Speculate please - cost of college 18 years from now

[Anonymous]

Now that I have a kiddo, funding college 18 years from now seems daunting. What's it going to be like when my kid(s) go? $1,000,000 a year? Free and paid for by the state? Same as today?

[Anonymous]

We are estimating $500k/4 years.

[Anonymous]

I would think a state college could easily be $50-60,000 a year and private at least $100,000. We did the prepaid for that reason. It will never be free - too much money - its a business.

[Anonymous]

I expect higher Ed to change dramatically by 2030. Already, most freshman classes are taught online, and the availability of MOOCS taught by big-name profs will almost certainly change the economics. Why would a parent or student or government pay $$$ for a 100-level seminar when the students can watch the lectures online and participate in small group discussions for a fraction of the usual cost?

[Anonymous]

The cost of college has gone up about 1200% in the past 30 years so perhaps about half that. I don't think salaries will ever keep up. People will not continue to send their kids away to college for 4 years of some learning and a lot of drinking. There are so many more economical ways to learn and mature and grow up.

[Anonymous]

I started college 20 years ago, and it was about $25,000 a year. Now, my school is about $50,000 a year. So, we are estimating that it will be about $100,000 a year (tuition, room and board only) by the time our kids are in college.

[Anonymous]

I don't think it can go to 100K per year. It is a bubble for sure, because the cost one pays is not support by the increase in jobs one can get from the degree. If it goes to 100K per year almost no one (nationwide) can afford it and banks will be making a very poor decision to loan out that much money for no real return. It will collapse society if it goes that high. Who knows what will happen? I don't have much of a guess myself but I do not think 100K per year is possible.

[Anonymous]

Thanks God I live in Canada. Worked in BigLaw for a while. Had a colleague who was carrying 100,000$ + in student loans (attended school in the US) while I had paid mine off. Same firm, same pay.

[Anonymous]

We're guessing $100K a year for private in 16 years.

Unless we have some unknown rich relative die and leave us a bunch of money, we're not going to be able to cover that for our one child, let alone if we have another kid along the way.

[Anonymous]

Bought a 4-year prepaid tuition plan at a state school. Saving to pay for 4 years at $100K is not worth the payout, in my opinion.

[Anonymous]

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
I went to private college in 1980 which cost 15K a year in tuition. Now that would be 42K. that is what the calculator says and it matches my experience.

[Anonymous]

it was really 15K in 1980? I paid about 20K including room and board for a private college in the mid 90s... that figure sounds too high

[Anonymous]

We're sending DD overseas for university -- either Canada or England (or, even better, somewhere else if she can do the language there).

No way am I subsidizing the education bubble in the U.S. And it is a bubble and a money-making business -- I work for a university here and I am privy to the conversations about how to keep getting more money from the public (next target: the growing hispanic population! Look for universities to start exploiting them heavily and getting them $100Ks in debt in the next decade).

[Anonymous]

There are two contradictory forces:

1. Technology is making information/learning much easier and more accessible. You will be able to access excellent lectures by world experts for very little money.

2. Wealth is being increasingly concentrated in fewer hands, and social mobility is being reduced. The elite will spend a fortune to buy their way in to the most expensive universities and colleges and thereby signal their appropriateness for the small minority of jobs that will pay lucrative salaries.

Who knows how all this will play out. I suspect we will be left with a smaller number of extremely expensive colleges (that may provide generous financial aid for the bright but poor), and then a large number of factories that provide a good education for less money, but that don't necessarily guarantee you access to the best jobs.

[Anonymous]

I'm in this industry too. My guess is $100k/year, which will be 2-3x the rate of inflation over the period.

Sadly, most of the new spending goes on items not directly related to education, like new stadiums and student centers. Tour any college campus, and you can pretty much guarantee you'll find at least one new building/renovation project in progress. It never stops.

For the best of the best (top 50 schools), the market will bear this as the name is too valuable. One strategy they use now is more recruiting of foreign students. As they are not US citizens/permanent residents, they are ineligible for nearly all financial aid = they pay full tuition. The Chinese are now #2 group of foreign uni students in the US (India is #1), and I expect they'll surpass them soon.

Below top 50 is a different story. I've already started to see universities marketing based on value, and we'll definitely see more of this. Prices will still go up, but not at multiples of the rate of inflation.