The list for where to apply in Common Lottery

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Me again ^^, to be clear, what I think you want to know is: for the most popular schools, the way the lottery works this year, does it mean that if you rank a super popular school anything less than #1 you are very possibly blowing your chance at that school?

The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.

Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.

One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.

Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.

Sorry. This is wrong. Emphasizes the need for a better explanation on the website.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.

Agreed, so support MV and CM request to expand tomorrow by the PCSB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.

Agreed, so support MV and CM request to expand tomorrow by the PCSB.

I can't make the meeting. But I know they are not voting until January. What is the best way to support between now and then?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.

Agreed, so support MV and CM request to expand tomorrow by the PCSB.

I can't make the meeting. But I know they are not voting until January. What is the best way to support between now and then?

Email [e-mail] from the Board website.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.

Agreed, so support MV and CM request to expand tomorrow by the PCSB.

I can't make the meeting. But I know they are not voting until January. What is the best way to support between now and then?

Email [e-mail] from the Board website.

Maybe contact for this deserves it's own listing? I bet many families would be willing to at least send an email to support the expansion of cm and mv!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Me again ^^, to be clear, what I think you want to know is: for the most popular schools, the way the lottery works this year, does it mean that if you rank a super popular school anything less than #1 you are very possibly blowing your chance at that school?

The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.

Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.

One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.

Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.

When I called, I specifically asked about this and they said emphatically that this is not the case. If they did this, they explained, people would have a real incentive to change their rankings to game the system. For example, if I really want to go to Two Rivers but know that without a sibling there, my chance for getting in even ranking it #1 are really slim, then I have an incentive to rank a less-popular school #1, or I will be less likely to get in there because I have ranked it lower (and #1 tankers are more likely to get in). So, under the system you outlined, I might put Bridges at #1 even though it is my #5 choice. They said one of the principles that guided setting up a system was ensuring that there is no incentive to strategically order your choices differently from your true preferences.

Ok, it sounds like a lot of people did call and were told differently than what I say above. So I totally acknowledge it sounds like ranking a school #1 doesn't have the impact I understood it to have. But what I don't understand, is if someone "gamed the system" as ou say above - putting their #5 choice at #1 because #5 is a less popular school and they have a better chance at getting in, isn't it more likely they'll get into their #1 slot (which had been their #5 choice) and then get dropped off the list of all the other schools? How is that "gaming the system"??? You would be in at your real #5 that you ranked #1, taken out of consideration for the other schools, and not allowed to re-apply in round 2 lottery (according to other posters here re: round 2). Why is that gaming the system? It's not like you snuck into a top popular school.

Also, to the person who said the ranking matters but not in the way I said, then how does it matter more this year, which is what everyone is saying is somehow true? Last year it worked that if you get into your #4, you stay on the waitlist for 1-3 and are off for anything you ranked lower than 4. What is different this year, if somehow ranking a school #1 doesn't give you a better chance at that school than someone who ranked it #2??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Curious about how the lottery will handle preference. Both DCPS and charters allow sibling preference but only DCPS offers IB vs. proximity vs OOB. What I find a little sad is that year after year new DC families spend so much energy on the lottery (as they should) when most new spots at desirable schools will be taken by siblings of current students. There simply aren't enough quality, long term spots.

Agreed, so support MV and CM request to expand tomorrow by the PCSB.

I know what CM is trying to do with expansion, but what's MV's proposal to expand? I thought they already had a charter that allowed them to expand? What do the want to do that isn't covered by its current charter?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Me again ^^, to be clear, what I think you want to know is: for the most popular schools, the way the lottery works this year, does it mean that if you rank a super popular school anything less than #1 you are very possibly blowing your chance at that school?

The reality still is that if 250 people rank it #1 and there are only 7 spots, the odds are still not in anyone's favor of getting in. BUT, if it's true (and I think it is) that in essence there are almost separate pools of applicants, i.e. everyone who ranked it #1, everyone who ranked it #2, etc, then if I am understanding what I was told, if you rank it #2 and 250 people applied, you don't have any chance of getting better than #251 on the waitlist so, in essence, you're really probably not getting in, because 250 people ahead of you wanted it so badly, they ranked it #1. In other words, odds that they'll work their way through that list and have 250 people say "no" before you, are non-existent.

Last year, we didn't get into any school just from lotteries, and we did do the DCPS lottery as well. But one of our best waitlist numbers was for a very good school that we ranked lower than #3 (because we were trying to use our 1-3 for more likely schools), which illustrates my point that as long as we didn't get into one of our 1st choices (and therefore dropped off the list for all schools we ranked lower), we had basically equal odds of getting a good lottery number for all the schools we didn't get into. NOT SO this year. We probably wouldn't have had a shot at that really good school we ranked lower, because enough people might have ranked it higher so we would have gotten a particularly crappy waitlist number.

One theory I do have about this year (this is just me guessing, whereas the above was based on an actual conversation with staff of this year's common lottery process), is that for the really good schools that are not quite the superstar, everyone's dying to get in schools, even if you don't rank that school 1 or 2, the odds might be much better that people who rank the "good but not most in demand" like 3 or 4 may have much better odds at getting into a really good school. But that's just a theory.

Call the common lottery tomorrow if you think the ranking only matters if you get into a school and dropped off the lower ranked lists. It is more important thank that this year.

When I called, I specifically asked about this and they said emphatically that this is not the case. If they did this, they explained, people would have a real incentive to change their rankings to game the system. For example, if I really want to go to Two Rivers but know that without a sibling there, my chance for getting in even ranking it #1 are really slim, then I have an incentive to rank a less-popular school #1, or I will be less likely to get in there because I have ranked it lower (and #1 tankers are more likely to get in). So, under the system you outlined, I might put Bridges at #1 even though it is my #5 choice. They said one of the principles that guided setting up a system was ensuring that there is no incentive to strategically order your choices differently from your true preferences.

Ok, it sounds like a lot of people did call and were told differently than what I say above. So I totally acknowledge it sounds like ranking a school #1 doesn't have the impact I understood it to have. But what I don't understand, is if someone "gamed the system" as ou say above - putting their #5 choice at #1 because #5 is a less popular school and they have a better chance at getting in, isn't it more likely they'll get into their #1 slot (which had been their #5 choice) and then get dropped off the list of all the other schools? How is that "gaming the system"??? You would be in at your real #5 that you ranked #1, taken out of consideration for the other schools, and not allowed to re-apply in round 2 lottery (according to other posters here re: round 2). Why is that gaming the system? It's not like you snuck into a top popular school.

Also, to the person who said the ranking matters but not in the way I said, then how does it matter more this year, which is what everyone is saying is somehow true? Last year it worked that if you get into your #4, you stay on the waitlist for 1-3 and are off for anything you ranked lower than 4. What is different this year, if somehow ranking a school #1 doesn't give you a better chance at that school than someone who ranked it #2??

Re-ranking your choices to take advantage of the lottery would not be gaming the system--it would be gaming your choices and needing to rework them strategically, which the Deputy Mayor's Office did not want to for people to do. They wanted people to truly list their preferences to match as many people to as high-ranked choice as possible. If people have an incentive not to list their true preferences, then that would be impossible.

In terms of how it is different from last year: last year, essentially every public school did an individual lottery of the people who applied through the DCPS lottery last year. The only way that order came Into play was if you got into a school--you remained on the waitlist only for schools you ranked as more desirable than the school you got into.

This year, the lottery algorithm is totally different. It is one giant lottery. It's more complicated than this in practice because sibling, founder, in-boundary, and proximity preference are in play for various schools, but to simplify it, essentially a lottery number comes up, and the computer sees whether there is room in your top ranked school. If not, they move to your second and so in until they find a match. They therefore maximize the number of people who get into a higher ranked choice because by definition you are getting into the highest ranked school that has room. Very different from last year, but still only an incentive to list them in your true preference order.

Hope this helps - good luck to all!

[Anonymous]

hi everyone! this new lottery system is so different and i am so confused. I need a little help. My daughter is going into kindergarten and i don't know which schools have the best programs or which are the best schools. I originally wanted to enroll in Mundo Verde but i don't think i like what their new location will be, p st nw. How is capitol city? is that a good school any suggestions?.

[Anonymous]

The algorithm is essentially the same.

You have your rankings of the schools (A) and your choices ranking of your student (B). There are two parts to the algorithm:

1) some given element A of the first matched set prefers some given element B of the second matched set over the element to which A is already matched, and
2) B also prefers A over the element to which B is already matched

It doesn't matter if it runs off the student or the schools, ultimately the match is stabilized when algorithm determines that it made the best possible match for both parties involved based on your rankings and the schools preferences (which is basically the school ranking you).

What's important is how you ranked the schools (you should be true in your rankings) and equally how the school ranked you (greater preference is given for IB, Siblings, etc). Now, does that mean you shouldn't rank a "no preference" school at #1? No, I don't think it does. First, you have the waitlist to consider. Second, you don't know hidden factors like how many others selected that school and how the school ranked them.

You also have the "randomness" to figure into this, and that's way to subjective to explain. There is no guessing how the algorithm handles "tie-scores" when it comes to preferences.

[Anonymous]

what is actually happening in the lottery this year that didn't happen last year besides:
1. 12 slots to pick
2. joint DCPS/charters

It seems like it works like it did last year functionally. The lottery happens for each school, and your child is waitlisted from top down until your child is given a seat, and then the choices below that fall away.

What has changed?

[Anonymous]

PP, in short, one lottery draw; so you get one lottery number which together with preferences (IB with Sib., IB, OOB with Sib. etc) determines your place in line for up to 12 DCPS and DCPCS schools.

[Anonymous]

sounds exactly like last year, with 12 and jointly. if anyone knows of an actual difference, let us know.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:sounds exactly like last year, with 12 and jointly. if anyone knows of an actual difference, let us know.

The only people that will know the difference would be the folks who ran it last year and the folks who are running it this year.

[Anonymous]

Yes, essentially the same as last year, only more schools are included. I talked to the folks running the lottery. Good luck, all.