Do you think the S&P 500 will continue trending up in a straight line?

[Anonymous]

If you look at charts of the S&P 500 covering the last several years, it's pretty much a straight line, except for short-term losses and recoveries. Do you think this trend will continue?

[Anonymous]

I've been waiting and waiting for a dip to go back in. There hasn't been a dip in years, so I went ahead the other day and got back in. Now there'll be a dip, I'm sure.

[Anonymous]

Ha. You are both fools if you think stocks will keep going up. That's not how they work. The trend will continue until the day the trend ends - then you will lose half your money.

If you are not in stocks for the long haul, you should not be in at all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been waiting and waiting for a dip to go back in. There hasn't been a dip in years, so I went ahead the other day and got back in. Now there'll be a dip, I'm sure.

I'm with you. I bought stock the day before the flash crash in 2010 when the market dove

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Ha. You are both fools if you think stocks will keep going up. That's not how they work. The trend will continue until the day the trend ends - then you will lose half your money.

If you are not in stocks for the long haul, you should not be in at all.

OP here. I'm in for the long haul. It may fall by half, but it will eventually double from where it is today, right?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ha. You are both fools if you think stocks will keep going up. That's not how they work. The trend will continue until the day the trend ends - then you will lose half your money.

If you are not in stocks for the long haul, you should not be in at all.

OP here. I'm in for the long haul. It may fall by half, but it will eventually double from where it is today, right?

I have the same question. I'm in it for the longhaul too - but I don't feel at all confident that the market will hold up over the long term!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The market is the depository of printed money . The fed is locked into low rates until something catastrophic occurs. The whole thing is a mess . Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen but the long term is going to be really bad.

There really is no increase in actual printed money in circulation. There's just an increase in depositary credits sitting on the balance sheets of American banking institutions, as we've bought all the T-bills they'd otherwise hold. The reason stocks are up isn't because there's an increase in funds flooding into investments, it's because the market's current perception of the long-term risk free rate of return is very low and so people are willing to value stocks at a level that reflects those expectations.

It will only end really badly if the Fed unleashes inflation that it can't control, which seems unlikely to me. If anything, deflation seems like a more legitimate risk IMO.

[Anonymous]

Obviously, the S&P will not go up forever. A correction is part of the normal business cycle, and IMHO, currently overdue.

However, over time (30 years), I believe the market will produce historically consistent returns of 6%-7% annually. So yes, in time, it will double again. But probably not as quickly as it doubled this last time.

Unless we bring back the GOP, trash the economy again, and then elect another Democrat to repair the damage. That's when you want to be all in.

[Anonymous]

Definitely. I just looked in my magic ball and know this to be true.

[Anonymous]

I took out about 80% and put it in safer investments earlier this year b/c I believe it is due of a correction.

I am comfortable not getting this years returns.

My portfolio has finally recovered to pre 2008 and I am comfirtabl with this decision.

[Anonymous]

it will probably dip sometime between now and 2016, similar to what we saw in 2008-2009. There is always a correction every 7-8 years at some point: 1991, 2001, 2009 and we're due for one.

Now am I concerned? No, because I'm in my 40s and I have years til retirement. All my invested money is in retirement funds, and since I auto-purchase, it only means I'm buying more shares when the price goes down, and I haven't actually realized any losses when these blips occur, because I haven't sold anything.

If you are trying to time the market, you are not going to get it right unless it's through some extreme amount of luck or insider knowledge, so stop trying. Also your investments shouldn't be set up that way, i.e you shouldn't have any money you NEED most of in the next 5 years in the stock market.

[Anonymous]

I think anyone asking this question should read more about investing before you make any decisions about investing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've been waiting and waiting for a dip to go back in. There hasn't been a dip in years, so I went ahead the other day and got back in. Now there'll be a dip, I'm sure.

At these levels it seems that dollar cost averaging would be a better way to get back in.

[Anonymous]

timing the market (or, i should say trying in vain to time the market) is a fool's errand

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:it will probably dip sometime between now and 2016, similar to what we saw in 2008-2009. There is always a correction every 7-8 years at some point: 1991, 2001, 2009 and we're due for one.

Now am I concerned? No, because I'm in my 40s and I have years til retirement. All my invested money is in retirement funds, and since I auto-purchase, it only means I'm buying more shares when the price goes down, and I haven't actually realized any losses when these blips occur, because I haven't sold anything.

If you are trying to time the market, you are not going to get it right unless it's through some extreme amount of luck or insider knowledge, so stop trying. Also your investments shouldn't be set up that way, i.e you shouldn't have any money you NEED most of in the next 5 years in the stock market.

but there is a difference between timing the market and looking at fundamentals and saying that it is overvalued.