Market feels very overvalued--go to cash for a while?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These clowns attempting to time the market are about as dumb as MAGA maggots.

Okay, militant Jack Bogle. We’ll stop talking about our market positions and opinions because you don’t like them.

I do not see how never taking your money out is a strategy at all. Do you win buy dying with stocks?

It just means you don’t buy and sell on whims and day to day political entanglements while you are in the accumulation stage. Of course the makeup of your portfolio may gradually shift as you get closer to retirement and you start using your portfolio to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.

Maybe you should consider that it's you who is crazy staying the course in a chaotic market. What are you going to do when you stay the course and then Trump decides to buy a 50% stake in a company that dilutes all of your shares? Keep chillin? What Trump and Republicans are doing means you cannot rely on stability or consistency, although I'm trying by investing in international stock indexes and European defense firms.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m so glad i’m
it an emotional investor! I’ve put 25% of every single net dollar that has come through my hands into a taxable account since I first started working out of college in 2000. There have been many changes in the last 25 years but never once did I pull my money and have always kept the course. My growth has now outpaced my wage slave income. This alleged “correction” that your emotions have predicted should be irrelevant. Are you young? Is this your first market feeling you’ve struggled with?

I believe we are headed for a Great Depression style era soon. Or a heavy heavy recession. The last time we had tariffs like this was a precursor to the Great Depression. We are also 37 trillion in debt. Now we are talking about firing Fed chiefs for random reasons? Yeah, dude, not super bullish in general. I know we will soon turn on the money printer and lower rates, but holy fk are we in for a correction sooner than later. Tariffs and unemployment…this could be protracted and long when it occurs.

Totally agree with your points, but Smoot Hawley was passed in June 1930 as a horrible response to try and "save" the economy that had already entered the Great Depression in October 1929. It absolutely made the Depression worse and longer, and spread it all around the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act

We're going to find out what happens when you use tariffs to.... whatever reason Trump instituted tariffs... during a very strong economy. I think economists are predicting it will cause the same thing that happened with Smoot Hawley only people will have to come to grips with a depression brought about for no reason at all.

[Anonymous]

I’m buying gold and precious metal ETFs in the short term. Seems smart.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These clowns attempting to time the market are about as dumb as MAGA maggots.

Okay, militant Jack Bogle. We’ll stop talking about our market positions and opinions because you don’t like them.

I do not see how never taking your money out is a strategy at all. Do you win buy dying with stocks?

It just means you don’t buy and sell on whims and day to day political entanglements while you are in the accumulation stage. Of course the makeup of your portfolio may gradually shift as you get closer to retirement and you start using your portfolio to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.

Maybe you should consider that it's you who is crazy staying the course in a chaotic market. What are you going to do when you stay the course and then Trump decides to buy a 50% stake in a company that dilutes all of your shares? Keep chillin? What Trump and Republicans are doing means you cannot rely on stability or consistency, although I'm trying by investing in international stock indexes and European defense firms.

Was it not a chaotic market in September 2001? The financial crisis? March 2020 (the onset of a freaking global pandemic)? Inflation run up in 2022? Did it make any sense to change course during and in the aftermath of those events? Of course not. News flash - it’s ALWAYS a chaotic market.

Do you not see what the market has been doing since Trump was elected? Or the 4 years he was already in office? All his stupid shit is baked in (and it is stupid shit no doubt). Rates are likely going to decrease. What are you even talking about here?

International stocks just don’t beat the US stock market over the long term.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These clowns attempting to time the market are about as dumb as MAGA maggots.

Okay, militant Jack Bogle. We’ll stop talking about our market positions and opinions because you don’t like them.

I do not see how never taking your money out is a strategy at all. Do you win buy dying with stocks?

It just means you don’t buy and sell on whims and day to day political entanglements while you are in the accumulation stage. Of course the makeup of your portfolio may gradually shift as you get closer to retirement and you start using your portfolio to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.

Maybe you should consider that it's you who is crazy staying the course in a chaotic market. What are you going to do when you stay the course and then Trump decides to buy a 50% stake in a company that dilutes all of your shares? Keep chillin? What Trump and Republicans are doing means you cannot rely on stability or consistency, although I'm trying by investing in international stock indexes and European defense firms.

Was it not a chaotic market in September 2001? The financial crisis? March 2020 (the onset of a freaking global pandemic)? Inflation run up in 2022? Did it make any sense to change course during and in the aftermath of those events? Of course not. News flash - it’s ALWAYS a chaotic market.

Do you not see what the market has been doing since Trump was elected? Or the 4 years he was already in office? All his stupid shit is baked in (and it is stupid shit no doubt). Rates are likely going to decrease. What are you even talking about here?

International stocks just don’t beat the US stock market over the long term.

You must have a great crystal ball or be really smart to predict future stock market returns of both US and International stocks. Like the smartest person in the world

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These clowns attempting to time the market are about as dumb as MAGA maggots.

Okay, militant Jack Bogle. We’ll stop talking about our market positions and opinions because you don’t like them.

I do not see how never taking your money out is a strategy at all. Do you win buy dying with stocks?

It just means you don’t buy and sell on whims and day to day political entanglements while you are in the accumulation stage. Of course the makeup of your portfolio may gradually shift as you get closer to retirement and you start using your portfolio to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.

Maybe you should consider that it's you who is crazy staying the course in a chaotic market. What are you going to do when you stay the course and then Trump decides to buy a 50% stake in a company that dilutes all of your shares? Keep chillin? What Trump and Republicans are doing means you cannot rely on stability or consistency, although I'm trying by investing in international stock indexes and European defense firms.

Was it not a chaotic market in September 2001? The financial crisis? March 2020 (the onset of a freaking global pandemic)? Inflation run up in 2022? Did it make any sense to change course during and in the aftermath of those events? Of course not. News flash - it’s ALWAYS a chaotic market.

Do you not see what the market has been doing since Trump was elected? Or the 4 years he was already in office? All his stupid shit is baked in (and it is stupid shit no doubt). Rates are likely going to decrease. What are you even talking about here?

International stocks just don’t beat the US stock market over the long term.

You try to sound reasonable and then judge international stocks based on past performance. Guess you'll find out how your strategy works in novel market conditions. Oh and lol at your idea that Trump's crazy is built into the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These clowns attempting to time the market are about as dumb as MAGA maggots.

Okay, militant Jack Bogle. We’ll stop talking about our market positions and opinions because you don’t like them.

I do not see how never taking your money out is a strategy at all. Do you win buy dying with stocks?

It just means you don’t buy and sell on whims and day to day political entanglements while you are in the accumulation stage. Of course the makeup of your portfolio may gradually shift as you get closer to retirement and you start using your portfolio to maintain your lifestyle in retirement.

Maybe you should consider that it's you who is crazy staying the course in a chaotic market. What are you going to do when you stay the course and then Trump decides to buy a 50% stake in a company that dilutes all of your shares? Keep chillin? What Trump and Republicans are doing means you cannot rely on stability or consistency, although I'm trying by investing in international stock indexes and European defense firms.

Was it not a chaotic market in September 2001? The financial crisis? March 2020 (the onset of a freaking global pandemic)? Inflation run up in 2022? Did it make any sense to change course during and in the aftermath of those events? Of course not. News flash - it’s ALWAYS a chaotic market.

Do you not see what the market has been doing since Trump was elected? Or the 4 years he was already in office? All his stupid shit is baked in (and it is stupid shit no doubt). Rates are likely going to decrease. What are you even talking about here?

International stocks just don’t beat the US stock market over the long term.

You must have a great crystal ball or be really smart to predict future stock market returns of both US and International stocks. Like the smartest person in the world

I’m not the smartest person in the world, hence I don’t try to time the market. I know nothing except that people (including me) aren’t smart enough to beat the S&P 500 over the long term unless you get exceedingly lucky.

100+ years of historical data through extremely turbulent times is a better indicator than your political feelings in the moment. And I likely agree with you on most political issues.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree with you OP

What's more likely. S&P to gain 30%, or to lose 30%.
The risks is exponentially higher the market will drop.
I piled a ton of $ into S&P in April when it was under 5000. It's seen an almost 30% rise. I'll be selling at the first sign of distress and stick it back into what at that time will probably be 3.5% money market until after the correction again. Locking in a profit is never bad.

You can be a sheepie and follow the axiom not to pull out of the market because it will recover. Pull up the long term graph and you'll see some of those recoveries took 15 years.

So in other words, hit your market timing in both the sell and buy side. Good luck. You can get lucky once or twice but you can’t do that consistently Mr. Madoff.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If the market can stay high through covid unemployment then it's going to stay high all through this administration. Even if the national guard starts torching derelict buildings.

Sure thing Lib.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I moved half my equities into international funds.

Similar - this presidency did make me rethink my allocation and realize that I was too heavily indexed to US-only equities, so I rebalanced.

That’s strange. I didn’t know libs could think at all. I didn’t make any major changes during the Biden and Obama Presidencies despite their horrible policies. The market returns 8-10% over the Long Run regardless of who is in the White House. Don’t let your T…D…S dictate your investment decisions.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think any asset, except gold, energy and consumer staples, is really safe when the fed’s cooking the numbers and unemployment figures. Honestly, the stagflation is coming. It’s just a matter of time. Prices are rising all over the place and 99% of people is blissfully think g La de fking da the market only goes up. No dude this isn’t TDS. This is reality. Your stupid Tesla stock is going to crash soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think any asset, except gold, energy and consumer staples, is really safe when the fed’s cooking the numbers and unemployment figures. Honestly, the stagflation is coming. It’s just a matter of time. Prices are rising all over the place and 99% of people is blissfully think g La de fking da the market only goes up. No dude this isn’t TDS. This is reality. Your stupid Tesla stock is going to crash soon.

You said the same thing back in April of this year and were proven wrong then.

Of course the market will go down at some point. You keep buying. Then it will go back up. You ride it out and don’t miss out on stocks on sale or the big run ups that inevitably occur in the aftermath of a big correction.

Or are you saying the financial markets are doomed forever? If so, we all have much bigger problems to worry about and I don’t think investing in gold is going to do anything for any of us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Everyone here can get fked. I’m holding crypto for a few more months, but slowly moving into gold ETFs. We will see some stock market euphoria for a little longer, but then market will get spooked and crash hard for years. It’s so obvious.

You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

Really? I think the PP has pretty accurately described the current situation. We are on an obvious to becoming Argentina…

This is my concern, too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think any asset, except gold, energy and consumer staples, is really safe when the fed’s cooking the numbers and unemployment figures. Honestly, the stagflation is coming. It’s just a matter of time. Prices are rising all over the place and 99% of people is blissfully think g La de fking da the market only goes up. No dude this isn’t TDS. This is reality. Your stupid Tesla stock is going to crash soon.

You said the same thing back in April of this year and were proven wrong then.

Of course the market will go down at some point. You keep buying. Then it will go back up. You ride it out and don’t miss out on stocks on sale or the big run ups that inevitably occur in the aftermath of a big correction.

Or are you saying the financial markets are doomed forever? If so, we all have much bigger problems to worry about and I don’t think investing in gold is going to do anything for any of us.

You're investing based on an old truth that America is exceptional and the best investment in the world. That's no longer the case. I'm investing in the countries that now refuse to ship to the US since they are developing new trade agreements. European defense firms are a sure bet to get bigger while the US is going to nationalize their defense industry like Russia so that any investment gets routed to the Party and incompetence squanders everything. In fact, US businesses might all end up having the US government take a stake which will dilute shares for all current holders and lower their value as the Trump administration grifts from each company. I can't imagine investors will sit around while their money is hoovered up by the government and not used for anything other than to enrich a couple MAGA clowns.

[Anonymous]

I'd advise you to not take financial advice from a thread where most commenters just want to get in an insult against the Trump Administration. TDS investing is not a winning strategy.