Is there going to be panic selling?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Vance is selling his Del Ray home. Relocating within the DMV or fleeing is the question.

He famously relocated six weeks ago. Which listing is it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9-E-Del-Ray-Ave-Alexandria-VA-22301/192127441_zpid/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been looking on line and Rehoboth is getting a lot of new listings piling up.

I guess with RTO, high mortgage rates on second homes, possible Govt lay-offs the beach house or condo is first to go.

For fun I looked at Slaughter Beach, Ocean City and Fenwick Island too and a lot of homes for sale purchased in that Spring 2020 to Spring 2023 era of 100 percent WFH era and when rates lower.

Of course all listed 100k to 300K higher than just 2-4 years ago.

We shall see. I think that market will crack before DMV.

Anecdotally, you see that all over the place.

If you look at the top markets with huge increases in inventory and price declines, most are in Florida and it's tons of listings from people that purchased in 2020/2021.

The sell off of real estate in Florida is completely different than other parts of the country. People are selling because of climate change and having to recover from major flood damage three times in five years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been looking on line and Rehoboth is getting a lot of new listings piling up.

I guess with RTO, high mortgage rates on second homes, possible Govt lay-offs the beach house or condo is first to go.

For fun I looked at Slaughter Beach, Ocean City and Fenwick Island too and a lot of homes for sale purchased in that Spring 2020 to Spring 2023 era of 100 percent WFH era and when rates lower.

Of course all listed 100k to 300K higher than just 2-4 years ago.

We shall see. I think that market will crack before DMV.

Anecdotally, you see that all over the place.

If you look at the top markets with huge increases in inventory and price declines, most are in Florida and it's tons of listings from people that purchased in 2020/2021.

The sell off of real estate in Florida is completely different than other parts of the country. People are selling because of climate change and having to recover from major flood damage three times in five years.

Completely agree with this assessment. FL’s market may also be resetting after inflating during the pandemic. People may be feeling the impacts of higher insurance prices and want to lock in gains before the market drops more if they want to move post pandemic. And this is in addition to storms and other impacts from climate change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I assume most Fed and consultants/contractors in the DMV bought their homes ages ago. So I assume a lot of these people have reasonable mortgages and will.priabblu be okay if laid off.

The folks who recently bought at 6% and higher and with inflated home prices of course will have a hard time keeping their homes if laid off.

I hope this is true. There have been very few sales in my area since 2022. People in my immediate neighborhood have overwhelmingly been in their houses for many years and are likely to stay put. Many are even retired and not moving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have been looking on line and Rehoboth is getting a lot of new listings piling up.

I guess with RTO, high mortgage rates on second homes, possible Govt lay-offs the beach house or condo is first to go.

For fun I looked at Slaughter Beach, Ocean City and Fenwick Island too and a lot of homes for sale purchased in that Spring 2020 to Spring 2023 era of 100 percent WFH era and when rates lower.

Of course all listed 100k to 300K higher than just 2-4 years ago.

We shall see. I think that market will crack before DMV.

Anecdotally, you see that all over the place.

If you look at the top markets with huge increases in inventory and price declines, most are in Florida and it's tons of listings from people that purchased in 2020/2021.

The sell off of real estate in Florida is completely different than other parts of the country. People are selling because of climate change and having to recover from major flood damage three times in five years.

And the explosive cost of property insurance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There is a huge shortage of housing. People in DC often live in the in huge houses in the surburbs with room for tenants. So why sell.

My basement is sitting empty. It is 2,000 square feet with two bedrooms and a bathroom. No kitchen.

If broke I could put a cheap fridge in, microwave/convection oven combo and two burner electic stove top. Find some govt workers who live even further out and rent it for like $2,600 a month. Maybe 4 guys or ladies who are hybrid can rent it out if each only needs it three nights a week. I am right by NIH in Bethesda.

I would go down to one car. Even though I own my cars. I have to insure and maintain them all.

Cancel every subscription.

if necessary I move in to a tiny basement place and rent out my whole house.

Rent out to who? If people are fleeing the area en masse due to complete lack of jobs nobody is going to be renting from you and you will be competing with professional rental units that will be dropping their prices. Unless you have artificial rental market like being located next to the private company office that still has full staff and isn't experiencing layoffs (maybe Amazon or Capital One) or a major university you are competing with everyone else doing the same thing, not to mention people renting out their entire homes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can’t imagine having this man for a neighbor. But on topic, I think people will cling to their 2-3% mortgages with everything they have. Some people who overextended in the past couple years with crazy rates and crazy prices might walk away but most people have tons of equity and low rates.

+1

Idk. I know someone right now who has a 2% mortgage and he told me this weekend if he loses his job they will most likely have to sell later this year.

Yes, having a low rate doesn't mean you have passive income you can live on (pensions, investment income, etc). You still have to earn income to pay your living expense (whatever low mortgage or even without mortgage life is expensive). Most people cannot afford to stay unemployed for over 1 year, they have to work to eat. Of course, people are going to be moving to where the jobs are if they can't find them here or cannot find a remote gig. If jobs don't come to this area and there is no influx of private capital to make up for all the lost government or adjacent jobs then it will be a sizeable departure of people from the area at least in the short term.

Maybe all the golden visa millionaires will come here to prop up local economy? Could be, due to how foreigner friendly this town is. For now, nobody knows, all I hear now is people getting laid off, not getting hired. But I am not in anything government adjacent, so may not have all the info.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I know a few Feds in 40s and 1 50+ who have found new jobs. I think it will be ok. Many will want to move closer in if homes do become available.

Great to hear! Probably the only positive news I heard in a long time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is a huge shortage of housing. People in DC often live in the in huge houses in the surburbs with room for tenants. So why sell.

My basement is sitting empty. It is 2,000 square feet with two bedrooms and a bathroom. No kitchen.

If broke I could put a cheap fridge in, microwave/convection oven combo and two burner electic stove top. Find some govt workers who live even further out and rent it for like $2,600 a month. Maybe 4 guys or ladies who are hybrid can rent it out if each only needs it three nights a week. I am right by NIH in Bethesda.

I would go down to one car. Even though I own my cars. I have to insure and maintain them all.

Cancel every subscription.

if necessary I move in to a tiny basement place and rent out my whole house.

Rent out to who? If people are fleeing the area en masse due to complete lack of jobs nobody is going to be renting from you and you will be competing with professional rental units that will be dropping their prices. Unless you have artificial rental market like being located next to the private company office that still has full staff and isn't experiencing layoffs (maybe Amazon or Capital One) or a major university you are competing with everyone else doing the same thing, not to mention people renting out their entire homes.

In the Real Estate crash of 2009 in Vegas and Florida where people out of work and losing homes rental demand went way up in particular cheaper units. People lost their homes. They cant rent it out if they dont own it. To be honest only 2-3 people on my block work. Most are retired or wealthy. Or the house is a tiny percentage of net worth

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Vance’s house is listed, not a mystery. He’s in public housing now.

Yes, but if he wanted to hold it he could.

[Anonymous]

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/dc-housing-market-remains-stable-no-crash-sight-experts-say

Sfh are stable and there isn't much inventory. Condos are decreasing a bit in price. There is not much change in the DC real estate market from last year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Vance’s house is listed, not a mystery. He’s in public housing now.

Yes, but if he wanted to hold it he could.

Is this priced to get multiples? Because he’s taking a loss if it’s not.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is a huge shortage of housing. People in DC often live in the in huge houses in the surburbs with room for tenants. So why sell.

My basement is sitting empty. It is 2,000 square feet with two bedrooms and a bathroom. No kitchen.

If broke I could put a cheap fridge in, microwave/convection oven combo and two burner electic stove top. Find some govt workers who live even further out and rent it for like $2,600 a month. Maybe 4 guys or ladies who are hybrid can rent it out if each only needs it three nights a week. I am right by NIH in Bethesda.

I would go down to one car. Even though I own my cars. I have to insure and maintain them all.

Cancel every subscription.

if necessary I move in to a tiny basement place and rent out my whole house.

Rent out to who? If people are fleeing the area en masse due to complete lack of jobs nobody is going to be renting from you and you will be competing with professional rental units that will be dropping their prices. Unless you have artificial rental market like being located next to the private company office that still has full staff and isn't experiencing layoffs (maybe Amazon or Capital One) or a major university you are competing with everyone else doing the same thing, not to mention people renting out their entire homes.

In the Real Estate crash of 2009 in Vegas and Florida where people out of work and losing homes rental demand went way up in particular cheaper units. People lost their homes. They cant rent it out if they dont own it. To be honest only 2-3 people on my block work. Most are retired or wealthy. Or the house is a tiny percentage of net worth

RE crash is very different than employment crash. People who lost their homes to foreclosure still kept their jobs and remained in the area, they just needed to find the place to live they could afford. But we are talking about massive number of jobs departing the area altogether, which means people losing their jobs and having to move to where the jobs are if no jobs are created here. Even if you give them free rent they can't afford to live here because they have to eat and pay for healthcare.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There is a huge shortage of housing. People in DC often live in the in huge houses in the surburbs with room for tenants. So why sell.

My basement is sitting empty. It is 2,000 square feet with two bedrooms and a bathroom. No kitchen.

If broke I could put a cheap fridge in, microwave/convection oven combo and two burner electic stove top. Find some govt workers who live even further out and rent it for like $2,600 a month. Maybe 4 guys or ladies who are hybrid can rent it out if each only needs it three nights a week. I am right by NIH in Bethesda.

I would go down to one car. Even though I own my cars. I have to insure and maintain them all.

Cancel every subscription.

if necessary I move in to a tiny basement place and rent out my whole house.

Rent out to who? If people are fleeing the area en masse due to complete lack of jobs nobody is going to be renting from you and you will be competing with professional rental units that will be dropping their prices. Unless you have artificial rental market like being located next to the private company office that still has full staff and isn't experiencing layoffs (maybe Amazon or Capital One) or a major university you are competing with everyone else doing the same thing, not to mention people renting out their entire homes.

In the Real Estate crash of 2009 in Vegas and Florida where people out of work and losing homes rental demand went way up in particular cheaper units. People lost their homes. They cant rent it out if they dont own it. To be honest only 2-3 people on my block work. Most are retired or wealthy. Or the house is a tiny percentage of net worth

RE crash is very different than employment crash. People who lost their homes to foreclosure still kept their jobs and remained in the area, they just needed to find the place to live they could afford. But we are talking about massive number of jobs departing the area altogether, which means people losing their jobs and having to move to where the jobs are if no jobs are created here. Even if you give them free rent they can't afford to live here because they have to eat and pay for healthcare.

^^ yeah, retired or wealthy won't be affected. Obviously. They have passive income and don't have to work to afford their lives. They aren't likely selling . They also aren't going to be looking for rentals.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes! I’m freaking out. I was a probationary. I know I’m just a GS-14 but was able to buy a $2M house in McLean. But I can’t ask whoever gave me the money for the house so actually putting it on the market this weekend for $1M. That way instead of trying to ride it out I can immediately be sure to lose money.

This makes no sense.