Redfin sudden decrease of 25%

[Anonymous]

"Middle class" people can't afford $1.5M homes, and are priced out of Arlington and McLean. The only places for "middle class" people in VA are either in horrible 2/10 school districts or 1 1/4+ commutes to DC in rush hour.

This isn't true at all. There are homes that haven't reached 1.5M in FCC and Falls Church. There is Vienna, Reston, Herndon etc etc People are not commuting into DC. They are commuting within NOVA.

MOCO seems to think that everyone still just works for a DC based agency. They don't.

[Anonymous]

How did this go from Redfin to yet another boring MoCo vs. NOVA discussion?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Fact is that if you have a budget of $400,000 to $900,000 (middle class and upper middle class by area standards), you get much more bang for your buck in MoCo than in NoVA. You can get a SFH half a mile from DC, 1 1/2 miles from Metro and all the shopping in Bethesda and in a 8/10 school district for $899,000 in Chevy Chase. There is nothing this nice, this close to DC and Metro, for this kind of price in VA.

There is always a reason why something is cheaper. MOCO is simply not as desirable as NOVA so it is cheaper. If you are getting more "bang for your buck" you are giving up on future appreciation. You are also taking a big risk on those 8/10 schools which are right on the border of some of the lowest performing schools in the DMV.

One reason why the homes in VA are more expensive is that there were more tear downs in close-in VA than close-in MoCo. Homes in places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda were always expensive, whereas 1,200 sq ft bungalows in Crystal City and Clarendon could be bought for around $100,000 in the 90s (when you couldn't get a home in Chevy Chase for less than $500,000). When you tear everything down and have no regulations on what you can build, you get a glut of $1.5M craftsman McMansions, which makes prices go up. NoVA has been playing catch-up with places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda since the 80s.

"Middle class" people can't afford $1.5M homes, and are priced out of Arlington and McLean. The only places for "middle class" people in VA are either in horrible 2/10 school districts or 1 1/4+ commutes to DC in rush hour. You can still get walkable places with good schools and a much less stressful commute to DC in MD for $850,000 to $900,000 and less. $750,000 in Arlington in a 6/10 school district will get you this:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2411-John-Marshall-Dr-22207/home/11225837

Not everyone in NOVA need to commute to DC. This isn’t 1996. There are several job markets and big companies throughout NOVA, especially in west FFX/east LC. The argument that people who buy far out from DC are dumb poopyheads argument is losing its leverage.

[Anonymous]

Because the only place where 1.5 M houses are selling for 1.2 M is in MOCO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Fact is that if you have a budget of $400,000 to $900,000 (middle class and upper middle class by area standards), you get much more bang for your buck in MoCo than in NoVA. You can get a SFH half a mile from DC, 1 1/2 miles from Metro and all the shopping in Bethesda and in a 8/10 school district for $899,000 in Chevy Chase. There is nothing this nice, this close to DC and Metro, for this kind of price in VA.

There is always a reason why something is cheaper. MOCO is simply not as desirable as NOVA so it is cheaper. If you are getting more "bang for your buck" you are giving up on future appreciation. You are also taking a big risk on those 8/10 schools which are right on the border of some of the lowest performing schools in the DMV.

One reason why the homes in VA are more expensive is that there were more tear downs in close-in VA than close-in MoCo. Homes in places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda were always expensive, whereas 1,200 sq ft bungalows in Crystal City and Clarendon could be bought for around $100,000 in the 90s (when you couldn't get a home in Chevy Chase for less than $500,000). When you tear everything down and have no regulations on what you can build, you get a glut of $1.5M craftsman McMansions, which makes prices go up. NoVA has been playing catch-up with places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda since the 80s.

"Middle class" people can't afford $1.5M homes, and are priced out of Arlington and McLean. The only places for "middle class" people in VA are either in horrible 2/10 school districts or 1 1/4+ commutes to DC in rush hour. You can still get walkable places with good schools and a much less stressful commute to DC in MD for $850,000 to $900,000 and less. $750,000 in Arlington in a 6/10 school district will get you this:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2411-John-Marshall-Dr-22207/home/11225837

I live in McLean (Chesterbrook/Longfellow/McLean) and our house is worth ~$850-$900k. Four houses have sold for that range in our neighborhood over the past year. None have been torn down. You dont need a budget of $1.5M to buy here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Fact is that if you have a budget of $400,000 to $900,000 (middle class and upper middle class by area standards), you get much more bang for your buck in MoCo than in NoVA. You can get a SFH half a mile from DC, 1 1/2 miles from Metro and all the shopping in Bethesda and in a 8/10 school district for $899,000 in Chevy Chase. There is nothing this nice, this close to DC and Metro, for this kind of price in VA.

There is always a reason why something is cheaper. MOCO is simply not as desirable as NOVA so it is cheaper. If you are getting more "bang for your buck" you are giving up on future appreciation. You are also taking a big risk on those 8/10 schools which are right on the border of some of the lowest performing schools in the DMV.

One reason why the homes in VA are more expensive is that there were more tear downs in close-in VA than close-in MoCo. Homes in places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda were always expensive, whereas 1,200 sq ft bungalows in Crystal City and Clarendon could be bought for around $100,000 in the 90s (when you couldn't get a home in Chevy Chase for less than $500,000). When you tear everything down and have no regulations on what you can build, you get a glut of $1.5M craftsman McMansions, which makes prices go up. NoVA has been playing catch-up with places like Chevy Chase and Bethesda since the 80s.

"Middle class" people can't afford $1.5M homes, and are priced out of Arlington and McLean. The only places for "middle class" people in VA are either in horrible 2/10 school districts or 1 1/4+ commutes to DC in rush hour. You can still get walkable places with good schools and a much less stressful commute to DC in MD for $850,000 to $900,000 and less. $750,000 in Arlington in a 6/10 school district will get you this:

https://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/2411-John-Marshall-Dr-22207/home/11225837

I live in McLean (Chesterbrook/Longfellow/McLean) and our house is worth ~$850-$900k. Four houses have sold for that range in our neighborhood over the past year. None have been torn down. You dont need a budget of $1.5M to buy here.

Is your house a decent size or tiny? There’s a difference between a 900k house that’s in McLean thats cheap but basically as big as one of those Arlington shitshacks

[Anonymous]

Appreciation DOES NOT equal nice place to live.
NoVa, even with its appreciation, is not a nice place to live.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Appreciation DOES NOT equal nice place to live.
NoVa, even with its appreciation, is not a nice place to live.

Can you MoCo trolls please go away?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Appreciation DOES NOT equal nice place to live.
NoVa, even with its appreciation, is not a nice place to live.

Can you MoCo trolls please go away?

When you NoVa trolls go away, we'll follow suit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Redfin shows our estimate price to be $15K BELOW what we paid in 2017. However, we just refinanced and the bank appraised us at $85K higher than our purchase price.

Don't believe the Redfin algorithms. It doesn't account for condition of the home or amenities - tear down vs. newly remodeled by the last owner, finished vs. unfinished basement, degree of flipper activity in the area, etc. It just looks at the tax records for square footage, # of beds and baths, and recent sales prices.

I bought in 2017, and mine just dropped a ton as well, about what I paid. As an example of how screwy it is, my neighbor's house is EXACTLY the same house, same lot, etc., except for some different flooring. It last sold in 2013. It is on Redfin as $88K more than mine. This likely has something to do with how they integrate recent sales price in the estimate.

[Anonymous]

The problem is that while most owners and sellers do not worry about Redfin estimate, this is still something that buyers look at and consider. It is like saying, hey, don't look at the car's MSRP.. it means nothing.. yet.. it is a starting point for everybody who is car shopping. So is it.. isn't it. is it?... is it? It is.

[Anonymous]

The whole amazon thing + MoCo rezoning buzz took a lot of oxygen from MoCo pricing so now throw in Redfin and Zillow prices craze and if not anything more then at least potential buyers are confused and plenty.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The problem is that while most owners and sellers do not worry about Redfin estimate, this is still something that buyers look at and consider. It is like saying, hey, don't look at the car's MSRP.. it means nothing.. yet.. it is a starting point for everybody who is car shopping. So is it.. isn't it. is it?... is it? It is.

Bullocks. If I see a car I like, I’ll call the dealership directly to find out the actual price and test drive the car myself before trusting a website. Same with sites like Redfin and Zillow. When it comes down to it, comps are the only thing I care about. Sites like Zillow are just there to give me a preview of what the house looks like and nothing more.

[Anonymous]

The idea that a $850,000 home is even remotely accessible to the "middle class" is hilarious. Please. The vast majority of families in this region cannot afford those homes.

[Anonymous]

Live in NW DC. Noticed this same thing because it's part of my Wealthfront summary, which suddenly was $200K less one day than the day before.

I emailed Redfin and told them that this seemed like something odd was going on with their algorithm, and they said "sorry, the algorithm does what it does. It's infallible."

Where I'd challenge that was a house on my street that sold two days prior for $793K, Redfin said was worth $702K. I don't really understand that. If someone bought it for $793K, then it's worth $793K.