Can anyone quantify exactly why international stocks are outperforming S&P 500?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So where are we in the rotation cycle guys? Late cycle? There is a flight from tech to emerging markets, developed international, and soon it’ll be consumer staples and utilities…

Anyway, I’ve been buying Gold, EWY, FLKR, AVDV, EMEQ in the meantime while they’re skyrocketing. Maybe in a year we’ll be at the late cycle more. Then recession.

No, it's close to mid-early-late cycle. Once you see the rotation of Venus through the lunar bridging, you can see it very clearly.

What’s your motivation for these facetious replies? We are clearly in a recession. It is clearly due to uncertainty in tarrifs and supply chain, caused by the white house shoot from the hip style. We all feel high inflation and unemployment, even though the BLS won't report it. Buying global, which basically mean US multinational and Europe, makes perfect sense. It'll last until the shooting from the hip stops.

DP. I agree we are in recession, but I sold out of my international a couple of weeks ago. Mainly in cash with TLT and a small amount of US equity. The reason I sold out of international is that historically it tends to get dragged into US stock market woes (see 2008). The emerging markets also have gone essentially parabolic, which typically doesn't end well.

[Anonymous]

Y’all can bash Trump all you want but I’m making serious coin (multiple 7 figures) in the market with US stocks since he started his 2nd term. But then again I also made multiple 7 figure when Bidum was POTUS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Other markets are just playing catch-up to US market.

And that’s all?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So where are we in the rotation cycle guys? Late cycle? There is a flight from tech to emerging markets, developed international, and soon it’ll be consumer staples and utilities…

Anyway, I’ve been buying Gold, EWY, FLKR, AVDV, EMEQ in the meantime while they’re skyrocketing. Maybe in a year we’ll be at the late cycle more. Then recession.

No, it's close to mid-early-late cycle. Once you see the rotation of Venus through the lunar bridging, you can see it very clearly.

What’s your motivation for these facetious replies? We are clearly in a recession. It is clearly due to uncertainty in tarrifs and supply chain, caused by the white house shoot from the hip style. We all feel high inflation and unemployment, even though the BLS won't report it. Buying global, which basically mean US multinational and Europe, makes perfect sense. It'll last until the shooting from the hip stops.

DP. I agree we are in recession, but I sold out of my international a couple of weeks ago. Mainly in cash with TLT and a small amount of US equity. The reason I sold out of international is that historically it tends to get dragged into US stock market woes (see 2008). The emerging markets also have gone essentially parabolic, which typically doesn't end well.

I too want to move to a money market account but it’s so hard to know when to do that lol. Things are still soaring with emerging markets and folks are buying up EWY and South Korean semi stocks. Every time I tell myself to pull out of the market for a bit, it continues to go higher, at least internationally, that I don’t and keep chasing gains upward. Who knows when the recession will be announced annd public perception turns sour and and then we see deep red market days etc. It’s hard to say. Next quarter? 2027? They predicated a recession last year but who knows. Maybe post mid terms. Ya got me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Historically, it wavers back and forth. Investing in international stocks is a way to diversify and temper large downs and ups. Plus, currently, S&P 500 is not considered to be diversified as the top few companies dominate the value.

You’re right. VOO and SPY only has a .60% yearly gain. Whereas the RSP, equal weight 500, has a 7.00% gain. I have both an international dividend etf and the vanguard total international etf. So far, They are both doing better than my VOO and SCHD dividend fund.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:People who focus on a snapshot in time and not broader picture are doomed to lose money.

Anyway, diversify if you want. There funds that track international stocks. I have some in such funds.

So this is a blip? An anomaly? All will flow back to us stocks eventually? This is not part of a larger trade pattern?

If you are this worried, you are doomed to lose money. There are some years when international markets do better. Has always been the case, Trump or not. Just diversify intelligently. With proper advice.

No, I’m specifically asking you, you really think that they’ll be an inflow of capital of the US after this? I’m just very curious so you think at the end of the day the US will always be the dominant stock market with all that’s going on.

Can tell you're not a serious investor nor looking for a serious discussion. But here's a few things.

1. US is by far the most dynamic and resilient economy in the world. Look at how easily it was able to absorb the shock effects of the tariffs.

2. The second most important economy is a highly untrustworthy manipulative mercantilist economy run by a brutal dictatorship.

3. The other developed economies are OK, meaning not amazing and often moribund with little dynamism and plenty of growth strangling regulations.

You do what you want. Good luck.

And you are clearly MAGA and not aware of broader geopolitics and its effect on the US economy. Trump is viewed as unstable and unreliable with authoritarian tendencies. The world views the ICE killings and USA’s support of Israel’s human rights’ violations as similar to China. China has gotten a major PR boost from Trump. They look much more reliable and predictable. The world is moving away from the USA, as they should. We don’t act reliable —or as an ally. Vance and crew have said as much, proudly. Wall Street can only be in denial for so long. Look at the first two months of the year. Are we winning yet?

1) In January 2026, Canada and China concluded a preliminary trade agreement to ease bilateral tensions and boost commerce, lowering tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods (canola, seafood) in exchange for reduced tariffs on up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles (EVs).

As of February 2026, the European Union and China have reached a framework agreement allowing Chinese EV manufacturers to avoid punitive tariffs (up to 35.3% added to a 10% duty) by committing to minimum import prices and, in some cases, investing in the EU.

The big difference is that the US can vote in a new president every four years if they want, and presidents are term limited. The US has many levels of checks and balances built into the system.

China has none of the above.

Sir you are correct. As someone from a so called "democratic" African country, I think the US has no parallel in terms of checks and balances.

And you think voting is going smoothly this year? You think it’ll be all hunky dory and no questioning of the results? And you also think the the US stock market will always remain #1? I’m so interested in all these thoughts because they really expose and interesting state.

I am the PP. In fairness all I have known growing up was living in a very corrupt and poorly ran country. Yet we didn't fall into civil war and still haven't (knock on woods).

What's happening in the US is nothing compared to what a lot of African countries are experiencing with their so called "democratic" governments.

Americans have always been privileged and they think what they are going through right now is the end of the world.

It's not the end of the world. You have a very resilient country with proven checks and balances. Don't throw that extremely privilege position you are in because of pessimism.

The US will be fine.

I think many Americans would feel more secure if the checkers were actually doing their job and balancing the other(s), but that’s not happening. It’s reflective in our fiscal policy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Foreign investors, including big pension and sovereign wealth funds, hold 18 to 28% of the S&P. Many are reducing exposure to US mega cap tech stocks due to overstretched valuations, volatility and the need to diversify risk amid geopolitical and economic concerns. There are expectations US interest rates will fall, weakening the dollar and therefore the value of their investments and returns.

At the same time, many US investment funds are also diverting funds to countries like Korea and Brazil.

NP. Yes, Sweden, Finland and Denmark are divesting their pension funds from US treasuries, citing US financial instability and Trump’s desire to take over Greenland. I’m sure if we as a country continue the course, there will be more countries that follow.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/big-north-european-investors-reassess-us-exposure-geopolitical-risk-mounts-2026-01-22/

[Anonymous]

[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]The dollar is falling and our business climate is horrible on main street. The regulatory environment is chaotic and driven by executive mansion caprice. Trump is making the US unprediictable and markets don't like that. [/quote]

least MAGA person ever, but trump is the same trump he's always been. [b]International isn't really outperforming by that much so the premise itself is a bit suspect.[/b] This whole weak USD argument is putting the dollar back where it was a whole 3-4 years ago.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/iDGlUzo.png[/img][/quote]
You’re absolutely and totally wrong. VXUS ytd return is 11.09% and 1 year return 39.64%. Compare that to VTI ytd 1.04% and one year return of 17.05%. You don’t have to believe me, you can look it up yourself. I use Bloomberg and yahoo finance for expediency. There are other sources if you don’t trust those, but there has been a huge difference between the international and us markets this past year.

[Anonymous]

You’re absolutely and totally wrong. VXUS ytd return is 11.09% and 1 year return 39.64%. Compare that to VTI ytd 1.04% and one year return of 17.05%. You don’t have to believe me, you can look it up yourself. I use Bloomberg and yahoo finance for expediency. There are other sources if you don’t trust those, but there has been a huge difference between the international and us markets this past year. [/quote]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'll add for OP, that if you want to understand, you need to start watching European news. Our US news media is doing a horrible job of informing us about major news events. The gaps are huuge.

And I don't mean right leaning vs left leaning. The whole emphasis on political lean has filtered important news out and selected political entertainment in.

Where do you find this European financial news on your cable channel

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So where are we in the rotation cycle guys? Late cycle? There is a flight from tech to emerging markets, developed international, and soon it’ll be consumer staples and utilities…

Anyway, I’ve been buying Gold, EWY, FLKR, AVDV, EMEQ in the meantime while they’re skyrocketing. Maybe in a year we’ll be at the late cycle more. Then recession.

No, it's close to mid-early-late cycle. Once you see the rotation of Venus through the lunar bridging, you can see it very clearly.

What’s your motivation for these facetious replies? We are clearly in a recession. It is clearly due to uncertainty in tarrifs and supply chain, caused by the white house shoot from the hip style. We all feel high inflation and unemployment, even though the BLS won't report it. Buying global, which basically mean US multinational and Europe, makes perfect sense. It'll last until the shooting from the hip stops.

Oh I agree with you. I think anyone trying to divine any BS "cycles" or real reasons is dumb.

The reason is clear. The Rest of World has options besides dealing with an unreliable country that throws out negotiated treaties with every new threat. They are rewiring the global trade network around us.

Please - California ALONE has the 4th highest GDP in the world. Not saying it will stay that way forever, but that unwind is going to take a while.

If it could be undone which is doubtful it would take 20-40 years at best. There is no option for the dollar. There is no better option out there. That does not mean it was as good as it was but it means there are no other options. China is not a real option for the world and will never be. The EU cannot pull itself together and even they know that. It has less to do with this country and more to do with everyone else. Global trade is changing but the world does not really have other options.

Well they are testing those waters and trying to find out if they’re tethered to the USA forever. They want options.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Other markets are just playing catch-up to US market.

Okay? And is that a bad thing? That means the international markets have a lot more room to grow your portfolio while the US market is slowing down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'll add for OP, that if you want to understand, you need to start watching European news. Our US news media is doing a horrible job of informing us about major news events. The gaps are huuge.

And I don't mean right leaning vs left leaning. The whole emphasis on political lean has filtered important news out and selected political entertainment in.

Where do you find this European financial news on your cable channel

Not financial news. Financial will always be influenced by hedge fund managers trying to convince you to buy what they're secretly selling or sell what they want to buy.

Watch regular European news. BBC or anything you can find in English. Our news here in the US has become infotainment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Foreign investors, including big pension and sovereign wealth funds, hold 18 to 28% of the S&P. Many are reducing exposure to US mega cap tech stocks due to overstretched valuations, volatility and the need to diversify risk amid geopolitical and economic concerns. There are expectations US interest rates will fall, weakening the dollar and therefore the value of their investments and returns.

At the same time, many US investment funds are also diverting funds to countries like Korea and Brazil.

NP. Yes, Sweden, Finland and Denmark are divesting their pension funds from US treasuries, citing US financial instability and Trump’s desire to take over Greenland. I’m sure if we as a country continue the course, there will be more countries that follow.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/big-north-european-investors-reassess-us-exposure-geopolitical-risk-mounts-2026-01-22/

Other countries are already doing that. Australia has the fourth biggest pot of pension funds in the world - about $4.2 trillion - and they have been trimming their US exposure for the last 12 months. Presumably other countries are already doing this too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'll add for OP, that if you want to understand, you need to start watching European news. Our US news media is doing a horrible job of informing us about major news events. The gaps are huuge.

And I don't mean right leaning vs left leaning. The whole emphasis on political lean has filtered important news out and selected political entertainment in.

Where do you find this European financial news on your cable channel

Not financial news. Financial will always be influenced by hedge fund managers trying to convince you to buy what they're secretly selling or sell what they want to buy.

Watch regular European news. BBC or anything you can find in English. Our news here in the US has become infotainment.

I subscribed for Reuters and read their Markets and Stocks daily very helpful