Is the dc re market shifting?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.

Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.

People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.

Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q

Close in DMV didn’t drop that much, but the reality is that home prices have never dropped very much without a huge financial crisis combined with a recession.

People forget the S&L crisis in the late 1980s fueled a big real estate bubble in CA and TX (and somewhat in DC) which then burst and combined with the early 90s recession caused home prices to decline as well as many bank failures.

Same and of course worse with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

The only other examples are places like Youngstown, OH where the population declined by like 40% over a 50 year period.

Now, if you believe the nuts tariff and other policies will cause a financial crisis…you may be correct, though banks are very well capitalized these days.

There have never been mass government and contractor layoffs like the administration is threatening/enacting, so this is unpredicted. DC will likely be in a recession by late Spring according to Bloomberg and DC is forecasting that it will take 3-4 years to return to trend growth. I don’t know if that means that GDP and job numbers will climb back to peak 2025 numbers by 2029 or if it will take longer but it’s a pretty bleak forecast for region and the housing market.

https://www.dcfpi.org/all/dc-expected-to-lose-1-billion-in-revenue-through-the-financial-plan/#:~:text=Federal%20workforce%20reductions%20will%20have,disproportionately%20represented%2C%20such%20as%20retail.

That still doesn’t support a 20%-30% reduction in home prices across the board considering those jobs are spread across a wide area and also include people that aren’t even in the DMV but are counted as DC-based.

I will restate once more…the only time in history this has happened there was a financial crises that precipitated a recession (or of course the Great Depression) with risky lending and bank failures.

The area is huge, so while it’s bad for the area, it’s not devastating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thinking of selling our Fairfax County single family home and retirng. Est value about $1.6m in good school pyramid. Agents are bs artists so always says it’s a great time to sell or buy (at anytime) but for those of you currently selling, how’s it going?

DC and Farfax markets are quite different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.

Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.

People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.

Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q

Close in DMV didn’t drop that much, but the reality is that home prices have never dropped very much without a huge financial crisis combined with a recession.

People forget the S&L crisis in the late 1980s fueled a big real estate bubble in CA and TX (and somewhat in DC) which then burst and combined with the early 90s recession caused home prices to decline as well as many bank failures.

Same and of course worse with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

The only other examples are places like Youngstown, OH where the population declined by like 40% over a 50 year period.

Now, if you believe the nuts tariff and other policies will cause a financial crisis…you may be correct, though banks are very well capitalized these days.

There have never been mass government and contractor layoffs like the administration is threatening/enacting, so this is unpredicted. DC will likely be in a recession by late Spring according to Bloomberg and DC is forecasting that it will take 3-4 years to return to trend growth. I don’t know if that means that GDP and job numbers will climb back to peak 2025 numbers by 2029 or if it will take longer but it’s a pretty bleak forecast for region and the housing market.

https://www.dcfpi.org/all/dc-expected-to-lose-1-billion-in-revenue-through-the-financial-plan/#:~:text=Federal%20workforce%20reductions%20will%20have,disproportionately%20represented%2C%20such%20as%20retail.

That still doesn’t support a 20%-30% reduction in home prices across the board considering those jobs are spread across a wide area and also include people that aren’t even in the DMV but are counted as DC-based.

I will restate once more…the only time in history this has happened there was a financial crises that precipitated a recession (or of course the Great Depression) with risky lending and bank failures.

The area is huge, so while it’s bad for the area, it’s not devastating.

You’re delusional. Washington DC is a company town. Yes, there are some other large employers but by and large, the main business here is the government. Whether it is actual Fed employees, contractors, consultants etc, doesn’t matter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Checked a few Nova listings today, and was surprised to see one back on the market after being under contract for two weeks. Two others had dropped their prices by $50K.

Why are you surprised?! You all must be delusional. There are mass layoffs and job loss in the region. There is no way this doesn’t massively affect the housing market. It’s likely someone who was under contract either got spooked, lost their job, or might lose their job.

I feel bad for a lot of DMV residents because for years the story line was that this area is recession proof and real estate can only go up. Well now we are experiencing massive changes to the federal government and fewer government employees in the region.

Housing prices will likely drop 20-30% in the region.

People have been saying that on this board since it came into existence, and it's never happened. Never will happen, either.

Yes, it did -- from 2006 to 2009:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS47894Q

Close in DMV didn’t drop that much, but the reality is that home prices have never dropped very much without a huge financial crisis combined with a recession.

People forget the S&L crisis in the late 1980s fueled a big real estate bubble in CA and TX (and somewhat in DC) which then burst and combined with the early 90s recession caused home prices to decline as well as many bank failures.

Same and of course worse with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

The only other examples are places like Youngstown, OH where the population declined by like 40% over a 50 year period.

Now, if you believe the nuts tariff and other policies will cause a financial crisis…you may be correct, though banks are very well capitalized these days.

There have never been mass government and contractor layoffs like the administration is threatening/enacting, so this is unpredicted. DC will likely be in a recession by late Spring according to Bloomberg and DC is forecasting that it will take 3-4 years to return to trend growth. I don’t know if that means that GDP and job numbers will climb back to peak 2025 numbers by 2029 or if it will take longer but it’s a pretty bleak forecast for region and the housing market.

https://www.dcfpi.org/all/dc-expected-to-lose-1-billion-in-revenue-through-the-financial-plan/#:~:text=Federal%20workforce%20reductions%20will%20have,disproportionately%20represented%2C%20such%20as%20retail.

That still doesn’t support a 20%-30% reduction in home prices across the board considering those jobs are spread across a wide area and also include people that aren’t even in the DMV but are counted as DC-based.

I will restate once more…the only time in history this has happened there was a financial crises that precipitated a recession (or of course the Great Depression) with risky lending and bank failures.

The area is huge, so while it’s bad for the area, it’s not devastating.

You’re delusional. Washington DC is a company town. Yes, there are some other large employers but by and large, the main business here is the government. Whether it is actual Fed employees, contractors, consultants etc, doesn’t matter.

DMV has the sixth most Fortune 500 company HQs in the US and 3MM jobs.

You don’t see an abrupt real estate decline 30% if you don’t have a financial crisis…it has never happened anywhere.

I am not saying it won’t decline at all.

Places like Detroit and Youngstown saw declines over decades because jobs never returned and the population left.

[Anonymous]

DC’s population is nothing like the population of Detroit or Youngstown before housing busts there. Those towns were manufacturing towns (cars and steel). Here, we are a service town. There are more advanced degrees here than anywhere in the country and like it or not, and no matter what POTUS says, the economy is a service economy and employers want an educated workforce.

[Anonymous]

Not sure about the next couple years but I’m 100% confident there will be full economic restoration after the egomaniac, lunatic no longer in the WH. The markets would soar instantly if he was no longer here

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A friend sold their home in a week. Received four offers over asking. 22101

I owned a house in California in 2008. You would be astonished how quickly home values can collapse.

What's that same house worth today? More, I bet.

Almost 20 years later, after 48.5% of inflation? Sure.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not sure about the next couple years but I’m 100% confident there will be full economic restoration after the egomaniac, lunatic no longer in the WH. The markets would soar instantly if he was no longer here

I agree that the economy will recover, but I'm much less sure that the size of government (and all the federal contracts) will return to the levels under Biden. Some agencies will go on hiring sprees, but overall, government will remain smaller.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Not sure about the next couple years but I’m 100% confident there will be full economic restoration after the egomaniac, lunatic no longer in the WH. The markets would soar instantly if he was no longer here

I agree that the economy will recover, but I'm much less sure that the size of government (and all the federal contracts) will return to the levels under Biden. Some agencies will go on hiring sprees, but overall, government will remain smaller.

Not a trump fan by any means but the fed govt workforce was quite bloated so some careful trimming was/is necessary. I don’t agree it is being handled in a controlled manner.