"No Labels" Party

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

I am so tired of linking this but literally in the 2022 midterms that produced landslide Democratic victories in both Michigan and Pennsylvania abortion was the NUMBER ONE ISSUE for people who voted. It’s not 2016 anymore.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out midterm versus presidential elections, and they are two different beasts. Dobbs does give Dems a boost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

I am so tired of linking this but literally in the 2022 midterms that produced landslide Democratic victories in both Michigan and Pennsylvania abortion was the NUMBER ONE ISSUE for people who voted. It’s not 2016 anymore.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out midterm versus presidential elections, and they are two different beasts. Dobbs does give Dems a boost.

Presidentials have higher turnout than midterms which has historically been better for Democrats forever.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

I am so tired of linking this but literally in the 2022 midterms that produced landslide Democratic victories in both Michigan and Pennsylvania abortion was the NUMBER ONE ISSUE for people who voted. It’s not 2016 anymore.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out midterm versus presidential elections, and they are two different beasts. Dobbs does give Dems a boost.

Presidentials have higher turnout than midterms which has historically been better for Democrats forever.

Two other important factors:

1. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona all have Democratic governors, which will provide a shield against Republican election shenanigans. Plus Georgia’s governor, Brian Kemp, has made it clear he has no intention to rig the election for Trump.

2. Trump is just a private citizen this time around, not the incumbent president. He only has the powers of a private citizen. So if he calls on an army of loyalists to attack the United States Capitol, it will be put down quickly by authorities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

Ohio along with Florida, though they used to be swing states, are trending towards being a safe bet to go red in the 2024 general election. Assuming they do, Trump or any other Republican candidate that replaces him still needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to have a realistic path to winning in 2024. If both Mich & Pa go red, which is unlikely, Biden would have an uphill climb to 270. Currently, Biden is favored by a small margin in both Mich & Pa. I'll sleep better at night when Biden extends that margin. There are a few other potentially important states that could go either way and but I think Mich and Pa are two to keep a close eye on as they will dictate how important those other states with less electoral votes are.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

Ohio along with Florida, though they used to be swing states, are trending towards being a safe bet to go red in the 2024 general election. Assuming they do, Trump or any other Republican candidate that replaces him still needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to have a realistic path to winning in 2024. If both Mich & Pa go red, which is unlikely, Biden would have an uphill climb to 270. Currently, Biden is favored by a small margin in both Mich & Pa. I'll sleep better at night when Biden extends that margin. There are a few other potentially important states that could go either way and but I think Mich and Pa are two to keep a close eye on as they will dictate how important those other states with less electoral votes are.

Yes I still think Ohio and Florida will likely go red but not a small part of that is right wing cheating. Peeling off votes to vote for the GOP’s third party spoiler candidate ensures that they go red, hence the GOP funding No Labels. They can’t even make a convincing policy page.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

I am so tired of linking this but literally in the 2022 midterms that produced landslide Democratic victories in both Michigan and Pennsylvania abortion was the NUMBER ONE ISSUE for people who voted. It’s not 2016 anymore.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out midterm versus presidential elections, and they are two different beasts. Dobbs does give Dems a boost.

Presidentials have higher turnout than midterms which has historically been better for Democrats forever.

Midterms traditionally go against the party of the President. Democrats were wiped out in 1994 and 2010, and picked up a lot of seats in 2006 and 2018. 2022 was supposed to be a Red Wave but they only picked up House seats due to reapportionment and redistricting following the Census. Democrats have won the popular vote in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections but lost the electoral vote in 2 of those. Heavy turnout favors Democrats except where Republicans suppress Black voters.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

Ohio along with Florida, though they used to be swing states, are trending towards being a safe bet to go red in the 2024 general election. Assuming they do, Trump or any other Republican candidate that replaces him still needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to have a realistic path to winning in 2024. If both Mich & Pa go red, which is unlikely, Biden would have an uphill climb to 270. Currently, Biden is favored by a small margin in both Mich & Pa. I'll sleep better at night when Biden extends that margin. There are a few other potentially important states that could go either way and but I think Mich and Pa are two to keep a close eye on as they will dictate how important those other states with less electoral votes are.

Yes I still think Ohio and Florida will likely go red but not a small part of that is right wing cheating. Peeling off votes to vote for the GOP’s third party spoiler candidate ensures that they go red, hence the GOP funding No Labels. They can’t even make a convincing policy page.

The people of Ohio were not interested in being conned around the august election aimed that was really aimed at the November referendum. Hopefully they are not interested in being conned by no labels

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Conservative here- I would vote for Manchin Gabbard.

Of course you would. That is the point. They aren't "dems" but have been labeled as such.

Here we go again. Let’s burn our teammates no matter how many times they pay their party dues and vote our way. Never good enough. I’ve seen Obama branded too conservative in these boards. It is sick.

No, what’s sick is the number of Republicans who like to pose as Democrats, or worse, Democrats who seemingly don’t understand what’s at stake here and what will happen if too many people peel off.

Your options are Biden or Trump. Do you not remember all that we lost under Trump? Assuming you’re actually a Democrat, do you think all the pride in racism that was unlocked is a positive? His degrading everything? Refusing to just be normal? You enjoyed that? You enjoyed the bile every morning when you picked up your phone and dirtbag Republicans just told you to “ignore it” like that’s a rational thing to have to do with a sitting president.

Do you not believe the GOP when they announce what they plan to do? What problem do you think will be solved by throwing away your vote on a nobody who can’t win? Do you think more poor people will get rights? You think the environment will get cleaned and global warming worked on? Do you think “drill, baby, drill” is going to go away?

Or maybe you always hated that women were slowly getting more rights?

There’s no upside in voting for a third party clown.

God help us if Biden has health issues like McConnell. But that will NEVER happen. HE WILL BE LUCID FOREVER.

Trump could have a health problem too, but everyone wants him to lose so that possibility does not need to be addressed.

I think the 22nd amendment should be repealed so that Trump and Biden's rotting corpses can run against each other for eternity. That appears to be what America wants.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Conservative here- I would vote for Manchin Gabbard.

Of course you would. That is the point. They aren't "dems" but have been labeled as such.

Here we go again. Let’s burn our teammates no matter how many times they pay their party dues and vote our way. Never good enough. I’ve seen Obama branded too conservative in these boards. It is sick.

No, what’s sick is the number of Republicans who like to pose as Democrats, or worse, Democrats who seemingly don’t understand what’s at stake here and what will happen if too many people peel off.

Your options are Biden or Trump. Do you not remember all that we lost under Trump? Assuming you’re actually a Democrat, do you think all the pride in racism that was unlocked is a positive? His degrading everything? Refusing to just be normal? You enjoyed that? You enjoyed the bile every morning when you picked up your phone and dirtbag Republicans just told you to “ignore it” like that’s a rational thing to have to do with a sitting president.

Do you not believe the GOP when they announce what they plan to do? What problem do you think will be solved by throwing away your vote on a nobody who can’t win? Do you think more poor people will get rights? You think the environment will get cleaned and global warming worked on? Do you think “drill, baby, drill” is going to go away?

Or maybe you always hated that women were slowly getting more rights?

There’s no upside in voting for a third party clown.

God help us if Biden has health issues like McConnell. But that will NEVER happen. HE WILL BE LUCID FOREVER.

Trump could have a health problem too, but everyone wants him to lose so that possibility does not need to be addressed.

I think the 22nd amendment should be repealed so that Trump and Biden's rotting corpses can run against each other for eternity. That appears to be what America wants.

We don't want trump anywhere near the white house ever again. If Biden can help protect us from that, so be it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Conservative here- I would vote for Manchin Gabbard.

Of course you would. That is the point. They aren't "dems" but have been labeled as such.

Here we go again. Let’s burn our teammates no matter how many times they pay their party dues and vote our way. Never good enough. I’ve seen Obama branded too conservative in these boards. It is sick.

No, what’s sick is the number of Republicans who like to pose as Democrats, or worse, Democrats who seemingly don’t understand what’s at stake here and what will happen if too many people peel off.

Your options are Biden or Trump. Do you not remember all that we lost under Trump? Assuming you’re actually a Democrat, do you think all the pride in racism that was unlocked is a positive? His degrading everything? Refusing to just be normal? You enjoyed that? You enjoyed the bile every morning when you picked up your phone and dirtbag Republicans just told you to “ignore it” like that’s a rational thing to have to do with a sitting president.

Do you not believe the GOP when they announce what they plan to do? What problem do you think will be solved by throwing away your vote on a nobody who can’t win? Do you think more poor people will get rights? You think the environment will get cleaned and global warming worked on? Do you think “drill, baby, drill” is going to go away?

Or maybe you always hated that women were slowly getting more rights?

There’s no upside in voting for a third party clown.

God help us if Biden has health issues like McConnell. But that will NEVER happen. HE WILL BE LUCID FOREVER.

Trump could have a health problem too, but everyone wants him to lose so that possibility does not need to be addressed.

I think the 22nd amendment should be repealed so that Trump and Biden's rotting corpses can run against each other for eternity. That appears to be what America wants.

We don't want trump anywhere near the white house ever again. If Biden can help protect us from that, so be it.

And if no labels thinks they can get trump in power again they are in for a ferocious fight.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Conservative here- I would vote for Manchin Gabbard.

Of course you would. That is the point. They aren't "dems" but have been labeled as such.

Here we go again. Let’s burn our teammates no matter how many times they pay their party dues and vote our way. Never good enough. I’ve seen Obama branded too conservative in these boards. It is sick.

No, what’s sick is the number of Republicans who like to pose as Democrats, or worse, Democrats who seemingly don’t understand what’s at stake here and what will happen if too many people peel off.

Your options are Biden or Trump. Do you not remember all that we lost under Trump? Assuming you’re actually a Democrat, do you think all the pride in racism that was unlocked is a positive? His degrading everything? Refusing to just be normal? You enjoyed that? You enjoyed the bile every morning when you picked up your phone and dirtbag Republicans just told you to “ignore it” like that’s a rational thing to have to do with a sitting president.

Do you not believe the GOP when they announce what they plan to do? What problem do you think will be solved by throwing away your vote on a nobody who can’t win? Do you think more poor people will get rights? You think the environment will get cleaned and global warming worked on? Do you think “drill, baby, drill” is going to go away?

Or maybe you always hated that women were slowly getting more rights?

There’s no upside in voting for a third party clown.

God help us if Biden has health issues like McConnell. But that will NEVER happen. HE WILL BE LUCID FOREVER.

Trump could have a health problem too, but everyone wants him to lose so that possibility does not need to be addressed.

I think the 22nd amendment should be repealed so that Trump and Biden's rotting corpses can run against each other for eternity. That appears to be what America wants.

We don't want trump anywhere near the white house ever again. If Biden can help protect us from that, so be it.

I don’t want the GOP anywhere near any office ever again. The party is tainted with treason, treachery, lawbreaking, women hating, generally trying to give our enemies every advantage and just general duckery.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

Ohio along with Florida, though they used to be swing states, are trending towards being a safe bet to go red in the 2024 general election. Assuming they do, Trump or any other Republican candidate that replaces him still needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to have a realistic path to winning in 2024. If both Mich & Pa go red, which is unlikely, Biden would have an uphill climb to 270. Currently, Biden is favored by a small margin in both Mich & Pa. I'll sleep better at night when Biden extends that margin. There are a few other potentially important states that could go either way and but I think Mich and Pa are two to keep a close eye on as they will dictate how important those other states with less electoral votes are.

Yes I still think Ohio and Florida will likely go red but not a small part of that is right wing cheating. Peeling off votes to vote for the GOP’s third party spoiler candidate ensures that they go red, hence the GOP funding No Labels. They can’t even make a convincing policy page.

Ohio and Florida are both solidly red in polling data for a Trump vs Biden match-up in 2024. These two states have been in Trump's corner since 2016. It just is what it is and this GOP 3rd party strategy isn't the reason for it. Trump can have Florida and Ohio. No need for Biden's camp to waste time and resources campaigning in those states. Biden is currently favored by a very small margin in Pennsylvania and Michigan. We want this margin to grow in Biden's favor between now and election day 2024. I'm sure the Biden camp knows this and will be campaigning like crazy in those two states. Focus on things we can control.

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Anonymous wrote:It isn’t a third party if they have only a candidate for President and no other candidates or state organizations. That’s just a spoiler campaign. There is no third party movement at all.

The one or two GOP/No Labels boosters were hoping you didn’t notice that.

Umkay. Let's see what the sentiment is a year from now when the fact that Biden isn't going to win finally becomes apparent to those living in la la land. It will be too late in the game to do anything about it and you folks who refused to see the obvious writing on the wall will be the ones to blame for a Trump victory. It's just ridiculous. Ignorance is what got Trump elected in 2016. Repeat.

Biden beat Trump in 2020. Yes he did. Trump lost. The GOP will have to try to play games in 2024 to have even a shred of hope for their truly terrible candidate. Trump is so weak, doubt that even no labels can do anything to help him much.

You missed PP’s point.

Pp thinks Biden will lose. What is hard to understand about that?

No. PP is saying that if something happens to Biden, there is no backup plan and no one is thinking about it. If, God forbid, Biden had a major stroke or died, Democrats will be SOL because they haven’t given any serious thought to that scenario. That is a huge issue.

If something happens to trump, the GOP has the same issue.

But the stupid GOP has been testing out other candidates!!!! God, the knee jerk reaction to a suggestion for the Democratic Party, but but but Trump like some adolescent trying to come up with an excuse for not doing their homework. Prepare to have someone who can beat both Trump and Biden. What is wrong with you people? This is the sort of crap that gave us Trump in the first place.

It’s not a knee jerk reaction. We have played this game before several times and lost. You hate Biden irrationally and really rather stupidly, we get it.

I posted the actual vote tallies upthread of what happens when there’s a spoiler candidate. Say it to yourself over and over again until you understand this fundamental truth: in our current system, there is no third party option. Nader, Nader, Sanders/Stein. We literally had two of the worst presidents in American history due to people like you who can’t get it through their thick skulls that you can’t just huff in, decide you don’t like either of the two options - Joseph “Cheddar Cheese” Biden and Donald “Liquid Feces You Can’t Hold In” Trump - and then proceed to try and wreck the election.

My god you third party people are beyond stupid.

There are no viable 3rd party candidates in the 2024 race at this point in time. Polling data for a head to head match-up between Trump & Biden indicates the likelihood of a Biden victory over Trump is at best a 50/50. Again, these are the same polls that showed Biden as a very clear favorite at this same point in time leading up to the 2020 election. Trump is the same awful and very beatable candidate he was in 2019/2020 but yet he is polling much better against the same guy he trailed by double digits in 2019. Read the room, the perception among voters of Biden's strength as a candidate has dwindled since 2019. That may not be fair but it is what it is. Shouting down a discussion that involves concerns of Biden's ability to beat Trump in 2024 is counter-productive. Most of us have the same goal in mind- keep Trump out of office. Some people are becoming troubled by what the polling data is indicating and the concern is valid. There are no easy solutions that will replace Biden with a candidate that will immediately be heavily favored to beat Trump. There may be no solution at all. The conversation is still valid and very important.

Polling data? This is the same election all over and we know what will happen in pa and ga and mi and az and the few other states that matter. Trump already lost in those states BEFORE the roe fiasco and the insurrection fiasco. Yet you argue he is stronger in those states now? Sure he is.

He has lost about 25% of the republicans. That means Biden wins everything he did before plus North Carolina and Florida.

Don't know about republicans. They seem to be lost causes. But any new voters, independent voters, swing voters, - will he manage to attract a single one?

We can assume that enough voters are smart enough to make the right choice on election day to guarantee a Biden victory by a wide margin but the current data tells a different story. The same polls that had Biden leading Trump by a very wide margin ahead of the 2020 election are now indicating a very tight, too close to call race. On election day, Trump outperformed the polling data in both 2016 and 2020. We had enough faith in the polling data in 2020 to make the right call in choosing Biden as the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. Based on that same logic, there is reason to be very concerned at this point. As discussed, it will be very difficult for any other candidate to step in at this juncture with a better chance of beating Trump than Biden. This being the case, we have some work to do in order to justify having the same confidence in a Biden victory as we did in 2020. Wisconsin appears to be safely in Biden's corner. The polling margins in Michigan and Pennsylvania are currently razor thin which should be very worrisome to those of us that don't want Trump back in office.

Polls seem to be limited use in recent memory. The actual elections that have taken place since 2020 have showed the left and the pro-choice issue being very motivating and very successful and I see no reason for that to not continue and strengthen and to impact the 2024 election in a significant way.

Sounds good. RvW being overturned will indeed continue to be a burden for candidates on the right for the foreseeable future. Let's ignore the polls and plan our election night party of celebrating Biden's landslide victory. Nothing could go wrong.

Then please explain how trump will escape this "burden" (talk about minimizing a big issue) and win the swing states?

Let's hope he doesn't. I'm rooted in the DC metro area. Like most others from this area, the things that are primary motivations in my voting decisions are different from a large portion of the people living in states that are very important to the 2024 election such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. I am fortunate to live in an area with an abundance of high paying jobs and financial opportunity. I've seen a generation of people that bought 1200 sq ft colonials for 75k in the 1970s go on to realize appreciation that has taken those values to the 700k to 1mil range in many local areas and 500k to 600k in the less desirable areas. People from that same generation stuck in many parts of Pennsylvania and Michigan paid 75k for that same home in the 1970s and now those homes have market values in the 125k to 150k range. It is doubtful that any recent presidential administration could have done something to lessen this inequity but many voters in those states will continue to vote for the promise of "change" until they see the same improvements in quality of life and opportunity that other parts of the country have experienced in recent decades. Most of these people aren't "deplorables". They simply have different priorities when it comes to the primary motivations behind their voting decisions. The costs of a gallon of gas and a gallon of milk matters more to them than many of the things we are currently fired up about when going to the polls. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in 2016 after those states were won by Obama in 2008 and 2012. Those three states decided the 2016 election. The 2016 results in the other 47 states were pretty close to predictable. I'm afraid Michigan and Pennsylvania are truly 50/50 swing states again regardless of how ridiculous that sounds to most of us living in the DC metro area. Trump will campaign the heck out those states and many will once again fall for the promise of change. If either or both of these states are swung back to red in 2024, Trump's path to victory will be much easier.

Stop lying. Trump’s most devoted voters make more than $100,000 a year. They are not the downtrodden “making different decisions” sad sacks you want to believe them to be/sell them as. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html

Unlike you I’m not from the DC area and I grew up surrounded by conservatives and still socialize with (and am related to) them. Stop writing them excuses they aren’t even giving.

Yep, come to Lake County Ohio. It’s the land of 4500 square foot homes, boats outside second garages, and Trump 2024 banners.

Ohio is not a swing state.

Who said it needed to be? It’s one of the states important in the election.

How so? Is there any chance trump does not get its electoral votes.... one less than in 2024 due to dropping population? Outcome in Ohio seems definitely trump.

Three things:
1) the way Republicans treated covid means more of them died, and more of them have post covid sequelae and will continue to die. They are an aging population and accelerated that through their own choices.
2) as natural and unnatural attrition occurs, the new generation is becoming eligible to vote - and Millennials aren’t becoming more conservative.
3) ABORTION RIGHTS.

Then we the GOP con job “No Labels” with their mealy mouthed garbage takes - seriously I cannot emphasize how much you all need to go read what passes for policy positions on their site. It is so clearly not a sincere party.

Ok. Then let's go Ohio!! I thought they were a lost cause to trump but maybe not.

Ohio along with Florida, though they used to be swing states, are trending towards being a safe bet to go red in the 2024 general election. Assuming they do, Trump or any other Republican candidate that replaces him still needs Michigan or Pennsylvania to have a realistic path to winning in 2024. If both Mich & Pa go red, which is unlikely, Biden would have an uphill climb to 270. Currently, Biden is favored by a small margin in both Mich & Pa. I'll sleep better at night when Biden extends that margin. There are a few other potentially important states that could go either way and but I think Mich and Pa are two to keep a close eye on as they will dictate how important those other states with less electoral votes are.

Yes I still think Ohio and Florida will likely go red but not a small part of that is right wing cheating. Peeling off votes to vote for the GOP’s third party spoiler candidate ensures that they go red, hence the GOP funding No Labels. They can’t even make a convincing policy page.

Ohio and Florida are both solidly red in polling data for a Trump vs Biden match-up in 2024. These two states have been in Trump's corner since 2016. It just is what it is and this GOP 3rd party strategy isn't the reason for it. Trump can have Florida and Ohio. No need for Biden's camp to waste time and resources campaigning in those states. Biden is currently favored by a very small margin in Pennsylvania and Michigan. We want this margin to grow in Biden's favor between now and election day 2024. I'm sure the Biden camp knows this and will be campaigning like crazy in those two states. Focus on things we can control.

Florida is no way in play for Dems. The GOP machine is too strong. Don’t sleep on North Carolina. That can go Biden with some work.