is very hard to break into the housing market, and no Millennial is going to enjoy the easy equity Gen X and Boomers took for granted. Millennials also aren't willing to buy properties they don't like. Millennials spend all their money on chai lattes and Chop't salads, and they want the best of everything with minimal inconvenience. In 10 years, do you think they're going to line up to buy your crappy new build which will by then be dated and probably falling apart?

I love that you started this thread, OP. I am a home owner (hot area, close in burb, straight 10s on the schools), and I'll still be delighted when this ridiculous market right-sizes.

Umm excuse me but gen X got screwed by the housing crash, we didn't get "easy equity".

Exactly what I was going to say - Gen X always gets screwed - always.

Please explain. You've had it worse than boomers, but boomers had it extremely easy. Housing prices were far cheaper when you were buying your homes the late 90s/early 2000s.

Just as one example, your college was still relatively cheap. I'm an older millennial, and even I can admit that the older millennials have it much better than the youngest millennials. The cost of college has skyrocketed since I graduated in 2008.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without trying to read the tea leaves on proposed budget cuts, my take on the DC area is that housing costs are way beyond historical norms, relative to HHI. This has been made possible by abnormally low interest rates. When rates rise (and they will) to historical norms (the average thirty year rate is 8.5% or higher) housing will be hit and probably hard in this area.

Households can and have borrowed four and five years' income at three percent interest for housing. That will be impossible at 8.5% or higher. Ergo, prices will come down. The math determines it, not some agent's opinion.

DING, DING, DING! Virtually everyone I know sitting in a 1.8 million house had one or both of the following:

1) "Help from family" - which is to say, money that was likely not earned in the region
2) The enjoyment of some ridiculous equity explosion, that they kept rolling forward to properties - which is to say, they could never pay to house themselves and live a good life in the region, while saving for a $700,000 down payment. They "saved" for their down payment by living in a house that just magically increased in value.

DC salaries, when you look at other ultra expensive cities are very low. We don't have loads of hedge fund folks or techies who are getting multmillion dollar bonuses, and we consider "rich" people to be big law attorneys. Further, government salaries are capped very low at $200k.

Also, Millennials have absolutely no money. Yeah, sure, a few of them do. I am a Millennial and it is very hard to break into the housing market, and no Millennial is going to enjoy the easy equity Gen X and Boomers took for granted. Millennials also aren't willing to buy properties they don't like. Millennials spend all their money on chai lattes and Chop't salads, and they want the best of everything with minimal inconvenience. In 10 years, do you think they're going to line up to buy your crappy new build which will by then be dated and probably falling apart?

I love that you started this thread, OP. I am a home owner (hot area, close in burb, straight 10s on the schools), and I'll still be delighted when this ridiculous market right-sizes.

Umm excuse me but gen X got screwed by the housing crash, we didn't get "easy equity".

Exactly what I was going to say - Gen X always gets screwed - always.

Please explain. You've had it worse than boomers, but boomers had it extremely easy. Housing prices were far cheaper when you were buying your homes the late 90s/early 2000s.

Just as one example, your college was still relatively cheap. I'm an older millennial, and even I can admit that the older millennials have it much better than the youngest millennials. The cost of college has skyrocketed since I graduated in 2008.

Maybe you're right for early gen x'ers but those of us that were late gen x bought at the top of the market right before the crash.

[Anonymous]

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

Join us against the boomers. Stop paying 600k for their 50 year old crap shacks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

Join us against the boomers. Stop paying 600k for their 50 year old crap shacks.

Ok, but you are gonna pay 800k for my crap shack.
Xo,
Gen x

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

Join us against the boomers. Stop paying 600k for their 50 year old crap shacks.

Ok, but you are gonna pay 800k for my crap shack.
Xo,
Gen x

I will buy in the next buyers market and only tear downs for this entitled millenial. I will have new or nothing!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

Join us against the boomers. Stop paying 600k for their 50 year old crap shacks.

Ok, but you are gonna pay 800k for my crap shack.
Xo,
Gen x

I will buy in the next buyers market and only tear downs for this entitled millenial. I will have new or nothing!

Sweetie by the next time a buyer's market comes around you'll be buying into assisted living.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing to keep in mind is that asset managers seem to be willing to fill the void of the middle class and their declining real wages. The ability to buy properties and securitize the rental streams changes housing economics dramatically from even 15 years ago.

In fact, if we do have another price correction, investors will step in to ensure that values do not fall precipitously. They want to ensure the value of their existing holdings. And if they can buy at a discount and add to their rental pools, even better (from their perspective).

I wouldn't be too bearish on housing because large banks and investors want to gobble up whatever they can in urban areas.

Do you think FIRPTA will be a limiting factor?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Federal budget cuts will result in a significant loss of jobs in the area. The national economy will continue to improve, and interest rates will rise nationally. These two forces will pull down demand and increase the cost of buying, respectively. Housing prices will at minimum not go up as much as some may think and could actually go down locally.

It will take a lot more than that to drain the swamp.

What I find more disgusting than house prices is the cost of services in this area. I can do much more for 1/2 the price elsewhere, and get a better job done. $2,500 to have people come, cut the tops off of weeds and mulch, leaving me with the same darn issue in a month's time? Just no.

I am now hand-weeding every bed and hand-mulching with cedar. Got done with one side, only to have the mowers cut the grass and throw grass-clippings all over the newly mulched beds. GRRR.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56fad298e4b0143a9b497c9c

Join us against the boomers. Stop paying 600k for their 50 year old crap shacks.

Ok, but you are gonna pay 800k for my crap shack.
Xo,
Gen x

I will buy in the next buyers market and only tear downs for this entitled millenial. I will have new or nothing!

Sweetie by the next time a buyer's market comes around you'll be buying into assisted living.

Thats 50 years of a sellers market. Think youre wrong but thats the whole point of this discussion

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Federal budget cuts will result in a significant loss of jobs in the area. The national economy will continue to improve, and interest rates will rise nationally. These two forces will pull down demand and increase the cost of buying, respectively. Housing prices will at minimum not go up as much as some may think and could actually go down locally.

It will take a lot more than that to drain the swamp.

What I find more disgusting than house prices is the cost of services in this area. I can do much more for 1/2 the price elsewhere, and get a better job done. $2,500 to have people come, cut the tops off of weeds and mulch, leaving me with the same darn issue in a month's time? Just no.

I am now hand-weeding every bed and hand-mulching with cedar. Got done with one side, only to have the mowers cut the grass and throw grass-clippings all over the newly mulched beds. GRRR.

Services in DC are horrible. It's one of the reasons we left for the burbs, where they are much better. For whatever reason it seems like service providers in DC have no interest in doing things well.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Federal budget cuts will result in a significant loss of jobs in the area. The national economy will continue to improve, and interest rates will rise nationally. These two forces will pull down demand and increase the cost of buying, respectively. Housing prices will at minimum not go up as much as some may think and could actually go down locally.

It will take a lot more than that to drain the swamp.

What I find more disgusting than house prices is the cost of services in this area. I can do much more for 1/2 the price elsewhere, and get a better job done. $2,500 to have people come, cut the tops off of weeds and mulch, leaving me with the same darn issue in a month's time? Just no.

I am now hand-weeding every bed and hand-mulching with cedar. Got done with one side, only to have the mowers cut the grass and throw grass-clippings all over the newly mulched beds. GRRR.

For a variety of reasons, we as homeowners are doing more ourselves too. Certainly on yard work, but also on interior maintenance like whole house hardwood floor refinishing, painting, minor plumbing, insulation etc. We started to when we found we were paying more for less quality.

[Anonymous]

What I find more disgusting than house prices is the cost of services in this area. I can do much more for 1/2 the price elsewhere, and get a better job done. $2,500 to have people come, cut the tops off of weeds and mulch, leaving me with the same darn issue in a month's time? Just no.

I am now hand-weeding every bed and hand-mulching with cedar. Got done with one side, only to have the mowers cut the grass and throw grass-clippings all over the newly mulched beds. GRRR.

Boomer here. We never had people doing our lawn work growing up and we don't now. We also paint and do maintenance ourselves (like our "greatest generation" parents did). Heck, I'm 58 and my husband is 60 and we just did our own mulching and weeding. We don't pay for fancy gyms . . . we get our workout in the yard. Our parents (the Depression/WW2 kids) showed us how to do all of that. We also didn't grow up with fancy windows (we had to change the screens and storms in the fall and spring---it was a big job). So maybe you can understand why we think the millennials are a bit "whiny". You all need to learn to do things for yourselves. Believe it or not we cleaned our own houses too. Among many other things.