Any lucky stories to encourage those doing the lottery this year?

[Anonymous]

We've been at it a while. Matched at our first choice bilingual charter in pk3, but it was a bad option for our child who has learning disabilities. We spent two years trying to lottery out. Finally had another good number and got a spot in several charters much further down on our initial list and some dcps schools not on our initial list at all. Now happily at an EOTP DCPS where my child is thriving. So what seems like winning in pk3 may seem like losing by 1st. Keep playing and eventually you'll land in a school that works for you. I only know one family that gave up and went private.

[Anonymous]

We had bad luck year one, did PK3 a school with no waitlist (Friendship Armstrong) and it was great. So-so luck year 2, had a fine year at a different charter. Had a great # for K year and got into our first choice charter.

[Anonymous]

Not a story, but maybe some reassuring math.

Many are pointing out the the lottery is a repeated game. If you are lucky your first year, you might be done for your whole family (given sibling preference) for many years. If you aren't lucky, you can try again.

If you are entering the lottery in PK3, you have a total of 3 lotteries by the time of K. The probability that your best draw of the 3 is in the top p fracrltion of lottery numbers is
1-(1-p)^3.

So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top half (.50) of numbers is .875
So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top fifth (.20) of numbers is .488
So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top .05 of numbers is .143

[Anonymous]

We apply every year just to keep options open. We’ve gotten into every school we have ever been interested in over the years, including LAMB, ITS, TR, Stokes and Cap City.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Good luck OP! We applied for LAMB for PreK3 for my first kid, and had the highest number out of our daycare friends...something in the 560 range. For PreK4 we were number 6 and got in. Have 2 kids at LAMB now, and are very happy there.

This is our story as well.

Does LAMB really let that many kids in for PK4? It’s the only school on our lottery list this year

The only school? Unless you have a sibling preference, that seems very risky. There aren't many schools in DC that have longer waiting lists than LAMB.

[Anonymous]

My neighbor had a terrible number. Her child switched schools 3 times in 3 years, Her DH said we can’t keep doing this to the child. They finally got what they wanted last year but it was hard on the family.

[Anonymous]

Our kid was 40 or so for first grade at Lee, and our PK3 kid was in the hundreds. Mid-summer they added a new lower elementary class and our kid plummeted down the waitlist and got a slot. Our younger kid moved to #1 on the PK3 list and got in soon after.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Good luck OP! We applied for LAMB for PreK3 for my first kid, and had the highest number out of our daycare friends...something in the 560 range. For PreK4 we were number 6 and got in. Have 2 kids at LAMB now, and are very happy there.

This is our story as well.

Does LAMB really let that many kids in for PK4? It’s the only school on our lottery list this year

The only school? Unless you have a sibling preference, that seems very risky. There aren't many schools in DC that have longer waiting lists than LAMB.

Our only great lottery pick ever: My daughter was #7 for LAMB for PK4. We did not get in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We apply every year just to keep options open. We’ve gotten into every school we have ever been interested in over the years, including LAMB, ITS, TR, Stokes and Cap City.

Just curious, how many kids do you have?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not a story, but maybe some reassuring math.

Many are pointing out the the lottery is a repeated game. If you are lucky your first year, you might be done for your whole family (given sibling preference) for many years. If you aren't lucky, you can try again.

If you are entering the lottery in PK3, you have a total of 3 lotteries by the time of K. The probability that your best draw of the 3 is in the top p fracrltion of lottery numbers is
1-(1-p)^3.

So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top half (.50) of numbers is .875
So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top fifth (.20) of numbers is .488
So, for example, the chance that your number is eventually in the top .05 of numbers is .143

So true. It is reassuring to hear about this, that most people don't get into their preferred choices year for prek3 but they keep trying. Good luck to all of us!

[Anonymous]

This is why you should buy in a zone that you would be happy to send your kid to for K. We had a horrible time in the Prek3 and 4 lottery, but never were all that concerned because we had a good inbounds school. I am always surprised at the number of people who just hope for good luck in the lottery. Sure it would have been nice to have two years of free prek, but it didn't work that way for us.

[Anonymous]

We matched with our #4. We made it as high as #3 on the waitlist for #1, Stokes Spanish and off the waitlist for ITS and Lee. We're going to lottery again because why not, but I'm pretty sure we won't leave.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is why you should buy in a zone that you would be happy to send your kid to for K. We had a horrible time in the Prek3 and 4 lottery, but never were all that concerned because we had a good inbounds school. I am always surprised at the number of people who just hope for good luck in the lottery. Sure it would have been nice to have two years of free prek, but it didn't work that way for us.

some people are prepared to go to their in bounds, and send their kids there, and still have a terrible experience. that's what happened to us and we're still digging out of the impact of it for our kid. And, it is literally impossible for us to buy in the Wilson feeder pattern -- we just don't make enough money. buying power can't be the answer for everyone.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is why you should buy in a zone that you would be happy to send your kid to for K. We had a horrible time in the Prek3 and 4 lottery, but never were all that concerned because we had a good inbounds school. I am always surprised at the number of people who just hope for good luck in the lottery. Sure it would have been nice to have two years of free prek, but it didn't work that way for us.

Well, I just can't afford to live where the good schools are located.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is why you should buy in a zone that you would be happy to send your kid to for K. We had a horrible time in the Prek3 and 4 lottery, but never were all that concerned because we had a good inbounds school. I am always surprised at the number of people who just hope for good luck in the lottery. Sure it would have been nice to have two years of free prek, but it didn't work that way for us.

Is this a serious comment?