Here is why we should close schools now.

[Anonymous]

So remember the question isn’t do we close the schools?

The question is do we close schools proactively and get the benefits or reactively and lose the benefits?

Honestly though the time to close proactively has likely been lost.

We are already several weeks into this outbreak at least. We just don’t have the tests that prove it.

So frustrated with our country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?

Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.

Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.

On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?

I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?

Schools WILL CLOSE during the peak of an outbreak.

I 100% guarantee it.

As soon as ICUs fill up they will close.

It has happened in every country so far. It will happen here too unless they keep the ICUs functioning some way without sufficient PPE

So if a drug is found that prevents the illness from progressing into pneumonia.

God I hope they close long before the peak.

[Anonymous]

Children are the best transmitters for these viruses. If you want to predict what the death rate will be for a flu season, check the rates of flu cases of 4 year olds in early fall. That number helps epidemiologists project how many will die by springtime when the flu dies down. Of course, it’s the elderly and immune compromised that have the dire consequences.

That’s why flu vaccines for children can have the greatest impact. The more they are protected from getting it, the fewer deaths for others.

This is why closing schools is a really good idea. It’s not because kids are dying from the virus, but because they more easily transmit it than others.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?

Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.

Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.

On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?

I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?

A question or you: you say "I haven't seen strong scientific evidence", but have you looked enough? Are you familiar with reading scientific literature on topics slightly outside of your lane? Have you read scientific articles, reviews, guidelines, on non-pharmaceutical interventions? Or are you just trying to keep the doomers occupied typing?

Yes, I have looked and I read the literature as it comes out. Hence my questions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So remember the question isn’t do we close the schools?

The question is do we close schools proactively and get the benefits or reactively and lose the benefits?

Honestly though the time to close proactively has likely been lost.

We are already several weeks into this outbreak at least. We just don’t have the tests that prove it.

So frustrated with our country.

You mean frustrated with Democratic local leaders who are too scared of the working parents who don't have childcare revolt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Children are the best transmitters for these viruses. If you want to predict what the death rate will be for a flu season, check the rates of flu cases of 4 year olds in early fall. That number helps epidemiologists project how many will die by springtime when the flu dies down. Of course, it’s the elderly and immune compromised that have the dire consequences.

That’s why flu vaccines for children can have the greatest impact. The more they are protected from getting it, the fewer deaths for others.

This is why closing schools is a really good idea. It’s not because kids are dying from the virus, but because they more easily transmit it than others.

COVID-19 is not the flu.

[Anonymous]

Wow. I thought I was easily panicked. This thread is nuts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So remember the question isn’t do we close the schools?

The question is do we close schools proactively and get the benefits or reactively and lose the benefits?

Honestly though the time to close proactively has likely been lost.

We are already several weeks into this outbreak at least. We just don’t have the tests that prove it.

So frustrated with our country.

And it's not so bad. So why would we close the schools again?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Wow. I thought I was easily panicked. This thread is nuts.

The Coronavirus dcum threads are populated by some crazies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?

Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.

Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.

On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?

I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?

You're correct - this isn't like the flu, and assertions that it will just "go away" in the summer are unfounded. The point of closing schools is to slow down the spread, so our health system can keep up with patients. When infections get down to a manageable level and we have built up our capacity more (things like a good PPE manufacturing and distribution volume) then schools can reopen even if there is some spread.

Waiting for manufacturing and distribution capacity to meet pandemic requirements will be literally years, particularly if China blocks export. Are you proposing that schools should close for years?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Sort of weird there's so much panic here but very little in real life, at least in my circles. Is it just a few doomsday posters?

Not to sound snippy but it's possible that no-one in your real life circle feels comfortable enough to share their concerns.

Here are two Twitter threads for you to glance over. You may think they are doomers. They sound very reasonable and fact-based to me but it's been adapted for layman understanding and the Twitter platform's format.

On why close schools:
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1235204443362205699

On what the exponential nature of this disease's spread implies:
https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909

Is there any evidence that covid-19 will behave like the flu as far as disappearing after a season? All of these links (and posters in this thread) seem to be acting as if it's known science that covid-19 will behave the way the flu does, and so closing schools will be a temporary measure that slows an epidemic. But why? It is entirely possible covid-19 will not act like the flu, and then what result? Do schools remain permanently closed?

I'm not opposed to closing schools in a more widespread fashion, but I haven't seen strong scientific evidence that it will work the was people claim it will, and it will come with enormous social costs. The science that there is seems to be based on the flu, but don't it we already know covid-19 doesn't uniformly act like the flu, particularly with respect to transmission through children? What basis is there for assuming the flu models are correct here?

A question or you: you say "I haven't seen strong scientific evidence", but have you looked enough? Are you familiar with reading scientific literature on topics slightly outside of your lane? Have you read scientific articles, reviews, guidelines, on non-pharmaceutical interventions? Or are you just trying to keep the doomers occupied typing?

Yes, I have looked and I read the literature as it comes out. Hence my questions.

As it comes out? Have you started reading on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions before this coronavirus? There is a lot more to read than what has been published in a hurry in the past 2 months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Children are the best transmitters for these viruses. If you want to predict what the death rate will be for a flu season, check the rates of flu cases of 4 year olds in early fall. That number helps epidemiologists project how many will die by springtime when the flu dies down. Of course, it’s the elderly and immune compromised that have the dire consequences.

That’s why flu vaccines for children can have the greatest impact. The more they are protected from getting it, the fewer deaths for others.

This is why closing schools is a really good idea. It’s not because kids are dying from the virus, but because they more easily transmit it than others.

COVID-19 is not the flu.

Who said it was?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Mortality rate for the age group between 9 and 19 years old is

0.2%

That is two children for every 1000 sick.

Just MCPS has 160K students. Lots of them with health issues like asthma.

And they expose the virus to parents and grandparents who likely have health issues as well and are at even greater risk of serious consequences/death.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Children are the best transmitters for these viruses. If you want to predict what the death rate will be for a flu season, check the rates of flu cases of 4 year olds in early fall. That number helps epidemiologists project how many will die by springtime when the flu dies down. Of course, it’s the elderly and immune compromised that have the dire consequences.

That’s why flu vaccines for children can have the greatest impact. The more they are protected from getting it, the fewer deaths for others.

This is why closing schools is a really good idea. It’s not because kids are dying from the virus, but because they more easily transmit it than others.

COVID-19 is not the flu.

Who said it was?

PP above and all the other posters who are relying exclusively on flu models to justify broad school closures.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So remember the question isn’t do we close the schools?

The question is do we close schools proactively and get the benefits or reactively and lose the benefits?

Honestly though the time to close proactively has likely been lost.

We are already several weeks into this outbreak at least. We just don’t have the tests that prove it.

So frustrated with our country.

And it's not so bad. So why would we close the schools again?

NP - to try to keep it from getting "so bad."