Mortgage rates are set to stay elevated

[Anonymous]

house prices are were they are supposed to be, we fast forwarded prices by about 10 years by printing so much money, this is the new normal. We can't simply take the money out of the economy to bring prices down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:house prices are were they are supposed to be, we fast forwarded prices by about 10 years by printing so much money, this is the new normal. We can't simply take the money out of the economy to bring prices down.

Nationally and in quite a few areas (Phoenix, Dallas, Austin, Vegas, Miami, etc) the prices rose significantly (and extremely fast) between 2020 and 2023 (like up to 100%) which is ridiculous but yeah appreciation was fast forwarded.

That being said, certain other markets were not that bad. For example, the Dmv area (I have mainly looked at DC and Arlington) the appreciation did not seem that extreme (something like 20%) which is actually I line with inflation (so you could argue in real terms, there was not much appreciation I'm Dmv). But of course would appreciate other people's views on this who know the data and methodology better for Dmv. I am basing my argument Fred all transaction price index. For example for 2019 the index is 271 while for 2022 it is 311 (2023 not out yet). Based on that, in that time span my calculation says around 15% appreciation in Arlington.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:house prices are were they are supposed to be, we fast forwarded prices by about 10 years by printing so much money, this is the new normal. We can't simply take the money out of the economy to bring prices down.

Nationally and in quite a few areas (Phoenix, Dallas, Austin, Vegas, Miami, etc) the prices rose significantly (and extremely fast) between 2020 and 2023 (like up to 100%) which is ridiculous but yeah appreciation was fast forwarded.

That being said, certain other markets were not that bad. For example, the Dmv area (I have mainly looked at DC and Arlington) the appreciation did not seem that extreme (something like 20%) which is actually I line with inflation (so you could argue in real terms, there was not much appreciation I'm Dmv). But of course would appreciate other people's views on this who know the data and methodology better for Dmv. I am basing my argument Fred all transaction price index. For example for 2019 the index is 271 while for 2022 it is 311 (2023 not out yet). Based on that, in that time span my calculation says around 15% appreciation in Arlington.

Actually nvm case Schiller for DC (which has monthly data) suggests that the increase was more like 32% (Jan 2020=238, September 2023=315 meaning 32% increase is my math is right). The BLS Cpi calculator for that same span returns 19% inflation so in real terms 13% appreciation.

Still much more reasonable prices increases though (relatively speaking) compared to much of the US.

[Anonymous]

We would love to move and are willing to give up our 2.75 rate to do it -- we are crowded in our starter home and it's worth it to us to get more space even if it's more expensive than we'd like. But no one in our target neighborhoods is selling.

[Anonymous]

rates will come down, they are too high for mortgages and should stay under 5%, they are way out of wack temporarily and the feds' increases are not working to stem inflation enough and will just have to live with 3-4%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Elevated? These aren’t elevated. We just returned to normal.

its higher than its been for 20 years but yes -- over 20 years ago it was considered "normal"

And dramatically lower than 40 years ago.

The last 20 years have been an economic anomaly in so many ways. It was an outlier in the history of mortgage rates.

It could also be that the post-war to oil shock period was the anomaly. With population growth slowing, economic growth will slow over the long term and rates will drop. That means nothing to buyers in the next few years, but in a decadal sense it does.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People buying homes with 2023 mortgage rates at 2021 prices are nuts. This can't be sustainable, can it?

There is no indication that people can’t make the payments.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:rates will come down, they are too high for mortgages and should stay under 5%, they are way out of wack temporarily and the feds' increases are not working to stem inflation enough and will just have to live with 3-4%

Umm...if what The Fed did/is doing aint working to achieve what it was designed for, they will keep doing it until it does work.

Ignorance is bliss...isn't always helpful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People buying homes with 2023 mortgage rates at 2021 prices are nuts. This can't be sustainable, can it?

There is no indication that people can’t make the payments.

Really? The fact that home sales and affordability are the lowest going back to...oh..two or three decades, doesn't tell you anything??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People buying homes with 2023 mortgage rates at 2021 prices are nuts. This can't be sustainable, can it?

There is no indication that people can’t make the payments.

Really? The fact that home sales and affordability are the lowest going back to...oh..two or three decades, doesn't tell you anything??

NP - but it tells me I can't afford to buy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No one is talking about the people locked into 2.75% rates are *never* going to sell their homes.

Not true. I have a couple of friends divorcing who have a low rate like that. They are selling in the spring.