Finally OSSE 2024 enrollment audit data is up!

[Anonymous]

I don't understand why Brent has combined 4th and 5th grade if it has 29 5th graders. Couldn't that just be one class of 5th graders?

It's amazing to me that Anacostia HS has so few students--only 244.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I see a lot of kids assigned to a charter school, but it looks like they are attending private therapuetic schools all over the region (not only LAB School, but also programs in Annadale, Springfield, PG County, MoCo....even one kid doing a therapeutic residential program in Arkansas).

Is it "easier" to get a private school placement for therapeutic services for SN kids via a DC charter school rather than through DCPS? I ask because we have a kid in DC PreK already with an IEP and lots of therapies, so I'm wondering if this is something we will need to consider as our child progresses through the DC system.

Thanks!

Yes it is easier I believe. The charters have more financial flexibility and less capacity to handle higher-needs students. It’s also easier to get a 1:1 aid. I know a kid who went from DCPS being pushed towards self-contained to an immediate 1:1 aid in a charter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:late for a meeting so can't look up for a while - how's Deal doing? have they maanged to brig the numbers down at all?

1396, 1391, 1420 over the past three years. So, no.

Getting enrollment at Deal under control is going to be difficult, barring the addition of a new middle school or ES's getting removed from the feeder, neither of which are at all likely to happen.

When did Eaton lose grandfathering rights to Deal? Was there a big shift then (and an uptick in Hardy numbers)?

[Anonymous]

I didn't see any numbers for Bancroft. The school is bursting at the seams. I can't see the data that all of you seem to be seeing. What are the numbers for Bancroft?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I didn't see any numbers for Bancroft. The school is bursting at the seams. I can't see the data that all of you seem to be seeing. What are the numbers for Bancroft?

768 students this year vs 716 the prior year (~ 7% increase)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:late for a meeting so can't look up for a while - how's Deal doing? have they maanged to brig the numbers down at all?

1396, 1391, 1420 over the past three years. So, no.

Getting enrollment at Deal under control is going to be difficult, barring the addition of a new middle school or ES's getting removed from the feeder, neither of which are at all likely to happen.

When did Eaton lose grandfathering rights to Deal? Was there a big shift then (and an uptick in Hardy numbers)?

The only notable enrollment dip at Deal -- and it was only 4.6 percent -- happened between 2020-21 and 2021-22, and that almost certainly was because of the pandemic. Removing Eaton from the Deal path did nothing to ease Deal's enrollment.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Gentrification Watch! Schools with a low percentage of white students that saw a notable increase in the number of white students:

Amidon-Bowen 40->51

Barnard 44->60

Bunker Hill 14->27

Burroughs 50->79

Eliot-Hine 37->57

JO Wilson 39->49

LaSalle-Backus 5->13

Seaton 72->82

Shepherd 99->114

Stuart-Hobson 59->78

Tyler 99->117

Wheatley 7->16

Whittier 38->50

Curious about if there are any schools where that % persists through 4th or 5th grade. I’m too tired to dig in the data myself but my unscientific study (using my eyes) at one of the schools on that list where I have a (white) rising 3rd grader and we are bailing next year for a Hardy feeder says PK3/PK4 classes are half white, 4th and 5th grade classes have 1-2 non Black kids max. I don’t think the school is unique in that.

that was the pattern at our EH feeder, but it changed significantly as more people started to choose EH. The 5th grade still loses a lot of kids but the demographics are overall more balanced than they were 10 yrs ago.

NP and our child is in K at one of those schools listed and the description above is acurate. The racial diversity diminishes in 3-5th grades. But PreK-1 have a large proportion of white students.

+1. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that this is true across the board at poorly performing schools.

The achievement gap gets real in 1st and up and it’s not all rose colored glasses like it is in ECE.

There is the same trend at high performing schools without a MS feeder -- it's just that sometimes it increases racial diversity at those schools.

If you are talking about Capitol Hill schools, that trend doesn’t happen till about 4th grade because kids leave for charters. At the other schools this happens a lot earlier, starting in K and most families leave by 1st/2nd. It is absolutely because of the achievement gap and not because of the MS school feed.

We're at a DCPS with an underwhelming MS feeder. What I've seen most is families that move when their oldest hits middle school. So oldest stays through fifth, middle/younger stays through middle elementary assuming a 2-3 year age gap. Of the families I know that have done this, many seem to have 3 kids. Possibly because they're outgrowing their DC rowhouse anyways, or possibly because the logistics of juggling the lottery and preferences for 3 kids is too much of a hassle. Families with 1-2 kids either leave after pre-K or K depending on their lottery luck, or stay through upper elementary and try the fifth grade lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
It's amazing to me that Anacostia HS has so few students--only 244.

In 2022-23 there were almost as many Anacostia-zoned students at Eastern (184) as at Anacostia (188).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If you want to know about race by year, you can look at the PARCC data -- the total counts, not the scores. For some schools it will be redacted but you can usually piece something together.

I just spent some time working around the redacted PARCC numbers for our IB elementary. I was more interested in the economic disadvantage rate by grade than race by grade (it's also easier to fill in the data blanks with 2 categories vs 4+) and was pretty blown away. Jumps from 44% in 3rd to 64% in 4th to 78% in 5th. Wow.

Nearby neighborhood schools we're interested in lotterying into for upper elementary looked a lot better though still with sizeable jumps in 5th.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you want to know about race by year, you can look at the PARCC data -- the total counts, not the scores. For some schools it will be redacted but you can usually piece something together.

I just spent some time working around the redacted PARCC numbers for our IB elementary. I was more interested in the economic disadvantage rate by grade than race by grade (it's also easier to fill in the data blanks with 2 categories vs 4+) and was pretty blown away. Jumps from 44% in 3rd to 64% in 4th to 78% in 5th. Wow.

Nearby neighborhood schools we're interested in lotterying into for upper elementary looked a lot better though still with sizeable jumps in 5th.

Do remember if it's a gentrifying school that each grade is likely also a bit more gentrified than the one before it.

So the current 3rd grade might go 44->60->70 or whatever... Whereas the current 5th may have gone 50-->68-->78... if that makes sense. That is, just make sure you remember it's not the same actual kids in each grade, so gentrification trends matter in addition to grade trends.

[Anonymous]

Students in-boundary for Tyler/Chisholm who do not want a Spanish immersion program now have boundary privileges at Payne starting in K. That might partially explain the increase in the number of students at Payne.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Students in-boundary for Tyler/Chisholm who do not want a Spanish immersion program now have boundary privileges at Payne starting in K. That might partially explain the increase in the number of students at Payne.

Payne is also heavily gentrifying/getting more IB buy-in each year. Test data for all demographics newly available and looks excellent; will accelerate the trend just like it did at Ludlow-Taylor. I think it will be the next Hill school to follow the Brent/Maury/L-T progression. Check back in 5 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Students in-boundary for Tyler/Chisholm who do not want a Spanish immersion program now have boundary privileges at Payne starting in K. That might partially explain the increase in the number of students at Payne.

They are adding one grade per year to the full Spanish program at Tyler/Chisolm so thus far it is only early childhood and therefore no mandatory school-age kids have had to choose between Spanish or not Spanish. The bump if there is one will start this coming year. I think the enrollment increase at Payne is a combination of factors: families who are enrolled are not leaving, and the school continues to open seats on lottery which allows for OOB admission as well. (Ex last year there were 20 seats open in the kindergarten lottery, in addition to all rising PK4 students, and any in bounds kinder families who wanted to enroll.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you want to know about race by year, you can look at the PARCC data -- the total counts, not the scores. For some schools it will be redacted but you can usually piece something together.

I just spent some time working around the redacted PARCC numbers for our IB elementary. I was more interested in the economic disadvantage rate by grade than race by grade (it's also easier to fill in the data blanks with 2 categories vs 4+) and was pretty blown away. Jumps from 44% in 3rd to 64% in 4th to 78% in 5th. Wow.

Nearby neighborhood schools we're interested in lotterying into for upper elementary looked a lot better though still with sizeable jumps in 5th.

Do remember if it's a gentrifying school that each grade is likely also a bit more gentrified than the one before it.

So the current 3rd grade might go 44->60->70 or whatever... Whereas the current 5th may have gone 50-->68-->78... if that makes sense. That is, just make sure you remember it's not the same actual kids in each grade, so gentrification trends matter in addition to grade trends.

Thanks. Unfortunately a mix of better redaction in SY21-22 and no PARCC data SY19-20 or SY20-21 is limiting my ability to glean any additional insights.

I did go back to previous year's audits for school-wide at-risk numbers and found the school went from a consistent 30-31% at risk to 36% and then 46% over the course of two years. Yikes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you want to know about race by year, you can look at the PARCC data -- the total counts, not the scores. For some schools it will be redacted but you can usually piece something together.

I just spent some time working around the redacted PARCC numbers for our IB elementary. I was more interested in the economic disadvantage rate by grade than race by grade (it's also easier to fill in the data blanks with 2 categories vs 4+) and was pretty blown away. Jumps from 44% in 3rd to 64% in 4th to 78% in 5th. Wow.

Nearby neighborhood schools we're interested in lotterying into for upper elementary looked a lot better though still with sizeable jumps in 5th.

Do remember if it's a gentrifying school that each grade is likely also a bit more gentrified than the one before it.

So the current 3rd grade might go 44->60->70 or whatever... Whereas the current 5th may have gone 50-->68-->78... if that makes sense. That is, just make sure you remember it's not the same actual kids in each grade, so gentrification trends matter in addition to grade trends.

Thanks. Unfortunately a mix of better redaction in SY21-22 and no PARCC data SY19-20 or SY20-21 is limiting my ability to glean any additional insights.

I did go back to previous year's audits for school-wide at-risk numbers and found the school went from a consistent 30-31% at risk to 36% and then 46% over the course of two years. Yikes.

Not sure which school this is even about, and I realize this is a bit off topic, but the 'yikes' response to an increase in at risk population made me cringe.