Just realized application fee alone will cost $1000+

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DC is not even planning to apply for that many, probably around 15, which is not much for high stat kids, since their reach and target schools overlap, it's like playing the lottery

Not independent odds, so no, it's not like buying more tickets.

Wrong, they are entirely independent events, despite this being impossible to gage WRT college applications. Your acceptance or rejection at one school does not change the odds of the decision at another school, so they remain entirely independent events. The bizarreness of this process does not change the rules of mathematics.

Dependent events are like pulling a red card from a deck reduces the odds of the next one being red also. It's how card counting is effective.

The event is not the reader, it's the applicant.

The event is the result - acceptance, rejection, or WL. Red or Black. 2 through 12.

Your decision from Harvard has no effect on your decision from Yale, Penn State, or anywhere else. Therefore they are absolutely independent events.

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html

https://www.cuemath.com/data/independent-events/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)

Doing the same thing 14 times and expecting something different to happen the next time is stupid.

except that there's no 14 exact same schools.

[Anonymous]

NP here who is trying to understand strategy now that it's basically a lottery. Let's say my kid has high stats, but that's not a differentiator anymore. Her favorite 3 schools are T20 and have low acceptance rates. They are all "reach", right? Then, "safeties" are ones where her stats are way above, right? But aren't people saying safeties are rejecting high stats kids b/c they would like to save the spot for someone who doesn't think of them as a safety? What even is a "target", then? If stats don't get you in and stats might keep you out, how does anyone get in?

[Anonymous]

I agree with the Probabilities Poster.

You increase your chances of admission if you add more safeties and targets. If you only apply to reaches, even if you apply to many, you are taking on enormous risk of being rejected by all.

So with the laws of probabilities on your side, please increase your safety and reach applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NP here who is trying to understand strategy now that it's basically a lottery. Let's say my kid has high stats, but that's not a differentiator anymore. Her favorite 3 schools are T20 and have low acceptance rates. They are all "reach", right? Then, "safeties" are ones where her stats are way above, right? But aren't people saying safeties are rejecting high stats kids b/c they would like to save the spot for someone who doesn't think of them as a safety? What even is a "target", then? If stats don't get you in and stats might keep you out, how does anyone get in?

I would apply to safeties that are just below your child's stats, and for which your child can write in their essay something about that particular school that makes them understand they aren't just "filler".

[Anonymous]

So your kid will do more than a dozen essays?

Or can he repurpose a couple and make them fit?

[Anonymous]

15 apps is many! My rising senior will probably apply to 10 - 3 reaches, 3 matches, 4 likelies. And DC is a “high stats” kid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So I hear what Spay and Pray folks are saying. Had twins and one applied to like 12 and one 18 or so. We were shooting for certain high ranked schools and ended up getting an ivy each. Sometimes you gotta through a lot of spaghetti on the wall. Bottom of Ivy but Ivy nonetheless.

This is exactly why you would apply to a lot of schools. We’re not saying "do reaches only" - yes, do at least 3 safeties and 3 ‘targets’! That is good, sound advice. However, if you are a high stats (ie qualified) kid who really wants to get into an Ivy, applying to all 8 Ivies gives you a greater chance of getting into an Ivy vs only applying to 4 Ivies, IF you can handle the stress of all the essay writing. If you have the funds and stamina to write all the essays, applying to more top tier schools only increases the chances you’ll get into at least one top tier school. But yes, also apply to some safeties and reaches because it’s still possible to get rejected from all top tiers.

[Anonymous]

cost of doing business / playing the application game. don't forget the SAT/ACT score fees and the private counselor fees...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I taught an AP course full of high achieving seniors this year. Only 1 student applied to 15+ schools. Most did 5-8.

Really? 10-12 seems to be the norm for the top students since schools in the top 20 have a 4-6% admit rate.

[Anonymous]

All 3 of my kids applied to only 3 each...anymore than 5 is crazy imo

[Anonymous]

15 is not that many for “regular” high stat kids (ie not URM, /Olympic athletes / cured cancer) aiming for Top 20.
Like everyone said, they still need to include safeties and especially if looking for merit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:15 is too many. We did 12, and that ended up being too many. She got into almost all of them and she had too many choices. And she would’ve been fine at any of them. And I’m not bragging by the way, they were all ranked 50 to 100 schools; she was just your regular slightly above average kid.

So you experience doesn’t apply here, since we are focusing on No of app for high stat kids targeting top schools

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is what it is, unless you're willing to narrow it down from 15 (which is a lot). Don't forget all the fees for sending ACT/SAT scores as well.

I don’t even realize this costs extra !

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NP here who is trying to understand strategy now that it's basically a lottery. Let's say my kid has high stats, but that's not a differentiator anymore. Her favorite 3 schools are T20 and have low acceptance rates. They are all "reach", right? Then, "safeties" are ones where her stats are way above, right? But aren't people saying safeties are rejecting high stats kids b/c they would like to save the spot for someone who doesn't think of them as a safety? What even is a "target", then? If stats don't get you in and stats might keep you out, how does anyone get in?

reaches, well those are anything with an acceptance rate under 20%, doesn't matter what your kid's stats are

Targets: acceptance rates between 20-50/60%, kid at/above 50% (and somewhere you can afford)

Safety: acceptance rates over 50/60% and your kid's stats at/above 75%. For safeties especially, your kid needs to show demonstrate interest, and present themselves as if this is their dream school and convince them they would really attend if they get in. Because yes, kids do get "yield protected". Contact the admission officer, schedule an interview if possible, visit in person a few times if possible, if not then do as many online visits/interactions as possible. Ask to meet with the departments your kid is interested in, etc. Because yes if the avg scores are 1400 and 3.9W and your kid is rocking a 1580/4.5 you need to convince them that you really want to attend, otherwise there's a chance they wont accept you because all schools wants to improve their yield. The ultimate goal for a school is to fill their freshman class with the right group of students---so if your kid is out of the range of they typical student who normally actually enrolls, then you must convince them you want to go there, as they will think (possibly correctly) that you are using them as a safety and aren't really interested.

That is why you need more than 1 viable safety and why you MUST show demonstrated interest.

Then again it varies at each school. My own kid was accepted at a target they had not visited and only did the basic "online visit" once or twice. Knew it would be a great choice and would visit if they didn't get into their ED school (over 2K miles away). Even got the 2nd highest merit award that are given out automatically without any additional applications. My kid was only at the 75% for SAT (not 90th), but it's still a T50 school, so acceptance rates of ~25-30% most years and the school is known to yield protect as it's a "safety" for many Ivy/T20 Wannabees. I suspect my kid's scores were just right to make sure they didn't get yield protected but even so, many with similar scores didn't get accepted this year.

But that is why nothing with a 25-30% acceptance rate is a true safety. True safety must be 50-60%+ acceptance rate. So no matter how high your scores/gpa are, acceptance rates define what a true safety is. But show interest, real interest (fake it if needed but really you should find 2-3 that your kid is actually interested in that would be a good fit once you get over realizing you might not get to attend a T20 school) and you won't get rejected at most of your safeties. Problem is that for a HYPMS qualified candidate, that doesn't mean Tufts/Case/Rochester/Boston College/BU/Northeastern/GAtech/Purdue/UMich/Berkley/half the UCs/etc are Safeties. Those are not safeties for anyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:15??? Just wait until your DC sees all the essays they have to write. 15 is a bit silly.

+1. All of those college visits, interviews, scholarship application essays, online webinars to demonstrate interest, other additional essays, recommendations and then keeping up with homework and ECs. Hope you don’t have to take the SAT again..

We did 10 but planned on doing about 6 more. Too tired after early January to finish the other applications. It all worked out though.

Good luck.