for data wonks: charts on DC public vs. private enrollment trends

[Anonymous]

I thought this may be of interest if it hasn't already been posted:

http://blog.metrotrends.org/2014/04/private-school-enrollment-decline-dc/

Interesting that in the past decade, private school enrollment somewhat steeply declined, while traditional public and especially charters seem to be picking up the slack. Also of interest is the map of DC neighborhoods, color-coded by % of private school enrollment.

I just hope this primarily reflects increasing confidence in DC public schools, and not just a decline in private enrollment due to the Great Recession. Although, I'd expect that this decline may level off or reverse if new boundaries/lottery system is put into effect in coming years.

[Anonymous]

Thanks, I've suspected this for a while. People paying more for houses leaves less money for increasing private school tuition. This plus increasing confidence in schools by High SES parents leaves little room for OOB in Ward 3, the traditional escape route for middle class parents in he rest of the city, which has led to overcrowding there, and under enrollment in DCPS elsewhere as charters pick up kids. This leads to the current school assignment conundrum.

[Anonymous]

I'd be curious to see their data calculations. Many of those numbers look unlikely to me.

[Anonymous]

The private school enrollment "estimate" for K-5 is only 805 for 2012--something must be off--that seems really low.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The private school enrollment "estimate" for K-5 is only 805 for 2012--something must be off--that seems really low.

From the accompanying text:

Private school enrollment among elementary school–age children (ages 5 to 10) fell by over 78 percent (about 2,900 students) from 2001 to 2012, with most of this decrease occurring earlier in the decade.

I'm not sure how they derive their estimates, but it is clear that they are confident about them.

St. Ann's Academy is shutting down this year due to under-enrollment. Perhaps this is just the first in a series of closures over the coming years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The private school enrollment "estimate" for K-5 is only 805 for 2012--something must be off--that seems really low.

+1. That number is absurd. Just add up a few elementary privates and you already exceed 805.

[Anonymous]

This probably also includes those schools that the Archdiocese of Washington closed/converted a few years ago. I think there were five or so schools on the east side of town.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The private school enrollment "estimate" for K-5 is only 805 for 2012--something must be off--that seems really low.

+1. That number is absurd. Just add up a few elementary privates and you already exceed 805.

Keep in mind that the 805 number includes only DC residents. If you add up the enrollment in DC private K-5 schools, you would first have to separate out all of the MD and VA kids who are enrolled.

[Anonymous]

another data summary on the same blog....

http://blog.metrotrends.org/2014/04/ward-dc-kids-school/

[Anonymous]

I don't think the private schools are hurting for applicants. Are MD/VA residents really filling all the spots vacated by DC residents? I have to say my gut would suggest that private school enrollment of DC students would remain flat/decline a little, not that precipitously. I am a little skeptical of the numbers.

[Anonymous]

It's a bit misleading since charters are basically private schools that get taxpayer funding.

[Anonymous]

yeah, except for not charging tuition, having to abide by IDEA, the possibility of having the charter revoked, and taking anyone who signs up/wins the admission lottery. pretty much exactly the same.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'd be curious to see their data calculations. Many of those numbers look unlikely to me.

completely agree. I don't believe for a second that there are only 805 kids in the entire city who attend private schools, catholic schools, boarding schools and special ed schools like ivymount.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'd be curious to see their data calculations. Many of those numbers look unlikely to me.

completely agree. I don't believe for a second that there are only 805 kids in the entire city who attend private schools, catholic schools, boarding schools and special ed schools like ivymount.

As PP said, they could be VA or MD residents.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's a bit misleading since charters are basically private schools that get taxpayer funding.

Omg no they aren't. Mandatory standardized tests, for starters.