May CPI 8.6%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:U Mich consumer confidence survey came out - lowest numbers in the history of the entire survey. Consumers are hanging on by a thread.

This economy is about to fall off a cliff.

And yet, unemployment is at historic lows, people have to much money to spend, and employees are demanding higher wages. But yes, the economy is about to fall off a cliff.

Maybe you missed the news about all the companies starting to lay people off.

Unemployment also lags. First consumer sentiment and spending tank. Then companies start losing money or have their margins hit. Then layoffs come.

We are in the first part of that chain reaction.

+1. When trouble brews, first companies stop hiring. Plenty of that going on right now. As things progress, they will cut hours. Only when things continue to decline is when they do layoffs.

You guys keep praying for a recession but job growth continues. Consumers are spending. Anecdotes about layoffs at a few companies are insignificant. There is always a lot of churn in the labor market. Even when the economy is in full growth, when we “add” 1 million jobs it is the net of about 7 million new jobs at employers that are hiring offsetting 6 million jobs lost at employers that are contracting or closing.

So this is the new democrat platform - 8+% inflation is 'good' because it means people are spending and the economy is strong. Meanwhile, everyone's entire life savings are being destroyed. Good luck trying to run on a platform that $5 gas and grocery bills skyrocketing out of control means 'the economy is good'. Please don't act surprised in Nov. when it is a bloodbath for the Dems.

Yep. It is gaslighting taken to entirely new level. But this isn’t the same as other gaslighting efforts. Here, I actually know how much money I make and how much that hasn’t changed and I know how much I typically spend at the gas pump and the grocery store. The gas pump has fluctuated on and off but now it is just way up. For me, the biggest, most unexpected hit is my weekly grocery bill at Giant. Not Whole Foods. Giant. It is much much higher. You cannot gas light me that things are good. Other expenses i have have also gone up. But my federal government paycheck has NOT gone up in a meaningful way for nearly 15 years.

Sounds like you didn’t make much of yourself and settled.

Now you want me to feel sorry for you? Dream on.

'Dear middle class, maybe if you weren't such losers you could afford these prices!'.

Wow, Dems sounding more and more like bootstrap GOP these days. Keep running on platform of high inflation is good Dems. See how well this works out for you.

[Anonymous]

Funs-Fact: Credit card balances are up 15% from this time last year

Another Funs-Fact: Gas and Food budgets are at all time highs for those making 50k or less

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:U Mich consumer confidence survey came out - lowest numbers in the history of the entire survey. Consumers are hanging on by a thread.

This economy is about to fall off a cliff.

And yet, unemployment is at historic lows, people have to much money to spend, and employees are demanding higher wages. But yes, the economy is about to fall off a cliff.

Maybe you missed the news about all the companies starting to lay people off.

Unemployment also lags. First consumer sentiment and spending tank. Then companies start losing money or have their margins hit. Then layoffs come.

We are in the first part of that chain reaction.

+1. When trouble brews, first companies stop hiring. Plenty of that going on right now. As things progress, they will cut hours. Only when things continue to decline is when they do layoffs.

You guys keep praying for a recession but job growth continues. Consumers are spending. Anecdotes about layoffs at a few companies are insignificant. There is always a lot of churn in the labor market. Even when the economy is in full growth, when we “add” 1 million jobs it is the net of about 7 million new jobs at employers that are hiring offsetting 6 million jobs lost at employers that are contracting or closing.

So this is the new democrat platform - 8+% inflation is 'good' because it means people are spending and the economy is strong. Meanwhile, everyone's entire life savings are being destroyed. Good luck trying to run on a platform that $5 gas and grocery bills skyrocketing out of control means 'the economy is good'. Please don't act surprised in Nov. when it is a bloodbath for the Dems.

Yep. It is gaslighting taken to entirely new level. But this isn’t the same as other gaslighting efforts. Here, I actually know how much money I make and how much that hasn’t changed and I know how much I typically spend at the gas pump and the grocery store. The gas pump has fluctuated on and off but now it is just way up. For me, the biggest, most unexpected hit is my weekly grocery bill at Giant. Not Whole Foods. Giant. It is much much higher. You cannot gas light me that things are good. Other expenses i have have also gone up. But my federal government paycheck has NOT gone up in a meaningful way for nearly 15 years.

Sounds like you didn’t make much of yourself and settled.

Now you want me to feel sorry for you? Dream on.

'Dear middle class, maybe if you weren't such losers you could afford these prices!'.

Wow, Dems sounding more and more like bootstrap GOP these days. Keep running on platform of high inflation is good Dems. See how well this works out for you.

100%. That was my post. I am an attorney who took the federal government route after toiling in big law. It wasn’t good for my family. But I think the saddest thing is that the people who say I haven’t made much of myself 1) want handouts, 2) want loan forgiveness, 3) don’t understand what inflation is or basic economics. These are the hate filled dummies Elon Musk finally said he can’t deal with. People can deal with loving dummies. But hateful dummies. No thank you. And aw shucks Joe isn’t able to paper over the rot in this Democratic Party with stories of Scranton. The posters on this board are the modern Democratic Party and it is a party of ignorant, lazy, greedy, educated stupid people. And a lot of moderates really see it now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's not like Republicans have any plans to cut inflation.

So I will stick with Biden.

+100000

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's not like Republicans have any plans to cut inflation.

So I will stick with Biden.

+100000

plus 10 percent for ...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Funs-Fact: Credit card balances are up 15% from this time last year
Another Funs-Fact: Gas and Food budgets are at all time highs for those making 50k or less

Looks like they're back to where they were pre-pandemic. Isn't that what we wanted?

[Anonymous]

What a debacle of a Biden speech in response to skyrocketing inflation. JUST BUY A $50K EV YOU DUMB POORS! E Z SOLUTION. SEE.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just my observation as an American consumer - grocery prices seem to be going down from the peak and my inbox is filled with emails from retailers touting huge markdowns on warm weather items (and it's the beginning of June). I just bought new outdoor furniture for almost 50% off and summer clothes are a bargain.

That’s not a good sign. Retailers are dumping excess inventory because consumers aren’t buying. That always happens at the beginning of a recession.

And I haven’t noticed reductions in grocery prices. To the contrary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What a debacle of a Biden speech in response to skyrocketing inflation. JUST BUY A $50K EV YOU DUMB POORS! E Z SOLUTION. SEE.

It's truly amazing how Republicans are so capable of putting words in Democrats' mouths but don't bat an eye when Trump literally wondered whether injecting bleach might help kill COVID. What is it? Some kind of brain disease?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Funs-Fact: Credit card balances are up 15% from this time last year

Another Funs-Fact: Gas and Food budgets are at all time highs for those making 50k or less

Yes the credit card industry said that consumers are putting vacations on credit. I know we are traveling big this year to deal with overwhelming burnout.

[Anonymous]

And they cheered for the 2017 tax bill. A tax bill that was of no benefit to most of his followers and most everyone was mad when it set in. But it came from Trump so it was ok.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

I think this is why the Dems are so clueless. This may be true of UMC white collar workers who are now mostly WFH, which is now the Dem base, but it’s not true of the rest of America that is still driving to their on site job. The UMC also saved tons of money during the pandemic because they weren’t driving to work, buying new clothes, etc. They’re doing fine (despite being concerned about the value of their 401ks. Everyone else, not so much.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

If gasoline and food consumption were down, enough to make the old CPI models outdated, post pandemic, then odds are prices for those items would be down. The simple answer is that demand is not down enough to offset any supply constraints. The more nuanced answer is that oil flows through everything. You may not be driving to the office but you probably receive a lot more delivered goods at home. The further nuance is that consumption is down marginally from pre pandemic levels, but supply constraints more than offset reduced demand and cost for goods and services are up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I just honestly don't think the old rules apply here with what we have been through in the last year and a half. Pandemic and now war are the reasons for so much of this trouble.

What exactly would the Republicans do? Tax cuts again? Yeah, those have worked out so well for everyone *MASSIVE EYEROLL*

Agree that the old rules don’t fit the pandemic effects on the economy but the official economic statistics are adjusted for the pre-pandemic economy. We’ve seen that with the BLS labor data using their seasonal adjustments from pre-pandemic patterns and then having to make big adjustments. They finally modified their adjustments but with mostly guesswork.

For CPI and all the other stats adjusted to CPI, the average basket of goods and services built into it is based on pre-pandemic consumption patterns. Yes, gas prices are up but how many people drive as much now as they did in 2019? I sure don’t. I work from home 3 or 4 days a week now vs. 0 days 3 years ago. For commuting, I filled up twice a month 3 years ago but only once a month now, so even with higher prices, I spend less money on gas now. I also spend less on lunch, business attire, auto maintenance, etc., related to commuting, so inflation really hasn’t affected me. But the economic stats assume I’m still buying as much of everything as I bought in 2019.

If gasoline and food consumption were down, enough to make the old CPI models outdated, post pandemic, then odds are prices for those items would be down. The simple answer is that demand is not down enough to offset any supply constraints. The more nuanced answer is that oil flows through everything. You may not be driving to the office but you probably receive a lot more delivered goods at home. The further nuance is that consumption is down marginally from pre pandemic levels, but supply constraints more than offset reduced demand and cost for goods and services are up.

Come on. You know gas prices are not based on consumer demand. Its not a legitimate economic market.