Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know we all desperately want to believe that Maryland has it under control, and things are going to be getting back to normal.

I don't believe that they possibly can. The reason I say that is that no other country has managed to get COVID under control while still allowing even the fairly low rates of transmission that we now have in the state of Maryland. The countries that have it more or less under control all have rates of spread of less than 10 new cases per million per day. Some far, far less -- like under 1 new case per million per day. And when they see even a "small" outbreak involving community spread, maybe 30 cases per day for a few days... the intervene quickly and shut that hotspot back down for 14 days to squelch spread.

Montgomery County is really low spread right now. 221 new cases in the past week so about 30 new cases per day per million. But Maryland as a state is high. 71 new cases per million per day. And DC is high .... 61 new cases per million per day. And when we have outbreaks, we aren't doing much to shut them down, and neither are our surrounding locations. And with people going on vacations and returning to college from other locations, cases will only rise.

If people are allowed to pee in the swimming pool, you can't say one section of the pool is pee free. IF we have spread in one part of the state or country we are going to have spread in all parts. It might not come back to us for a while, but it will come back to us, and we are going to have to do another shutdown.

How do you know what we’re doing with positive cases? We have a contact tracing operation that can handle 1000 cases a day, well above what we’re seeing. Yes we aren’t sealing people into their homes like in China, but we’re also not just sitting on our hands.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
How do you know what we’re doing with positive cases? We have a contact tracing operation that can handle 1000 cases a day, well above what we’re seeing. Yes we aren’t sealing people into their homes like in China, but we’re also not just sitting on our hands.

Because we are running out of testing capacity. It is taking people up to 5-7 days now to get test results back and since cases are exploding elsewhere, I don't see that improving any time soon.

You can't reopen a society and include schools, buses, etc. at the rate of spread we have, without rapid testing, and we don't have that and won't have that. 90% mask wearing will help some but mathematically it will not be enough.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
How do you know what we’re doing with positive cases? We have a contact tracing operation that can handle 1000 cases a day, well above what we’re seeing. Yes we aren’t sealing people into their homes like in China, but we’re also not just sitting on our hands.

Because we are running out of testing capacity. It is taking people up to 5-7 days now to get test results back and since cases are exploding elsewhere, I don't see that improving any time soon.

You can't reopen a society and include schools, buses, etc. at the rate of spread we have, without rapid testing, and we don't have that and won't have that. 90% mask wearing will help some but mathematically it will not be enough.

You’re talking about different things.

No one has rapid tests. Yes it’s necessary, but I’m not aware of any country that has ACCURATE rapid tests.

As for contact tracing—aka dealing with outbreaks when they’re identified—yes we are doing that.

[Anonymous]

And because I can find *no* other country or region that has successfully been able to reopen, including in person schools, with the rates of new COVID infections per day, that Maryland has (and Maryland is doing really well, though not as well as Rhode Island and Connecticut.)

They all have gotten their new cases down to very close to nothing; and are the extinguishing local outbreaks with lockdowns and quarantines -- even if the outbreaks don't consist of the elderly with high deaths. They do them just to reduce spread.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hogan can shut the schools down. He can't force schools which are already providing online classes to provide in-person classes.

Thank Goodness. Schools need to be DL till next year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hogan can shut the schools down. He can't force schools which are already providing online classes to provide in-person classes.

Thank Goodness. Schools need to be DL till next year.

This argument is getting so tired. Everyone will have the option to do 100% DL this year. Some of us though, actually want our elementary age kids to be educated. And some of us don't live in constant fear every day and lock ourselves in our house.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Maryland was yellow on this map up until a few days ago, now it's red. Outlook is not great:
https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

This site updated because in their own words on the site

July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.

As a data scientist who works with a team of folks who does visualization, it told the wrong story using a simple stoplight visualization focused on cases so glad they are fixing it.

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.

[Anonymous]

Hogan can't fire Smith but the BOE can. Start protesting at their homes because they obviously don't listen to parent emails and phone calls. FIRE JACK! FIRE JACK! FIRE JACK!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland was yellow on this map up until a few days ago, now it's red. Outlook is not great:
https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

This site updated because in their own words on the site

July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.

As a data scientist who works with a team of folks who does visualization, it told the wrong story using a simple stoplight visualization focused on cases so glad they are fixing it.

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.

That's great. I really liked that site, but it just stopped being useful when everything was red all the time!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
How do you know what we’re doing with positive cases? We have a contact tracing operation that can handle 1000 cases a day, well above what we’re seeing. Yes we aren’t sealing people into their homes like in China, but we’re also not just sitting on our hands.

Because we are running out of testing capacity. It is taking people up to 5-7 days now to get test results back and since cases are exploding elsewhere, I don't see that improving any time soon.

You can't reopen a society and include schools, buses, etc. at the rate of spread we have, without rapid testing, and we don't have that and won't have that. 90% mask wearing will help some but mathematically it will not be enough.

You’re talking about different things.

No one has rapid tests. Yes it’s necessary, but I’m not aware of any country that has ACCURATE rapid tests.

As for contact tracing—aka dealing with outbreaks when they’re identified—yes we are doing that.

Wait, what? No one is able to get test results within 2-3 days? I'm not talking about stat testing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
No one has rapid tests. Yes it’s necessary, but I’m not aware of any country that has ACCURATE rapid tests.

As for contact tracing—aka dealing with outbreaks when they’re identified—yes we are doing that.

'm a teacher in a Maryland public school.

I came down with mild, questionable COVID symptoms on Friday. On Sunday I called for a test and was given and appointment time for the next day. On Monday I went to be tested. It is now Saturday and I do not have my results yet.

What would have happened at my school if it had been in session and I had been teaching there all last week? I still don't know if I have COVID. I could call my school and let them know they had a possible case there on Thursday and Friday, but they can't shut down or quarantine for a whole week while I wait for results. The system isn't going to work without fast results.

And that's assuming I do the right thing and am self isolating while waiting 7 days for my results. I feel FINE now and am so tempted to just go to the pool and go shopping. Without actually knowing you have COVID it is very unlikely people will isolate.

Without fast test results we aren't going to be able to keep our numbers low, especially once kids are back in college and in school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.

I'm glad it will include more weight on new cases per million per day as I think that is a key measure.
Percent positivity is important as well, because one way you can make it look like you don't have a lot of new cases is just not to be testing a lot. In which case your percent positivity will be higher.

But what is the difference between new cases per million per day and "case growth" which will be deemphasized?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.

But new cases per million per day is increasing. And Maryland is at 70 new cases per million per day. It's way too high. Germany is at 3.5 new cases per day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
No one has rapid tests. Yes it’s necessary, but I’m not aware of any country that has ACCURATE rapid tests.

As for contact tracing—aka dealing with outbreaks when they’re identified—yes we are doing that.

'm a teacher in a Maryland public school.

I came down with mild, questionable COVID symptoms on Friday. On Sunday I called for a test and was given and appointment time for the next day. On Monday I went to be tested. It is now Saturday and I do not have my results yet.

What would have happened at my school if it had been in session and I had been teaching there all last week? I still don't know if I have COVID. I could call my school and let them know they had a possible case there on Thursday and Friday, but they can't shut down or quarantine for a whole week while I wait for results. The system isn't going to work without fast results.

And that's assuming I do the right thing and am self isolating while waiting 7 days for my results. I feel FINE now and am so tempted to just go to the pool and go shopping. Without actually knowing you have COVID it is very unlikely people will isolate.

Without fast test results we aren't going to be able to keep our numbers low, especially once kids are back in college and in school.

You are tempted to go to the pool and shopping, but not so much to school. Got it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland was yellow on this map up until a few days ago, now it's red. Outlook is not great:
https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

This site updated because in their own words on the site

July 9 - Color Scale Will Be Updated
Unfortunately when a map becomes all "red", it becomes less useful. We will be making an update shortly that will adjust our color scale and how each state is graded. The shift will put more weight on "new cases per million" and "positivity". It will continue to include ILI, ICU availability, and testing throughput. It will deemphasize case growth.

As a data scientist who works with a team of folks who does visualization, it told the wrong story using a simple stoplight visualization focused on cases so glad they are fixing it.

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.

That's great. I really liked that site, but it just stopped being useful when everything was red all the time!

The site is also wrong on the MD data. For example, they code our positivity rate as 5.2% and increasing. Wrong. It’s 4.34% and decreasing.

I wouldn’t use that site. The people who run it clearly aren’t very careful about entering data correctly.