Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It should probably be noted that the counter offensive is officially over. Ukraine is no longer attacking, and Russia has gone on the offensive over a large part of the front.

Whether they will make many gains, or they will founder just like the Ukrainians remains to be seen.

What is their end goal? Which areas?
Or is “we will push as far as we can”?

Probably seeing how much resistance Ukraine has left. If they can still resist effectively, it will probably just be a fall/winter of attrition. If Ukraine starts to get rolled up though, you might see a more ambitious assault.

Yes,
I meant their goals, not what they achieve in reality. Do they want to take some or all of Ukraine?
Like, if they are able to sign the peace treaty now, would they stop? Or they need more?
I’ve been very unclear from the beginning.

Z is a Jew who is playing with “house money”

It’s gentiles fighting and dying not Z. So he will never offer realistic terms to 🇷🇺

Russia doesn’t want all of Ukraine.

There are various scenarios.

The maximalist scenario is taking Odessa and turning Ukraine into a rump state around Lvov/lviv

The minimalist scenario is current frozen lines as they are

Politically, Ukraine not joint nato and eu are base cases.

Nope. Russia collapses - that is the minimalist scenario.

And Russia’s collapse is guaranteed, demographically.

But we do not need to wait that long. Russia’s ruble was worth 60 US cents in the 70s; today it is worth less than one cent.

And the ruble’s value is still plummeting.

Will China save Russia? Have they helped so far in the war?? (No).

Here is a scenario you forgot PP:

Ukraine takes Tokmak, then reaches the Black Sea, and Crimea is cut off; it is not difficult to destroy the Kerch straight bridge, and Crimea is completely cut off.

Then Russia will have to retreat behind the 2014 border in a humiliating defeat.

That is the likely scenario in Ukraine.

DP. With all due respect, this doesn’t sound realistic now when everyone’s too busy with the Middle East.
Russia may slowly collapse but not in the next year or two. But it may also become a huge Iran minus the headscarves.

DP. The media and outrage machine is busy with Israel/Gaza. But the ME peace process has been intractable for decades. People will wear themselves out and move on. As they always do.

Ukraine is more existential for European interests. Russia can’t undo the economic trajectory there. It also can’t undo its demographic collapse. Even the economic migrants are leaving Russia. Russia doesn’t have enough people or materiel (and I don’t think what North Korea is providing is going to be meaningful) to keep going in Ukraine.

Ukraine is chipping away at the land route and will probably cut it. Just because the media isn’t so excited about every move doesn’t mean they’re not progressing.

[Anonymous]

UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

Russia is losing a lot of equipment and man. Their lose rates are extremely high from the reports I have seen.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

Russia is losing a lot of equipment and man. Their lose rates are extremely high from the reports I have seen.

You have to take anything coming from Ukrainian sources with a grain of salt. If even half of what they've claimed was true, then Russia wouldn't be on the offensive and NATO wouldn't be cutting bait right now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It should probably be noted that the counter offensive is officially over. Ukraine is no longer attacking, and Russia has gone on the offensive over a large part of the front.

Whether they will make many gains, or they will founder just like the Ukrainians remains to be seen.

What is their end goal? Which areas?
Or is “we will push as far as we can”?

Probably seeing how much resistance Ukraine has left. If they can still resist effectively, it will probably just be a fall/winter of attrition. If Ukraine starts to get rolled up though, you might see a more ambitious assault.

Yes,
I meant their goals, not what they achieve in reality. Do they want to take some or all of Ukraine?
Like, if they are able to sign the peace treaty now, would they stop? Or they need more?
I’ve been very unclear from the beginning.

They have been referencing "historical Russian lands" a lot lately, which would include the four referendum oblasts, as well as Odessa and Nikolaev. I take this as their minimal goals at this point.

That would leave a land-locked Ukraine, which given their penchant for attacking Russian shipping lately makes sense. It would also link up Transnistria by land. It solves a lot of their geo-political challenges, so they will push hard for that.

Ukraine may still be able to stop them short of that goal, but they squandered so much in the doomed counter offensive.

This makes sense, but why not stop there and recover? I mean, they don’t seem to want to raze Kiev to the ground, or do they? And I don’t think they could take Kiev without incurring major damage if at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It should probably be noted that the counter offensive is officially over. Ukraine is no longer attacking, and Russia has gone on the offensive over a large part of the front.

Whether they will make many gains, or they will founder just like the Ukrainians remains to be seen.

What is their end goal? Which areas?
Or is “we will push as far as we can”?

Probably seeing how much resistance Ukraine has left. If they can still resist effectively, it will probably just be a fall/winter of attrition. If Ukraine starts to get rolled up though, you might see a more ambitious assault.

Yes,
I meant their goals, not what they achieve in reality. Do they want to take some or all of Ukraine?
Like, if they are able to sign the peace treaty now, would they stop? Or they need more?
I’ve been very unclear from the beginning.

Z is a Jew who is playing with “house money”

It’s gentiles fighting and dying not Z. So he will never offer realistic terms to 🇷🇺

Russia doesn’t want all of Ukraine.

There are various scenarios.

The maximalist scenario is taking Odessa and turning Ukraine into a rump state around Lvov/lviv

The minimalist scenario is current frozen lines as they are

Politically, Ukraine not joint nato and eu are base cases.

Nope. Russia collapses - that is the minimalist scenario.

And Russia’s collapse is guaranteed, demographically.

But we do not need to wait that long. Russia’s ruble was worth 60 US cents in the 70s; today it is worth less than one cent.

And the ruble’s value is still plummeting.

Will China save Russia? Have they helped so far in the war?? (No).

Here is a scenario you forgot PP:

Ukraine takes Tokmak, then reaches the Black Sea, and Crimea is cut off; it is not difficult to destroy the Kerch straight bridge, and Crimea is completely cut off.

Then Russia will have to retreat behind the 2014 border in a humiliating defeat.

That is the likely scenario in Ukraine.

DP. With all due respect, this doesn’t sound realistic now when everyone’s too busy with the Middle East.
Russia may slowly collapse but not in the next year or two. But it may also become a huge Iran minus the headscarves.

DP. The media and outrage machine is busy with Israel/Gaza. But the ME peace process has been intractable for decades. People will wear themselves out and move on. As they always do.

Ukraine is more existential for European interests. Russia can’t undo the economic trajectory there. It also can’t undo its demographic collapse. Even the economic migrants are leaving Russia. Russia doesn’t have enough people or materiel (and I don’t think what North Korea is providing is going to be meaningful) to keep going in Ukraine.

Ukraine is chipping away at the land route and will probably cut it. Just because the media isn’t so excited about every move doesn’t mean they’re not progressing.

How I see it, Russia is extremely vulnerable in the 5-10 year perspective, but it is stronger than Ukraine in this very moment because of the funding gap and lack of soldiers and overall fatigue.
I have some friends with ties to Ukraine. Those who are less connected to it remain very determined to keep fighting, but those with stronger ties on the ground report fatigue.
I am not sure if Russia is able to take Odessa and Mikolaev though. Maybe all they can do is keep what they already got and hope for some sort of ceasefire/peace talks.
It’s weird to think that the best for Russia would be to actually lose the war. The Russian market is pretty attractive just as their minerals, it won’t stay underdeveloped for long if the sanctions are lifted. And Gen X is less set on restoring the Soviet glory so maybe they won’t do anything as crazy as this war.

[Anonymous]

😂 😂 😂

Israel just rejected Z request to visit

Even his own people don’t like Z

😂 😂 😂

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:😂 😂 😂

Israel just rejected Z request to visit

Even his own people don’t like Z

😂 😂 😂

Don’t think there is a large Ukrainian diaspora in Israel. Also. Bibi is burning up the phone lines with Putin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

Russia is losing a lot of equipment and man. Their lose rates are extremely high from the reports I have seen.

You have to take anything coming from Ukrainian sources with a grain of salt. If even half of what they've claimed was true, then Russia wouldn't be on the offensive and NATO wouldn't be cutting bait right now.

The defenders always do better. Russia is trying do something while with the cover provided by republicans and Hamas. Russia needs to show something the wolves are circling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

Russia is losing a lot of equipment and man. Their lose rates are extremely high from the reports I have seen.

You have to take anything coming from Ukrainian sources with a grain of salt. If even half of what they've claimed was true, then Russia wouldn't be on the offensive and NATO wouldn't be cutting bait right now.

The defenders always do better. Russia is trying do something while with the cover provided by republicans and Hamas. Russia needs to show something the wolves are circling.

It’s too late for Russia. Putin is sick, weak, and the Prigozhin mess accelerated everything. Oligarchs and siloviki are unhappy. The replacement will not be better for Russia, but will probably declare victory in Ukraine and withdraw. The war is not sustainable for Russia. Its economy is trashed and it’s running out people to fight.

[Anonymous]

The plan is in to replace Z. It’s all over folks.

How can you ask a man to be the last one to die for control of the ethnically russian Donbas?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It should probably be noted that the counter offensive is officially over. Ukraine is no longer attacking, and Russia has gone on the offensive over a large part of the front.

Whether they will make many gains, or they will founder just like the Ukrainians remains to be seen.

What is their end goal? Which areas?
Or is “we will push as far as we can”?

Probably seeing how much resistance Ukraine has left. If they can still resist effectively, it will probably just be a fall/winter of attrition. If Ukraine starts to get rolled up though, you might see a more ambitious assault.

Yes,
I meant their goals, not what they achieve in reality. Do they want to take some or all of Ukraine?
Like, if they are able to sign the peace treaty now, would they stop? Or they need more?
I’ve been very unclear from the beginning.

Z is a Jew who is playing with “house money”

It’s gentiles fighting and dying not Z. So he will never offer realistic terms to 🇷🇺

Russia doesn’t want all of Ukraine.

There are various scenarios.

The maximalist scenario is taking Odessa and turning Ukraine into a rump state around Lvov/lviv

The minimalist scenario is current frozen lines as they are

Politically, Ukraine not joint nato and eu are base cases.

Nope. Russia collapses - that is the minimalist scenario.

And Russia’s collapse is guaranteed, demographically.

But we do not need to wait that long. Russia’s ruble was worth 60 US cents in the 70s; today it is worth less than one cent.

And the ruble’s value is still plummeting.

Will China save Russia? Have they helped so far in the war?? (No).

Here is a scenario you forgot PP:

Ukraine takes Tokmak, then reaches the Black Sea, and Crimea is cut off; it is not difficult to destroy the Kerch straight bridge, and Crimea is completely cut off.

Then Russia will have to retreat behind the 2014 border in a humiliating defeat.

That is the likely scenario in Ukraine.

DP. With all due respect, this doesn’t sound realistic now when everyone’s too busy with the Middle East.
Russia may slowly collapse but not in the next year or two. But it may also become a huge Iran minus the headscarves.

DP. The media and outrage machine is busy with Israel/Gaza. But the ME peace process has been intractable for decades. People will wear themselves out and move on. As they always do.

Ukraine is more existential for European interests. Russia can’t undo the economic trajectory there. It also can’t undo its demographic collapse. Even the economic migrants are leaving Russia. Russia doesn’t have enough people or materiel (and I don’t think what North Korea is providing is going to be meaningful) to keep going in Ukraine.

Ukraine is chipping away at the land route and will probably cut it. Just because the media isn’t so excited about every move doesn’t mean they’re not progressing.

How I see it, Russia is extremely vulnerable in the 5-10 year perspective, but it is stronger than Ukraine in this very moment because of the funding gap and lack of soldiers and overall fatigue.
I have some friends with ties to Ukraine. Those who are less connected to it remain very determined to keep fighting, but those with stronger ties on the ground report fatigue.
I am not sure if Russia is able to take Odessa and Mikolaev though. Maybe all they can do is keep what they already got and hope for some sort of ceasefire/peace talks.
It’s weird to think that the best for Russia would be to actually lose the war. The Russian market is pretty attractive just as their minerals, it won’t stay underdeveloped for long if the sanctions are lifted. And Gen X is less set on restoring the Soviet glory so maybe they won’t do anything as crazy as this war.

I wouldn't count the Ukrainians out yet. I think the Russian's miscalculated again.

"Russia has lost 127 tanks, 239 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs) and 161 artillery systems in a week"
https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-russia-war-live-two-074813000.html

"Russian losses on front reach almost 1000 soldiers in one day again"
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-losses-front-reach-almost-051756828.html

This is three to four times their normal daily troop loss. As long as Russia is experiencing losses like this, it won't really matter.

Ukrainians can just defend, then test and inch forward. Once the Ukrainians cut off M14 and the Crimean bridges, then blows up ammo dumps / supply depots; the calculus changes. The Russians will be forced to keep attacking throughout the winter to restore logistic lines. Ukrainians can take it slow. Keep their lines intact. Let Russian troops expend themselves while the Ukrainians are defending.

On the domestic front, the Kremlin is making Russian companies eat currency exchange risks.

"Moscow announced late Wednesday that it would force dozens of exporters to convert their foreign revenues into rubles. According to the statement, Russia’s financial regulator, Rosfinmonitoring, will monitor and enforce the new requirements on 43 companies in the energy, metals, grain and other sectors."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/12/economy/russia-ruble-surge-export-controls/index.html

This is a 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' scenario that might last a few (6 to 12?) months before something breaks (e.g. higher inflation). In essence, I believe it forces Russian exporters to buy Roubles at prices higher than international exchange rates so the Central Bank's piggy bang is restocked with foreign currency. Although this is great news for the Kremlin, it's bad news for locals. This should have the net effect of driving inflation higher domestically, since there will be a ton of Roubles chasing, well, I'm not sure what they'll be chasing?

"Russia on Friday reinstated subsidies, or damper payments to oil refineries to curb rising fuel prices."
"This will provide economic incentives to saturate the domestic market with fuel, restrain the growth of wholesale exchange prices, which as a result will contribute to maintaining a stable price in retail at a level close to inflation,' the government said in a statement."
"On Sept. 21, the government also banned the export of petrol and diesel fuel to stabilize the fuel market, which has been experiencing a long period of price growth."
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/general/russia-reinstates-fuel-subsidies-to-stabilize-prices-in-domestic-market/39035

Why does this matter? Ask yourself why would the Kremlin need to impose subsidies when they already stopped exporting petrol and diesel fuel?
My guess is the Kremlin is banking on the idea that if you lower fuel costs, the economy will cool down and keep necessities (e.g. food, gas) cheap over the winter.

Normally, this is true, unless you're pumping cash into the economy. Not sure what will keep the food producers from being driven out of business unless they can raise their prices, contributing to inflation?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:😂 😂 😂

Israel just rejected Z request to visit

Even his own people don’t like Z

😂 😂 😂

Don’t think there is a large Ukrainian diaspora in Israel. Also. Bibi is burning up the phone lines with Putin.

I saw media reporting that Russian military operatives trained Hamas.

Why is Bibi talking to Putin?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The plan is in to replace Z. It’s all over folks.

How can you ask a man to be the last one to die for control of the ethnically russian Donbas?

Whose plan?

The Russians?

Links?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:UKRAINE GROUND FORCES COMMANDER: SITUATION ON NORTHEAST FRONT LINE HAS "SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATED" , RUSSIA HOPES TO BREAK THROUGH DEFENCES IN KUPIANSK-LYMAN DIRECTION

Russia is losing a lot of equipment and man. Their lose rates are extremely high from the reports I have seen.

You have to take anything coming from Ukrainian sources with a grain of salt. If even half of what they've claimed was true, then Russia wouldn't be on the offensive and NATO wouldn't be cutting bait right now.

The defenders always do better. Russia is trying do something while with the cover provided by republicans and Hamas. Russia needs to show something the wolves are circling.

It’s too late for Russia. Putin is sick, weak, and the Prigozhin mess accelerated everything. Oligarchs and siloviki are unhappy. The replacement will not be better for Russia, but will probably declare victory in Ukraine and withdraw. The war is not sustainable for Russia. Its economy is trashed and it’s running out people to fight.

This sounds plausible …