# of colleges on your kid's list

[Anonymous]

I think 12 or 13? But DD is chasing merit.

[Anonymous]

Mine applied to 15. One was a super reach, 4 were reaches (2 because it's really that tough and 2 which were really lottery), some targets and some safeties.

Safeties were the hardest for my DC to select b/c they really didn't want to go to any of them. I think the problem we ran into is that DC chose safeties based upon which schools they were backing up. For example, Indiana was a backup to Wisconsin, but Wisconsin was a backup to Michigan. DC didn't really care about Indiana and various factors changed between application time and selection time. We were given lots of warnings, so DC added more schools, but Indiana, in this example, wasn't necessary. I don't think all safeties had extra essays.

DC was high stats and was aiming for T25 schools, so they had to apply to more schools. If DC was looking at schools with higher acceptance rates, I think a lower number would have been fine. It's hard to look at it objectively, though, on this side since I have seen how it all played out.

[Anonymous]

My kid has 11 on his list. He has 4 in so far with one acceptance. But this was at a school that he would rather not go to. Just too far away. But we (his parents) wanted him to get an early acceptance. Two more will go in this week. Those would have been sooner but apparently EA for these schools is rolling admissions. Lastly, he has 3 liberal arts colleges that he has shown an interest in, but we feel he is now leaning towards a bigger school.

[Anonymous]

Whittled down to 13 w/4 schools requiring supplementals

[Anonymous]

Did you kid edit list based on any recent test results (Aug and Sept SAT and ACT for example)?

[Anonymous]

Try to calculate the aggregated probability if you want to land on at least one reach.

Probably want an aggregated probability greater than 60% to be sure for landing a reach. Based on that, you can figure out how many reaches you should have. Assuming all high stats.

[Anonymous]

I think 5-6 right now but we need to start looking and making a list. Will do around 10-15 minimum.

[Anonymous]

19 on list. Will get it down to no more than 12. Feeling a bit of pressure to ED - but has no clear first choice. High stats, solid ECs, and the type of kid who would be happy at any of the current 19 on the list.

[Anonymous]

The list has 14 total. 1 ED, 10 EA. DC will add 3 more in RD if ED doesn’t work out.

[Anonymous]

My kid (SAT low 1500’s, 3.8 UW, private school, not STEM) applied to 11. List was pretty evenly balanced amongst likelies, targets and reaches. Only 1 T-10 in the list. It worked out well for them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Try to calculate the aggregated probability if you want to land on at least one reach.

Probably want an aggregated probability greater than 60% to be sure for landing a reach. Based on that, you can figure out how many reaches you should have. Assuming all high stats.

How do you calculate the aggregated probability?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Try to calculate the aggregated probability if you want to land on at least one reach.

Probably want an aggregated probability greater than 60% to be sure for landing a reach. Based on that, you can figure out how many reaches you should have. Assuming all high stats.

How do you calculate the aggregated probability?

DP

If you want the probability of getting into at lest one reach, then assuming that it is only random chance that is keeping you out then take the rejection rates and multiply them together and then subtract the product from 1.

So for example if you are applying to 2 schools, one with and acceptance rate of 70% and another with an acceptance rate of 60% acceptance rate, then you take 30% times 40%, or 12% and that is your rejection rate. The more schools you have the better your chances but all of this assumes you are the average applicant at that acceptance rate and only random chance would determine whether you get in or not.

[Anonymous]

Anyone apply to less than 5?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Try to calculate the aggregated probability if you want to land on at least one reach.

Probably want an aggregated probability greater than 60% to be sure for landing a reach. Based on that, you can figure out how many reaches you should have. Assuming all high stats.

How do you calculate the aggregated probability?

DP

If you want the probability of getting into at lest one reach, then assuming that it is only random chance that is keeping you out then take the rejection rates and multiply them together and then subtract the product from 1.

So for example if you are applying to 2 schools, one with and acceptance rate of 70% and another with an acceptance rate of 60% acceptance rate, then you take 30% times 40%, or 12% and that is your rejection rate. The more schools you have the better your chances but all of this assumes you are the average applicant at that acceptance rate and only random chance would determine whether you get in or not.

This works for probabilities around dice rolling, where the outcome is actually random, but it doesn't apply to college admissions. College admissions are independent in an administrative sense, but not independent according to the definition used in statistics / probability theory. That is … don't think that just because you've added Yet Another Ultra Reach that you've necessarily gotten yourself over some statistical threshold and so have increased the likelihood that you'll get in to a T20.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Try to calculate the aggregated probability if you want to land on at least one reach.

Probably want an aggregated probability greater than 60% to be sure for landing a reach. Based on that, you can figure out how many reaches you should have. Assuming all high stats.

Clueless in every respect.