Moving to San Francisco. Help us settle our housing debate!

[Anonymous]

Knowing the history of the SF Housing Market and inventory (or lack thereof) is why people are saying it won't go down. Their has been an upward progression for many year prior to the "tech" industry and it has been difficult to buy a nice house at a bargain price in SF city limits since before many of the techies were born.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knowing the history of the SF Housing Market and inventory (or lack thereof) is why people are saying it won't go down. Their has been an upward progression for many year prior to the "tech" industry and it has been difficult to buy a nice house at a bargain price in SF city limits since before many of the techies were born.

*There

[Anonymous]

Thanks to everyone for making this a tremendously interesting and useful thread! -The OP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:A PP here. We've had three long distance moves -- one from here to Boston, one back here from CA and one within the DC area. The only bad house purchase we made was when we bought before moving to an area (when we moved back here during market peak). Had to wait a year to buy in Boston because inventory was so tight, and just moved for the second time in this area, we really knew the market and were able to move quickly when a well placed house came up. That's very difficult to do long distance or on a week long look for housing trip. Will the company pay for a few months of temporary housing?

We do have temp housing for 3 months and are thinking about spending a couple nights in the neighborhood at an air bnb to get a better feel for weather and commute. -OP

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Knowing the history of the SF Housing Market and inventory (or lack thereof) is why people are saying it won't go down. Their has been an upward progression for many year prior to the "tech" industry and it has been difficult to buy a nice house at a bargain price in SF city limits since before many of the techies were born.

Prices plunged after the 1989 earthquake. If another one of those happens, you'll see that again.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knowing the history of the SF Housing Market and inventory (or lack thereof) is why people are saying it won't go down. Their has been an upward progression for many year prior to the "tech" industry and it has been difficult to buy a nice house at a bargain price in SF city limits since before many of the techies were born.

Prices plunged after the 1989 earthquake. If another one of those happens, you'll see that again.

It still wasn't so low that they were virtually giving away houses. And that was primarily in the areas hardest hit by the earthquake like North Beach. SF Natives were not swayed by an earthquake (excuse the pun). If anything the housing prices were higher than ever when they did go up again.

[Anonymous]

I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

Did that happen in San Francisco or someplace else?

[Anonymous]

...and you can take this and apply it however you see fit:

http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-world/ci_28647039/glenn-beck-names-15-cities-that-you-dont

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

Did that happen in San Francisco or someplace else?

She's tying to be tactful but grandmas about to kick it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

Did that happen in San Francisco or someplace else?

She's tying to be tactful but grandmas about to kick it.

That was my read on it also!!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I would buy for all the reasons 9:02 and your DH suggest, at least if you intend to be there for at least 5+ years. In a lot of cities getting a better idea of neighborhoods is a good idea, but for as crazy as the housing market is in SF, just look at the rental market. Your rent for a comparable place will be much larger than your mortgage, with 1 bedroom apartments (and even some studios in trendy neighborhoods near transit) renting for 3K and all. People say one of these days the housing market is going to crash, but it keeps going up every year. I think it's unlikely to go down--it just might stop going up at the obscene rate it has been for the past couple decades. The combination of weather, access to natural beauty, the job market, and geography (you can't exactly build out into the sea) all lend itself towards always being a desirable place to be with limited supply.

Expect the housing search to be horrendous, and to have a nasty bidding war on each house, especially since you are in a competitive price range. You might get lucky, but you might decided buying in SF is not for you after several rounds of this craziness, and look at some of the suburbs (although the bidding war craziness is bad in desirable suburban areas as well). It will definitely go above the list price. Honestly, Berkeley/Oakland commuting via BART is just as convenient, if not more than many neighborhoods in SF for access to downtown and there are some great neighborhoods where you can get much more for 1 million. If you are your DH are in tech, seriously consider looking in the pennisula, since there is a lot of job hopping in that sector and it allows access to job centers in both SF and SV (I have some friends who work in tech who bought in Berkeley and have mixed feelings about it, because they love the community and hated the suburban feel of the pennisula, but it severely restricts their employment prospects if they want to not have a six hour commute daily).

Whether or not you can get anything to your standards for ~1 million really depends on your expectations. Houses are much smaller in the city in terms of square footage (as tends to be the case in all urban neighborhoods, for the most part), and you may need to settle for only 2 bedrooms/a neighborhood that isn't trendy/ a house that needs significant work. Good luck.

This is a helpful post. I echo the issue about buying in Berkeley/Oakland and then finding a job in SV. That's an ok reason to rent, if you love Berkeley but aren't sure where work will be long term. I know someone who bought in Berkeley some years ago, but when old job downtown ended, found a new one around Palo Alto/Menlo Park. Price on the house has gone up incredibly, so good news there, but the commute is murder. Car is the only realistic option and it takes forever. They much prefer the Berkeley vibe so I think they will stay put, but will probably look for other work just due to commute.

About SV, I wish it wasn't so suburban. The only reprieve is the perfect weather. Maybe it is because I am not a computer programmer, I don't know. I guess it would be an exciting place if I was one. I am not alone. Now Google and the other companies have to run those commuter buses from SF, because none of the young people these days want to live in SV. Even Jony Ive lives in SF and commutes an hour each way to and from Cupertino, every day, by car!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Knowing the history of the SF Housing Market and inventory (or lack thereof) is why people are saying it won't go down. Their has been an upward progression for many year prior to the "tech" industry and it has been difficult to buy a nice house at a bargain price in SF city limits since before many of the techies were born.

Prices plunged after the 1989 earthquake. If another one of those happens, you'll see that again.

It still wasn't so low that they were virtually giving away houses. And that was primarily in the areas hardest hit by the earthquake like North Beach. SF Natives were not swayed by an earthquake (excuse the pun). If anything the housing prices were higher than ever when they did go up again.

SF and SV were booming soon after (remember the 90s). I agree SF is a very nice place to live, but can they weather his job going with the pop when they are clearly over extending if looking at a $1M budget. If they can buy, and then buy again even without selling the first place bc they have to move for a new job then that's fine. This looks like a big bet on a new job in a new city simply because of FOMO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

Did that happen in San Francisco or someplace else?

Somewhere else, why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm surprised no one as questioned this "family circumstance" that will yield money for you.
If this circumstance, as you describe it, doesn't happen, will you still be ok financially?
I would be concerned with overbuying before the money is in my bank account

Also, the commute thing would kill me if I miscalculated the commute time after I bought. It happened to us once, and it was really difficult to reconcile that a supposed 45 minute commute was actually typically 1 1/2 hours. Just driving it a couple times was not enough.

Did that happen in San Francisco or someplace else?

She's tying to be tactful but grandmas about to kick it.

That was my read on it also!!!!

I'm the PP that questioned it, and also read it like that, but I would be wary of assuming you are getting money and counting on that money until it's in your bank account. There have to be a hundred threads on people changing wills, contesting wills, etc.
I brought it up to urge caution at buying if it is dependent on that money.
(FWIW, my family member lost $500k when an estranged son of the deceased contested the will and lost)