What is a realistic life expectancy assumption. 90, 120, or more?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:US life expectancy is going down. Don't worry about past 90.

It’s going down because we’re importing hordes of third world immigrants and lots of people are ODing on fentanyl. This won’t affect your lifespan.

The percentage of the US population that are immigrants is lower in 2024 than it was in 2019 and significantly lower than it was in 1890.

Where is your 2023/2024 data from? The annual US population growth rate has been trending downward for decades, but the percentage of immigrants comprising the total US population has been trending upward for half a century:

1890: 14.8%
—
1950: 6.9%
1960: 5.4%
1970: 4.7%
1980: 6.2%
1990: 7.9%
2000: 11.1%
2010: 12.9%
2019: 13.7%
2022: 13.9%

Migration Policy

[Anonymous]

This is DCUM where everyone is above average.

I googled and it seems 36% of women will live to be at least 90 (higher than I thought) but only 16% of men.

But you only have maybe 2.5% chance of living to be 100 if you're a white woman. Currently 1 out of every 5,000 Americans is 100+ years old.

I don't doubt you can look at your own family and your own health and and economic levels and make a decent prediction for how long you might live. But even 100 years old is extremely rare.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP —you’re in your 30s, you said. When you’re in your 50s, and some friends have died and others are dealing with health conditions, and your own body starts failing in various ways, you will no longer feel that you need to plan for living past 100. You’ll be hoping to make it to 80 in relatively good health.

Most of the people I know in their 50s and 60s are pretty healthy with no real concerns. I don't know anyone who has died (except by a car accident or whatever) and I'm in my 50s and don't really feel any aging effects yet. I think of what you're talking about as how you might feel in your 70s and 80s. My parents are in their 80s and still going strong--though they have a couple of health concerns. My grandparents passed away in their late 90s. So I think this really varies person to person/social circle to social circle. My parents are definitely planning to live to 100--and given that their parents all made it well into their 90s it doesn't seem too unlikely.

If you are in your 50s and you don’t know anyone who has died, count yourself lucky. I am 56. High school friend died of brain cancer at 55. High school acquaintance died of an asthma attack in his 30s. College friend keeled over and died of a heart attack at 27 while running a half marathon. And i know plenty of people who have started taking blood pressure and cholesterol medication in their 50s even though their lifestyle hasn’t changed and they were healthy up until now. The body breaks down as we get older.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lifespans are going down. People are much fatter than they used to be

This is only relevant to people like you who are fat. The rest of us are fine. You should try to stop being fat.

DP: And actually the evidence is quite mixed with regard to weight and life expectancy. Overweight is often associated with longer life expectancy while obesity is mixed. Severe and morbid obesity is much more clearly associated with lower life expectancy. There are all sorts of complicating factors too.

[Anonymous]

100 is a good number. Hopefully we all don’t live that long but we might .

[Anonymous]

Two things -- yes people 30 today will live longer.

And even 90 will feel like what 80 feels like today.

There is an upper limit on how long the body can last but 90 aint it.

[Anonymous]

My parents are now 81 and 83, 100% healthy and fit. I’m planning for 105 ish and I’ll be broke by then LOL

My dad was 84, walking multiple miles a day and playing squash a couple times a week until he fell a couple times. The brain tumor they discovered after that got him in five months. Life comes at you fast.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:US life expectancy is going down. Don't worry about past 90.

Not among the typical DCUM demographic, though. It’s going up if you’re UMC white.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:US life expectancy is going down. Don't worry about past 90.

Not among the typical DCUM demographic, though. It’s going up if you’re UMC white.

I’d be interested to see a breakdown of life expectancy by social class and race.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:US life expectancy is going down. Don't worry about past 90.

Not among the typical DCUM demographic, though. It’s going up if you’re UMC white.

I’d be interested to see a breakdown of life expectancy by social class and race.

http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/health/#:~:text=Income%20in%20the%20United%20States,are%20growing%20rapidly%20over%20time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:US life expectancy is going down. Don't worry about past 90.

Not among the typical DCUM demographic, though. It’s going up if you’re UMC white.

I’d be interested to see a breakdown of life expectancy by social class and race.

http://www.equality-of-opportunity.org/health/#:~:text=Income%20in%20the%20United%20States,are%20growing%20rapidly%20over%20time.

A 1 year gap between men and women in the top 1% versus six years in the bottom 1%. Impressive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lifespans are going down. People are much fatter than they used to be

This is only relevant to people like you who are fat. The rest of us are fine. You should try to stop being fat.

If only you could try being less stupid.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lifespans are going down. People are much fatter than they used to be

This is only relevant to people like you who are fat. The rest of us are fine. You should try to stop being fat.

If only you could try being less stupid.

It's not healthy to be fat. You also don't see very many fat elderly people over 75.

[Anonymous]

Fascinating. My number is 95!

I have done some genealogical research and on my maternal side, relatives were living into their 80s well over 150 years ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Good question, I count in steps of 30. Planning 30-60-90. Money really only has to last from 70-90. If you make it to 120 - not sure how a society would be able to absorb all these old people. 50 years retirement is long.

That will blow up social security even more than it has been blown up. Can you imagine a society where all of these old people need a ton of care for 50 years each? Why would you want that? Maybe a pig heart can be transplanted into your body but your brain will definitely be fried. If you live past 100 it will be a few years. And your quality of life will probably not be great.

Retirement age will go up by 10y.
Can start receiving SS at age 72 and full benefits at 77.