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It is if you assume a 3% WR. But at 4% it is $320K. You currently seem to spend about 180K after taxes. You will also see payroll taxes disappear in retirement. You are setting the bar very high for yourself and being a rude in tone.
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Figure out your expenses, say $100K/year. Assume it grows by 3% per year (or a % you are happy with). By the time you want to retire (say 55,60), that number would be about $134K (at 3%). Assuming a 3% withdrawal rate, you'd need about $4.5M ($3.4M if you assume a 4% withdrawal rate). Best to model this in a spreadsheet and factor in one-time/short-duration expenses as well (college, remodels, cars, etc.) to see how the balances change over your lifetime. Once you get to 62/65/67 and SS/medicare kicks in, your withdrawal rate would be lower. |
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I recently plugged our info into an online subscription planning tool. It has a good UI and seeing the income, taxes etc. in the future was eye opening.
Seeing some of these figures of $4M, $5M and above in this thread at pre-retirement ages makes me wonder if these folks know what their RMD's will be at age 75 on their tax deferred accounts. |
If you have $5M + i would hope your brokerage account is a larger asset than your IRAs/401(k)s. Being 401(k) rich is a blessing and curse. |
If you're making $350k and paying taxes and saving a lot, then you're probably spending $150-$200k now. $8m at a conservative 3% rate - and assuming no mortgage payments - still allows you to spend more in retirement than you do now, which makes sense only if you want to travel a huge amount. |
I don't understand. If you can make 5% yearly return on investment at low risk why wouldn't you? 5% of 4m investment is 200K, what is this 3% withdrawal rate BS? Do you have to let go of a concept that money can make money because you are retiring? You can live off your 5% and not touch the principal, which you can dig into for catastrophic things and leave the rest to your kids. Investments should keep up with the rate of inflation too, sure it's more work especially if different investment vehicles are used. If you did this while working ft job and raising kids before retirement why can't you do this after? |
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You're not making a safe 5% return. You are making 5% minus some level of income tax at those numbers. So you really need approx an 8% return to have 5% to spend. |
+1. While I don't agree with you that you can get a 5% 'safe' return, most of these people are planning for a scenario where their nest egg will continue to grow even in retirement and not fully depleted at EOL. I think a 4% w/d assumes you won't run out of money 95% of the time. Of course, if you are able to catch the bond market at the bottom (highest possible yield), you could get that 5%+. A friend of mine literally locked down a 5.1% yield on 30-yr bond late last year on a big chunk of change. Unless rates rip higher, he's all set to receive that income for the rest of his life with potential for capital appreciation if rates trend a lot lower. |
| I don't know much about investment, but someone explain why do we always assume rate of return that area a bit too optimistic?Namely, is it impossible for example that return of 2% could the norm "one day"? |
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Financial advisors say $4.3M for us to retire extremely safely around 47-49 years old, live on $160K ish (in today's dollars) and be very good until 95, with a substantial amount left.
My math says more like $3.5M since we don't have any college to fund, don't want to leave much behind, and don't have any family member that lived past 85. They agreed that is probably fine, but they are cautious. We've always spent a lot less than we earn so $160K to live on, adjust up over time for inflation, would be plenty. Their calculation also doesn't include any SS. I'm 40, so I think not including anything at all is overly cautious (but better than being reckless). |
That's dumb. There are several good ways to get at the 401k money before 59.5. If retiring "well before 59.5" indicates you value time over having a bigger nest egg, yoy absolutely should be counting your 401ks. |
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Unsure what our # is because right now at 36 years old and 2 kids in activities, camps, orthodontics, tutors, etc etc it feels like $$$ flys out the door and it seems like there will never be enough.
We are just about 450k HHI. I can’t even imagine what will be enough. |
that"s your argument to the "need" to make/save EXTRA FOUR MILLION DOLLARS? How easy is it to retire with 8 mil vs. 4 mil? How easy is it to accumulate extra 4 mil as opposed to figuring out how to invest to get a return to give you clean 5%? IDK, maybe for you it's easy, but from the description of your lifestyle it doesn't sound like you are earning 7 figures or at least high 6 figures or are skilled at investing if you find it intimidating to get clean 5% return. None of this makes logical sense unless all of you are obsessing more about leaving millions to your kids and/or really up scaling and living large in retirement and are willing to work extra decade to enjoy luxury in your frailty you didn't even enjoy in your income earning years Of course you all love your jobs and working full time. |
160K per year before tax is likely to be about 10K/month net. IMO it's pretty tight in a high COL area even if your housing is paid off because you also will incur high health insurance expenses before you reach 65. Our modest home has constant tax hikes due to prices rising, we are paying 2x of what we paid when we bought. Any dwelling would be about 2-3K overhead costs (RE tax, insurance, utilities, repairs/maintenance, outsourcing of things you cannot do yourself), this goes for condos/TH too which have fees. Add health insurance and you are likely already spending 5K just to live without even eating or buying any necessities, which will be another 2K if you are thrifty. If you want to buy any big ticket items, like upgrade your furniture, car, remodel you need to dig into your savings. If you want to travel and do some dining/entertainment that's easily 2-3K a month for nothing extravagant at all. There goes your 10K. Not a terrible retirement, obviously, but it's not really free of financial strain in case of big ticket spend. It's a life where you will have to decide between taking that vacation or fixing your house, or buying a new car because yours broke down and foregoing all travel that year including seeing family airplane trip away. |