Does no one consider how bad it’s going to get?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He is going to pull back on many of the tariffs by the end of the month if not sooner.

+1. It is all a negotiating ploy. It is how he lives his life. Hit hard and first, then retreat based on how the deal shakes out. He wants to rebalance the trade deficits.

If he actually plays it out a year, he can start reversing course in the fall just after the tax bill gets signed, the markets will come back and the republicans will claim victory right before the midterms.

Like the law firms, he'll probably just have Vietnam and Cambodia do ten bazillion hours of community service in exchange for lifting the tariffs. Like making our clothes and shoes on pittance wages isn't already service to America.

[Anonymous]

When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

China is not stupid enough to fall into the trap Trump has set for them. They actually care about their economy.

[Anonymous]

I guess everyone is cool with cheap things from counties that exploit their workers rather than making thing here and paying a fair wage. Got it. I thought they rich people were bad for doing that?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

It doesn't need to. China is winning by doing nothing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

China is not stupid enough to fall into the trap Trump has set for them. They actually care about their economy.

They are certainly behaving as though the expect to take Taiwan. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/01/china/china-taiwan-drills-live-fire-escalation-intl-hnk/index.html
I'd give a 60 percent chance that China will escalate Taiwan conflict sooner than later.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

It doesn't need to. China is winning by doing nothing.

Not really. Losing their biggest trading partner, especially during perilous times for their economy, could lead to disaster for them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trumps-global-tariffs-hurt-china-with-all-round-blockade-2025-04-03/

This will absolutely cause a recession for the US, maybe even a deep one. But if these tariffs on China continue China is in a world of hurt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I guess everyone is cool with cheap things from counties that exploit their workers rather than making thing here and paying a fair wage. Got it. I thought they rich people were bad for doing that?

It takes a long time to unwind decades of globalization. How long do you think it takes to re-build factories in the US? Longer than a 4 year election cycle. There will be a lot of pain in the interim.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:When does this global trade war with China become an outright war with them?

China is not stupid enough to fall into the trap Trump has set for them. They actually care about their economy.

They are certainly behaving as though the expect to take Taiwan. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/01/china/china-taiwan-drills-live-fire-escalation-intl-hnk/index.html
I'd give a 60 percent chance that China will escalate Taiwan conflict sooner than later.

I don’t.

The CCPs bargain with the population has always been “don’t cause trouble and we will support you.”

Sending millions of young men (only sons) off to die would cause significant social upheaval that could become a major threat to the legitimacy CCP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump's approval rates are tanking...particularly related to management of the economy, so yes, OP, it appears that someone else other than you is paying attention.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5230291-trump-approval-rating-dip-poll/

Are we still believing in ratings? Every Trump voter I know still thinks he’s doing a good job. I even got a “Look how old he is, he’s still working so hard at a job nobody wants, making the hard, unpopular decisions that no other President will do to right this country.” line from someone this week. I know it’s anecdata, but people I know are not souring on him.

"Trump voters" like that are fully in the cult. They own hats or flags, they attend rallies, they have a Punisher sticker with a Trump toupee on their truck. That's like 30%, they're unreachable, write them off and keep them away from your kids. But remember how shocking it was when he won the second time because it seemed like only those nuts liked him? Those quiet voters are whose movement the polls are tracking.

[Anonymous]

Do you all need to realize Chinese govt is run by really bright educated folks. It's not like here in the US. These people have degrees from top schools and have been around. They aren't fools. We got Trump leading the pack here. I'm going with China. They will hurt but they will figure out the best path possible. My faith is in China not in Trump unfortunately.

I think we are all headed for a world of hurt. It's only been a couple months people - there's a lot more chaos to come! It's not like this is all the damage he's gonna do..

Personally I'd get my money out and start diversifying. You all have way too much faith in Trump not ranking us all. Between idiot Congress and Dems and Ahole GOP, I'm not optimistic.

Interest rates will have to fall for sure to offset the pain. Life will go on of course. I don't think we'll fall into depression but chances high for recession. I think Trump will pull back some stuff but other countries they will be making alliances and we have pretty much set the stage for isolationism. The only silver lining is that we need others as much as they need us. It'll depend on this point to see how quickly we get out of this mess. I don't think the sky will fall but long term, this is a shift in climate and we are in a different season altogether moving forward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We just bought a house a couple of months ago. DH and I each took about 200k out of brokerage for down payment, intending to replace it when we sell our other house in July.

With all the talk of a dc market crash we wanted to sell asap. But now I’m thinking we might want to keep some money in real estate. We are renting it out, and it is inside the beltway and walking distance to the wfc metro with a 2.5 percent mortgage. So…might hold onto it instead of selling and investing?

I don’t know. I just don’t know.

Hold real estate with 2.5 mortgage how this can be even a question

[Anonymous]

China moves much faster than the US on building things. The US is extremely slow. China can build a 6 lane highway overnight - in Mclean, how many years has it taken them to fix Rt 7 and it's still not finished? 5?
People who don't regularly leave the US (or only go to Europe) don't see how quickly China can move.

Also, this is your regular reminder that this was exactly the same policies as before WW1 and WW2 - isolationism, America first, immigration bad, tariffs good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I guess everyone is cool with cheap things from counties that exploit their workers rather than making thing here and paying a fair wage. Got it. I thought they rich people were bad for doing that?

I guess some posters (you specifically) are cool with making dramatically simple-minded posts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I guess everyone is cool with cheap things from counties that exploit their workers rather than making thing here and paying a fair wage. Got it. I thought they rich people were bad for doing that?

Not at all. But what is a fair wage? I’m all for bringing back well-paying jobs but do you really think these manufacturing jobs are going to pay more than minimum wage, allow unions, offer good affordable healthcare plans, pension retirement plans - all the things that made them so desirable in the past. If so, wonderful. I’m highly doubtful as what we have now is that they already make a lot of profit and it goes to the ceo and shareholders, and not to the employees with any meaningful wage increase.

I’ll gladly buy only one 80$ white t shirt made in USA instead of seasonally replacing my fast fashion ones that are so abundant. My relatives who shop Walmart, old navy, that online Chinese realtor will be in for a surprise. But maybe not if they get one of these great manufacturing jobs which are going to pay so well!