US30Y pushing back to 5% yield

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a Deutsche Bank report just pointed out, Europe owns a lot of American debt and equities. Divesting those assets would push American borrowing costs on our 56 trillion in national debt even higher…

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/europe-owns-greenland--and-a-lot-of-us-treasuries-deutsche-bank-warns-4453684

European investors own around $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost double the holdings of the rest of the world combined, making the region America’s largest lender.

Europe literally owns us. That’s real power, and one they are increasingly willing to use. Mortgage rates were just starting to dip and threatened to give Trump his first real win of his presidency and boop - there they go up again.

I bought my first house in 1998 with a 7% rate. I bought my second house in 2005 with a 6.25% rate, both 30 yr. Current rates are 6.1%, 30 year. No one should be expecting lower rates to buy a house, now is the time. The days 3% are over. If rates do drop, refinance.

I bought my house in 2016 with a 3.5% rate, 30 years fixed--so I look at the current mortgage rates and am horrified and glad I bought when I did. We were thinking to sell this year and move, but with US bond markets weakening and mortgage rates rising, we probably will just rent out our house until mortgage rates come down again.

You will be waiting a long time for the 3’s again, that would require a 10 yr US treasury to go below 2%. As you said, the trend on rates (and the gross US debt) is up. And if it did happen, where do think housing prices go ?

True but my house is in a good location and makes a good rental and I’m fine to wait it out until rates drop again, if not to the 3’s, at least to the 4s.

I’m confused. Are you buying a new house now and plan to rent the current one ? If so, then you have to pay the current 6% rate unless paying cash. Or, Are you waiting till rates get to the 4s, and then buying, but renting the current house until rates hit the 3s to sell ? Your description sounds like you are renting either way. Curious about the strategy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a Deutsche Bank report just pointed out, Europe owns a lot of American debt and equities. Divesting those assets would push American borrowing costs on our 56 trillion in national debt even higher…

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/europe-owns-greenland--and-a-lot-of-us-treasuries-deutsche-bank-warns-4453684

European investors own around $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost double the holdings of the rest of the world combined, making the region America’s largest lender.

Europe literally owns us. That’s real power, and one they are increasingly willing to use. Mortgage rates were just starting to dip and threatened to give Trump his first real win of his presidency and boop - there they go up again.

I bought my first house in 1998 with a 7% rate. I bought my second house in 2005 with a 6.25% rate, both 30 yr. Current rates are 6.1%, 30 year. No one should be expecting lower rates to buy a house, now is the time. The days 3% are over. If rates do drop, refinance.

I bought my house in 2016 with a 3.5% rate, 30 years fixed--so I look at the current mortgage rates and am horrified and glad I bought when I did. We were thinking to sell this year and move, but with US bond markets weakening and mortgage rates rising, we probably will just rent out our house until mortgage rates come down again.

You will be waiting a long time for the 3’s again, that would require a 10 yr US treasury to go below 2%. As you said, the trend on rates (and the gross US debt) is up. And if it did happen, where do think housing prices go ?

True but my house is in a good location and makes a good rental and I’m fine to wait it out until rates drop again, if not to the 3’s, at least to the 4s.

I’m confused. Are you buying a new house now and plan to rent the current one ? If so, then you have to pay the current 6% rate unless paying cash. Or, Are you waiting till rates get to the 4s, and then buying, but renting the current house until rates hit the 3s to sell ? Your description sounds like you are renting either way. Curious about the strategy.

It’s not obligatory to buy a house wherever you move-especially in this interest rate environment. One can always rent in the new location. Mortgage rates were in the 3s/4s for a decade-it’s not unreasonable to expect that they might return when the Trump chaos ends.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a Deutsche Bank report just pointed out, Europe owns a lot of American debt and equities. Divesting those assets would push American borrowing costs on our 56 trillion in national debt even higher…

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/europe-owns-greenland--and-a-lot-of-us-treasuries-deutsche-bank-warns-4453684

European investors own around $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost double the holdings of the rest of the world combined, making the region America’s largest lender.

Europe literally owns us. That’s real power, and one they are increasingly willing to use. Mortgage rates were just starting to dip and threatened to give Trump his first real win of his presidency and boop - there they go up again.

I bought my first house in 1998 with a 7% rate. I bought my second house in 2005 with a 6.25% rate, both 30 yr. Current rates are 6.1%, 30 year. No one should be expecting lower rates to buy a house, now is the time. The days 3% are over. If rates do drop, refinance.

I bought my house in 2016 with a 3.5% rate, 30 years fixed--so I look at the current mortgage rates and am horrified and glad I bought when I did. We were thinking to sell this year and move, but with US bond markets weakening and mortgage rates rising, we probably will just rent out our house until mortgage rates come down again.

You will be waiting a long time for the 3’s again, that would require a 10 yr US treasury to go below 2%. As you said, the trend on rates (and the gross US debt) is up. And if it did happen, where do think housing prices go ?

True but my house is in a good location and makes a good rental and I’m fine to wait it out until rates drop again, if not to the 3’s, at least to the 4s.

I’m confused. Are you buying a new house now and plan to rent the current one ? If so, then you have to pay the current 6% rate unless paying cash. Or, Are you waiting till rates get to the 4s, and then buying, but renting the current house until rates hit the 3s to sell ? Your description sounds like you are renting either way. Curious about the strategy.

It’s not obligatory to buy a house wherever you move-especially in this interest rate environment. One can always rent in the new location. Mortgage rates were in the 3s/4s for a decade-it’s not unreasonable to expect that they might return when the Trump chaos ends.

Personally don't think they will because of the erosion of the USD as the reserve currency. One of the reasons rates were so low for so long. But who knows, life is strange.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a Deutsche Bank report just pointed out, Europe owns a lot of American debt and equities. Divesting those assets would push American borrowing costs on our 56 trillion in national debt even higher…

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/europe-owns-greenland--and-a-lot-of-us-treasuries-deutsche-bank-warns-4453684

European investors own around $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost double the holdings of the rest of the world combined, making the region America’s largest lender.

Europe literally owns us. That’s real power, and one they are increasingly willing to use. Mortgage rates were just starting to dip and threatened to give Trump his first real win of his presidency and boop - there they go up again.

I bought my first house in 1998 with a 7% rate. I bought my second house in 2005 with a 6.25% rate, both 30 yr. Current rates are 6.1%, 30 year. No one should be expecting lower rates to buy a house, now is the time. The days 3% are over. If rates do drop, refinance.

I bought my house in 2016 with a 3.5% rate, 30 years fixed--so I look at the current mortgage rates and am horrified and glad I bought when I did. We were thinking to sell this year and move, but with US bond markets weakening and mortgage rates rising, we probably will just rent out our house until mortgage rates come down again.

You will be waiting a long time for the 3’s again, that would require a 10 yr US treasury to go below 2%. As you said, the trend on rates (and the gross US debt) is up. And if it did happen, where do think housing prices go ?

True but my house is in a good location and makes a good rental and I’m fine to wait it out until rates drop again, if not to the 3’s, at least to the 4s.

I’m confused. Are you buying a new house now and plan to rent the current one ? If so, then you have to pay the current 6% rate unless paying cash. Or, Are you waiting till rates get to the 4s, and then buying, but renting the current house until rates hit the 3s to sell ? Your description sounds like you are renting either way. Curious about the strategy.

It’s not obligatory to buy a house wherever you move-especially in this interest rate environment. One can always rent in the new location. Mortgage rates were in the 3s/4s for a decade-it’s not unreasonable to expect that they might return when the Trump chaos ends.

Personally don't think they will because of the erosion of the USD as the reserve currency. One of the reasons rates were so low for so long. But who knows, life is strange.

True. It looks like the days of the dollar as the safe haven asset are coming to an end. I am also putting a chunk of my savings in a Euro account.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:As a Deutsche Bank report just pointed out, Europe owns a lot of American debt and equities. Divesting those assets would push American borrowing costs on our 56 trillion in national debt even higher…

https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/europe-owns-greenland--and-a-lot-of-us-treasuries-deutsche-bank-warns-4453684

European investors own around $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and equities, almost double the holdings of the rest of the world combined, making the region America’s largest lender.

Europe literally owns us. That’s real power, and one they are increasingly willing to use. Mortgage rates were just starting to dip and threatened to give Trump his first real win of his presidency and boop - there they go up again.

I bought my first house in 1998 with a 7% rate. I bought my second house in 2005 with a 6.25% rate, both 30 yr. Current rates are 6.1%, 30 year. No one should be expecting lower rates to buy a house, now is the time. The days 3% are over. If rates do drop, refinance.

I bought my house in 2016 with a 3.5% rate, 30 years fixed--so I look at the current mortgage rates and am horrified and glad I bought when I did. We were thinking to sell this year and move, but with US bond markets weakening and mortgage rates rising, we probably will just rent out our house until mortgage rates come down again.

You will be waiting a long time for the 3’s again, that would require a 10 yr US treasury to go below 2%. As you said, the trend on rates (and the gross US debt) is up. And if it did happen, where do think housing prices go ?

True but my house is in a good location and makes a good rental and I’m fine to wait it out until rates drop again, if not to the 3’s, at least to the 4s.

I’m confused. Are you buying a new house now and plan to rent the current one ? If so, then you have to pay the current 6% rate unless paying cash. Or, Are you waiting till rates get to the 4s, and then buying, but renting the current house until rates hit the 3s to sell ? Your description sounds like you are renting either way. Curious about the strategy.

It’s not obligatory to buy a house wherever you move-especially in this interest rate environment. One can always rent in the new location. Mortgage rates were in the 3s/4s for a decade-it’s not unreasonable to expect that they might return when the Trump chaos ends.

Ok, I get it , did not consider you would rent as well. I still don’t think you will see 4s for a really long time, but good luck with it.

[Anonymous]

Some form of crisis is almost inevitable’: The $38 trillion national debt will soon be growing faster than the U.S. economy itself, watchdog warns

https://fortune.com/2026/...could-hit/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Some form of crisis is almost inevitable’: The $38 trillion national debt will soon be growing faster than the U.S. economy itself, watchdog warns

https://fortune.com/2026/...could-hit/

My thesis is international stocks are likely to continue to outperform US stocks, as they did last year. The last time this happened was through 2000-2008, so the timing likely adds up.