Where is the price ceiling in N Arlington?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top end of N Arlington houses, esp in desirable areas like Lyon Village, is being pushed up by young families with big generational wealth, older individuals already with high net worth (this is the 4.2 mil LV house, owner admitted to overpaying to me but didn’t care because $$ don’t matter much), and also families with slightly older kids with parents in big law or comparable trying to keep up.

I think the first two are really raising the bar. For a big law family without much generation wealth, it will take many years to accrue the down payment and reach an income to move into a 3 mil plus house. Those with generational wealth or just older folks with lots of dough just move in. A lot of people are also still sitting with excess cash from the pandemic and big market gains.

The secondary effects are that more “modest” and less expensive new construction homes move up in price, old homes go up in price, and lots (impossible to get in the nice areas), go up as well.

Sigh…. It’s not worth it in N Arlington

I am genuinely confused by your last sentence. Things are worth what people will pay. It seems like it is worth it to a lot of people. Nobody will lose money on a house in Lyon Village if they hang on long enough. People love to complain about N Arlington and while it's not perfect, there is a lot to love about it.

[Anonymous]

There is none. It will keep going up, sorry. My parents bought in 1985 and they told me my mom said at closing to my dad "no one will ever pay a cent more for this tiny house than we just did!!" because it felt like so much. You can imagine how much they sold it for years later when they jumped to a bigger house.... that bigger house is now worth almost 2 mil. I felt the same way when I bought my house there. They told me this story. Now I've added on. Now it is worth a lot more. Who knows, climate change, worlds collapsing things will happen eventually but for now, it will likely keep going up as it always has.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top end of N Arlington houses, esp in desirable areas like Lyon Village, is being pushed up by young families with big generational wealth, older individuals already with high net worth (this is the 4.2 mil LV house, owner admitted to overpaying to me but didn’t care because $$ don’t matter much), and also families with slightly older kids with parents in big law or comparable trying to keep up.

I think the first two are really raising the bar. For a big law family without much generation wealth, it will take many years to accrue the down payment and reach an income to move into a 3 mil plus house. Those with generational wealth or just older folks with lots of dough just move in. A lot of people are also still sitting with excess cash from the pandemic and big market gains.

The secondary effects are that more “modest” and less expensive new construction homes move up in price, old homes go up in price, and lots (impossible to get in the nice areas), go up as well.

Sigh…. It’s not worth it in N Arlington

DP. I think in terms of big law it’s not so much needing many years to build up the down payment but wanting to see if you make partner or not.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Teardowns near downtown Bethesda were a minimum of $1.5 million a few years back, probably $2 million now. As long as the economy is roaring, this will continue. But if the economy heads south, it will stop.

What is the price ceiling in N. Arlington?

The highest I have seen is 4.2M in Lyon Village. I am sure there must be something higher in Country Club Hills because the lots are so big there. Anyone else know of higher?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2545-N-Ridgeview-Rd-22207/home/183424259

This is the highest house in the last 5 years.

This hasn’t sold yet, but list price is $4,975,000…right on Military Road.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3554-Military-Rd-Arlington-VA-22207/12060213_zpid/

I am not big on critiquing the aesthetics of houses but I have driven by this and it is truly one of the ugliest houses I have ever seen in Arlington. That being said, I hope they get every penny!

I would be shocked if they get that price. If I had 5 million dollars to spend on a house in 22207, I could have my pick of lots and still build something just as big as this—and not be right on Military Road!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Bringing it back to Arlington - it's not just N Arlington, either. Our realtor sent us a SFH in S Arlington that's coming soon (pics aren't in listing yet but the agent posted a video online) - house is 1400 sq feet, hasn't been renovated, and is asking $950K. Feels insane to me for S Arlington - worried this is the new normal??

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/209-S-Ivy-St-Arlington-VA-22204/12092834_zpid/

That’s a very nice and wealthy part of south Arlington. I believe it. There can be great views of DC.

+ 1 Arlington Heights/Penrose is adjacent enough to Route 50/orange line that is gets more of a premium than the very southern parts. This house is actually closer to Clarendon than my Westover house. The schools aren’t top rated, but they’re also not horrible (and a lot of people go private or parochial around there). Plus you’re not far from Montessori School if you want to try for an option. Also, being near the Thomas Jefferson Community Center is a perk (we spend a lot of time there for kid sports).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Yes, this is a big reason for choosing McLean. Neighborhoods are much prettier and schools are top tier.

Isn’t McLean HS dilapidated? My HS babysitter who goes there has told me how awful the bathrooms are.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Not for the location, and many people are starting to use private.

People are just paying to be around others who have money. The lots are small and you have other areas that are close in that cost less.

Such as?

If folks don't care about schools, 22044 is across 50. Also Lake Barcoft.

They don't care about schools, they want to live in what they think is a nice/safe neighborhood and they want to be close to work (which for many people is DC). Arlington has a nice park system, a lot of neighborhoods that people like, pretty solid retail and services, and excellent proximity to DC and 66W.

You really must not get out much because Rte 50 goes directly into downtown DC, without any tolls, and runs along Arlington 22201 and 22203.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Not for the location, and many people are starting to use private.

People are just paying to be around others who have money. The lots are small and you have other areas that are close in that cost less.

Such as?

If folks don't care about schools, 22044 is across 50. Also Lake Barcoft.

They don't care about schools, they want to live in what they think is a nice/safe neighborhood and they want to be close to work (which for many people is DC). Arlington has a nice park system, a lot of neighborhoods that people like, pretty solid retail and services, and excellent proximity to DC and 66W.

You really must not get out much because Rte 50 goes directly into downtown DC, without any tolls, and runs along Arlington 22201 and 22203.

That is an option! And some people like to hop over the chain bridge, do private school dropoff, and then head to work.

[Anonymous]

I dunno - I see a lot of big law people in my n Arlington neighborhood in 1.5-2m homes.

What they are doing is buying other homes at the beach, snowshoe, etc.
So they have maybe 5m in property- just not all in n Arlington.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:Teardowns near downtown Bethesda were a minimum of $1.5 million a few years back, probably $2 million now. As long as the economy is roaring, this will continue. But if the economy heads south, it will stop.

What is the price ceiling in N. Arlington?

The highest I have seen is 4.2M in Lyon Village. I am sure there must be something higher in Country Club Hills because the lots are so big there. Anyone else know of higher?

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2545-N-Ridgeview-Rd-22207/home/183424259

This is the highest house in the last 5 years.

If you look through the Arlington zip codes on realtor sites for prior house sales, you'll find higher.

That’s what I did.

You missed these homes:


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1813-N-Herndon-St-Arlington-VA-22201/12078571_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1111-19th-St-N-APT-2901-Arlington-VA-22209/82559290_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1881-N-Nash-St-UNIT-TS01-Arlington-VA-22209/94728764_zpid/

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1718-N-Harvard-St-Arlington-VA-22201/12078731_zpid/

Yep those 9000 and 10,000 SF homes in Lyon Village and the luxury penthouses in Rosslyn are top of the Arlington market. People pay to be near amenities. Thanks for posting, this was what I suspected but wasn't sure.

^9000 and 10,000 SF LOTS, not HOMES. Pardon the typo.

These days, builders extend the house until it almost covers the lot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Yes, this is a big reason for choosing McLean. Neighborhoods are much prettier and schools are top tier.

Isn’t McLean HS dilapidated? My HS babysitter who goes there has told me how awful the bathrooms are.

There's zero correlation between the quality of a school's facilities and student performance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top end of N Arlington houses, esp in desirable areas like Lyon Village, is being pushed up by young families with big generational wealth, older individuals already with high net worth (this is the 4.2 mil LV house, owner admitted to overpaying to me but didn’t care because $$ don’t matter much), and also families with slightly older kids with parents in big law or comparable trying to keep up.

I think the first two are really raising the bar. For a big law family without much generation wealth, it will take many years to accrue the down payment and reach an income to move into a 3 mil plus house. Those with generational wealth or just older folks with lots of dough just move in. A lot of people are also still sitting with excess cash from the pandemic and big market gains.

The secondary effects are that more “modest” and less expensive new construction homes move up in price, old homes go up in price, and lots (impossible to get in the nice areas), go up as well.

Sigh…. It’s not worth it in N Arlington

It’s worth to me. I like the quality of life here. I can walk to 80%+ of my weekly errands and I don’t feel bored by my daily interactions. That’s worth whatever I need to pay for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's not an exact equation or anything but I'd say the price ceiling of the upper-middle class areas is basically always going to be what two pay ceilinged feds with a big down payment from their last house (say, 30%-40%) can comfortably afford.

Feds are not buying these houses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Yes, this is a big reason for choosing McLean. Neighborhoods are much prettier and schools are top tier.

Isn’t McLean HS dilapidated? My HS babysitter who goes there has told me how awful the bathrooms are.

Its not about the structure

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Arlington is overpriced given the quality of the schools.

Yes, this is a big reason for choosing McLean. Neighborhoods are much prettier and schools are top tier.

I truly don’t get this mindset. Who do you think goes to private schools? Rich children whose parents live mostly in McLean and North Arlington. The main value of the school is being good enough to not tank your property value. For your average white kid is the quality of education really substantially different between McLean high and Yorktown? Although I do think FCPS pays better which could make a difference