Donald Trump to rally in VIRGINIA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I said it over two weeks ago and was laughed at on this board. Virginia will turn red.

Yeah, we’re still laughing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:See above - last year at noon turnout was at 51%

Are you talking about 2023, and not 2020? We're definitely lagging compared to 2020, but that' because something like 53% of the votes were banked through EV during the pandemic year.

They need to hit 79% to match 2020 turnout. If 18.7% have voted today through 12:30 pm, that's 2.87% of the total per hour (18.7%/6.5 hours). That would mean another 18.7% through 7 pm if the same number of voters vote for the rest of the day.

This means Fairfax country votes will likely be down. Big trouble for Harris

How do you figure? 61.7 (% of votes as of 12:30) + 18.7 (assumed turnout between 12:30 - 7:00 PM) = 80.4%. That would be higher than the turnout in 2020, when it was 79.4%

However, the number of RV in FFX County is about 16000 fewer than it was in 2020, so to have the same number of voters turn out, turnout needs to be about 81.4%.

I'm pretty sure the 61.7% includes both early and in-person, so FFX was at 61.7% total as of 12:30 while they were at 51% total in 2023. So higher than last year at this time, but of course last year was not a Presidential election year. Bottom line is this probably isn't enough info to infer anything one way or the other, but one thing we can be almost certain of is that this year compared to 2020 there are going to be a lot more Democrats voting in person than 2020 when we were in the height of the pre-vaccine pandemic, and compared to 2020 there have probably been a lot more Republicans voting early, because in 2020 Trump was demonizing mail-in votes.

Your numbers are incorrect.

noon to noon comparison:
2020: 51% early + 9.9% day of = 60.9%
2024: 43% early + 18.7% day of = 61.7%

The higher day of numbers had already made up for the lower early numbers by noon so Fairfax is on track to beat 2020 turnout.

I think you misread my post.

I said 61.7% for 2024. The 51% was for 2023, not 2020. I didn't give any numbers for 2020.

Where did you get 51% by noon in 2023? The overall turnout for 2023 was 41%. https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/sites...lections_results.pdf

Virginia really needs to stop this ridiculous election every year nonsense.

Anyone have turnout updates?

67.9% turnout at 3:30.

In 2020 it was 70.7% at 4 pm so still tracking pretty closely.

Fairfax County said they'd release the last turnout update at 5 pm.