Avenel- Is there something wrong?

[Anonymous]

it used to be that you showed wealth by escaping the city, now wealth is shown by proximity to the core. It is hitting areas like great falls and Potomac somewhat. Restrictive zoning is protecting these areas form condos and the people getting pushed out of proximity but it isn't sure for how long with modern justice trends and the news cycle showing the east county voters just how many times out of sight and out of mind decisions that protect areas like that turn out to hurt areas like silver spring.

It would take riots or a flood or negative demographic shifts to bring the bubble suburbs back into fashion. The question is can they hold on until then without being bent and contorted by people who resent them. The problem with a lack of density is you don't have the vote and it is harder for their campaign contributions to push for one-sided policies at the county level.

I will tell you this, areas that Incorporated before these trends that aren't beholden to the county or planning commission will become the new gold standard or policy gated communities. That is where the money is currently going to.

[Anonymous]

I feel like there's only a problem at Avenel if you compare appreciation there to very hot areas. It's not a hot area but its hardly in crisis. Plus, big showy houses like that, but all houses really, have a period where they look bad old and not yet good old, and those houses are in it. In another few decades maybe they will start to seem retro chic. Peak Avenel moms wanted to wear big gold earrings and take their friends to the wine cellar when they came over for cheese overlooking the golf course. Peak 2019 moms want to pretend a 1000 sq ft kitchen is "farm house" because it has black hardware. They want to make artisanal crackers for when their friends come over for cheese and to run down to the pretend-street-mall-thing for dinner. In either case, a bunch of the value was the "lifestyle" and lifestyles go in and out of fashion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I feel like there's only a problem at Avenel if you compare appreciation there to very hot areas. It's not a hot area but its hardly in crisis. Plus, big showy houses like that, but all houses really, have a period where they look bad old and not yet good old, and those houses are in it. In another few decades maybe they will start to seem retro chic. Peak Avenel moms wanted to wear big gold earrings and take their friends to the wine cellar when they came over for cheese overlooking the golf course. Peak 2019 moms want to pretend a 1000 sq ft kitchen is "farm house" because it has black hardware. They want to make artisanal crackers for when their friends come over for cheese and to run down to the pretend-street-mall-thing for dinner. In either case, a bunch of the value was the "lifestyle" and lifestyles go in and out of fashion.

Very well said and describes the housing market.

[Anonymous]

Potomac is probably the best commute into western DC (K street, western downtown, Foggy Bottom ) in MD especially if you take River Road. Its even quicker if you commute before or after the MCPS busses. Its not a good financial investment though -especially Avenel.

Potomac was very hot up until 2007. In the 90s and early 2000s, N Arlington wasn't a consideration for people with money and MCPS was viewed very favorably across the DMV. Now MCPS is no longer a draw and N Arlington and McLean are super hot. Avenel appealed to people who wanted to be in Potomac but didn't want a yard. Being on the golf course, appealed to out of town buyers who were used to the highest end neighborhoods being near a country club in their old state.

People today who would have bought in Avenel are buying n Arlington, McLean, Great Falls and Bethesda. The area is only looking at further value decline. Avenel houses in particular are a challenge because they look very 90s which means that you would be looking at several hundred thousand to update the house over time or you'll lose even more money when it comes to resell. The few buyers that are looking in Potomac are looking for a cheaper deal for a bigger house and bigger lot. Avenel doesn't have the bigger lots so it knocks these buyers out. The high HOA fees knock out other bargain hunters who can't make the debt to income level without putting much more money into the downpayment.

I agree that Potomac is a good value in terms of house/lot size for the money and proximity to DC but it isn't a good value from an investment standpoint. As a trade off, its really an ideal location if you don't like congestion, want to send your kids to good private school (Holton, Bullis, Norwood etc) and nice sized yard with mature landscaping/privacy (though not Avenel for this). You just need to do your homework on what it will cost over time to replace major items (HVAC, roof) and remodel bathrooms and kitchens and be prepared to sell for less than you bought.

[Anonymous]

Restrictive zoning is protecting these areas form condos and the people getting pushed out of proximity but it isn't sure for how long with modern justice trends and the news cycle showing the east county voters just how many times out of sight and out of mind decisions that protect areas like that turn out to hurt areas like silver spring.

This is ridiculous. Nothing in Potomac is hurting Silver Spring. In fact, the western areas funds all the programs in Silver Spring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:8:50 PP here. FWIW, my commute downtown is actually better from Avenel then it was from Bethesda. I can just scoot down McArthur. At our old house, had to get through the Bethesda traffic first, which always added 10+ minutes.

It's the Potomac folks who live farther down River Road that get hit - there's always a long line of cars backed up trying to get through the Falls/River intersection at the Village. But that doesn't affect us at Avenel.

Have to disagree. We live in close-in Bethesda. When our kids attended Norwood years ago, it was a crawl out River Road to the school (same intersection as one can turn down to go to Avenel).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It’s just out of fashion now - full of people in their 60s and 70s and not very diverse. Everyone is like Daniel Snyder, except older and with less money.

It has good diversity - international, etc.

[Anonymous]

Have to disagree. We live in close-in Bethesda. When our kids attended Norwood years ago, it was a crawl out River Road to the school (same intersection as one can turn down to go to Avenel).

Its a crawl from Bethesda to the beltway south ramps on River Rd (I'm guessing its Bethesda traffic to VA) in the morning but its always moving fast/clear when I drive the other direction into DC.

[Anonymous]

Potomac realtors also are not doing their sellers any favors. We sold a house in Potomac and I was surprised when my realtor wanted to list the house much higher than I thought it was worth based on the comps. She was adamant that if we priced low people would think something was wrong with the house. I regret taking her advice because the house sat on the market forever, got into the slow/dead season and then sold for less than if we had priced it right in the spring/summer.

This happens all over Potomac. I think its a combination of local realtors not wanting to accept the reality of the market and not representing their clients well. Since they get the commission anyway. I have heard that they don't want to advertise lower prices to other future sellers. They want to send out the mailer to everyone in the area showing they have a 1.4M-2M listing so they can get more high end listings.

If they listed lower and in line with the market/comps, they would move the houses faster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:8:50 PP here. FWIW, my commute downtown is actually better from Avenel then it was from Bethesda. I can just scoot down McArthur. At our old house, had to get through the Bethesda traffic first, which always added 10+ minutes.

It's the Potomac folks who live farther down River Road that get hit - there's always a long line of cars backed up trying to get through the Falls/River intersection at the Village. But that doesn't affect us at Avenel.

Have to disagree. We live in close-in Bethesda. When our kids attended Norwood years ago, it was a crawl out River Road to the school (same intersection as one can turn down to go to Avenel).

I'm the PP. I'm surprised to hear this. Very often leaving Avenel I make that right turn at Bradley onto River during rush hour. It can be congested, but honestly, I've rarely experienced it as a crawl. That part of River close to the Beltway moves along. Also, isn't there an entrance to Norwood off Bradley?

Are you talking about coming down Bradley from Bethesda to River? That, I imagine, would be backed up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They're extremely outdated and the 24/7 airplane noise problem keeps getting worse.

+1, this is what's wrong with Avenel. Looked at a house there and we couldn't talk when we went outside.

Not unique to Avenel though

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s just out of fashion now - full of people in their 60s and 70s and not very diverse. Everyone is like Daniel Snyder, except older and with less money.

It has good diversity - international, etc.

Yes. Plenty of international families who value diversity

[Anonymous]

I never thought I would consider Avenel but I can't find anything with a decent sized lot and a decent looking neighborhood in our price range. I've looked at a few and yes, you have to put in a few 100K to update it. Most people have done nothing to update over the years. We're considering but I hope more Bethesda homes come up in the next few weeks. This thread is making me rethink Avenel.

[Anonymous]

The issue is not just Avenel but frankly the entire area. When you have a region that is rooted in gov't, the houses are going reflect that. So any SFH before 1970 is (by today's standards) a small-ish 1800-2400 sq ft house, often brick with 8ft ceilings, relatively small lot size - the result of both being affordable on a gov't salary from 40-50 years ago. The needs/priorities were different then. No one swore by mudrooms with cubbies, farmhouse sinks and higher ceilings - nor any Instagram envy.

Simply put, the housing stock is very dated, decent build but not 100-year-old houses like some parts of Europe, but lacks features today's buyers want - higher ceilings, more light, mudrooms with cubbies, spa bathrooms and a different look than brick (hence McCraftsmans). Clearly, with people spending 2 million or more for new homes like this, those with the means are setting direction for the market. And it already is working its way down as you now see similar houses at 1 million but with fewer amenities. They are choosing to tear down and build closer in at the detriment to neighborhoods like Avenel.

To the OP, there is technically nothing wrong with Avenel. If you brought someone to Avenel who was making 30k a year in some other place, they would think they were in a special place. The homes are nice, common areas and pool/tennis/golf are all right there.

The issue is really does it fit your lifestyle, budget, location, and yes, some plane noise (this is everywhere in DC folks).

[Anonymous]

Avenel is not going to fall off the real estate cliff because of any statements made here. It’s a good location. Suburbs are not going out of style. It’s just that it won’t go up in value because the lots are small and the HOA very restrictive. (you can’t look at the HOA restrictivions unless you are buying) No pools, no home playground no this no that. It’s like a TH community. People don’t love that for the money when the feel they are paying for an amenity/ style they don’t like/ don’t need/ and are restricted from what they do want and need