The prospect of kids not going back to school until 2021

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

No it didn't. It was always "two weeks away" or "next week" but it never actually happened the way they predicted.

You know the saying, "Models aren't predictions"? That saying exists because models aren't predictions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With the whole state about to be in phase 2 and moco starting phase 1 and we are only at the end of May I would say there is going to be no leg to stand on to keep schools closed if the downward trend/stability continue.

The phases are not set up to last months-they are set up to last 2 weeks at a time so we are more than on track to be in the final stage by the time school is supposed to be starting.

They can't keep schools closed without justification. And if the numbers show clear data it is what it is.

1. It is mathematically certain, 100%, that there will be a surge in cases and deaths when people reduce physical distancing.
2. Warm temperatures and humidity don't have as much dampening effect on the virus as once proposed.

Given those two points, and the fact that we are opening up, we will start to see a surge one month from now, and restrictions on movements and activities in 3 months, just in time for the beginning of the school year. I hope MD will closely monitor summer camps as testing grounds for school openings.

Both your points are completely wrong.

[Anonymous]

I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

I think that the point is that we don't need to shut down all of MCPS just because the art teacher at Stone Mill ES (or wherever) tested positive for coronavirus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

I think that the point is that we don't need to shut down all of MCPS just because the art teacher at Stone Mill ES (or wherever) tested positive for coronavirus.

No, but you do need to shut that school down until everyone else is tested after a reasonable window (current estimates are about 5 days from exposure to infection). And what if a parent in a school tests positive? That child will have to stay home, too.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

I think that the point is that we don't need to shut down all of MCPS just because the art teacher at Stone Mill ES (or wherever) tested positive for coronavirus.

No, but you do need to shut that school down until everyone else is tested after a reasonable window (current estimates are about 5 days from exposure to infection). And what if a parent in a school tests positive? That child will have to stay home, too.

That's still better than the alternative. So it shuts down for 5 days and then everyone who attends/works at the particular school gets tested.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

I think that the point is that we don't need to shut down all of MCPS just because the art teacher at Stone Mill ES (or wherever) tested positive for coronavirus.

No, but you do need to shut that school down until everyone else is tested after a reasonable window (current estimates are about 5 days from exposure to infection). And what if a parent in a school tests positive? That child will have to stay home, too.

DP, and fine, but again, you still don’t need to shut down the entire school system because of incidents like that. It’s literally not tenable for kids to be out of school until there’s a vaccine.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be happier if S Korea didn't shut schools back down...

S Korea shut down the schools even though they know their new outbreak originated elsewhere... I wonder if shutting the schools was truly necessary to control it.

If we are contact tracing and isolating people who have been exposed then there will be shutdowns in schools and businesses for the foreseeable future. What are you going to do if the art teacher, who works with 250 kids, is positive? What about the administrative secretary in an office?

I think that the point is that we don't need to shut down all of MCPS just because the art teacher at Stone Mill ES (or wherever) tested positive for coronavirus.

No, but you do need to shut that school down until everyone else is tested after a reasonable window (current estimates are about 5 days from exposure to infection). And what if a parent in a school tests positive? That child will have to stay home, too.

MCPS has 206 schools.

[Anonymous]

If we had testing so we knew who was sick and who was immune (because of previous exposure), everyone would feel better, even without a vaccine.

[Anonymous]

There is not enough testing to make teachers and students feel safe

[Anonymous]

Folks, look at MoCo and Maryland curves. Things (hospitalization rates, mortality rates, test positivity rates) are coming down very nicely since almost the beginning of May. And we still have 3 more months until school starts. At this rate, we'll be in very good shape then. Not feeling safe would be a lame excuse in my opinion. You still go shopping I'm sure. In fact I would like Maryland to open schools a few weeks early to make up some of the huge lost instruction time, the way some other states consider soing.

[Anonymous]

consider doing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Folks, look at MoCo and Maryland curves. Things (hospitalization rates, mortality rates, test positivity rates) are coming down very nicely since almost the beginning of May. And we still have 3 more months until school starts. At this rate, we'll be in very good shape then. Not feeling safe would be a lame excuse in my opinion. You still go shopping I'm sure. In fact I would like Maryland to open schools a few weeks early to make up some of the huge lost instruction time, the way some other states consider soing.

The assumption here is that the curve is going down, therefore it will continue to go down. Which it might. Or it might not.

I think that schools must open, but I also think that we shouldn't fool ourselves about the accuracy of our crystal balls. The first day of school is still over 90 days away.