Holy cow. In terms of crowding, we haven't seen nothing yet.

[Anonymous]

Most of this projection captures the children of Yuppies who would like to remain living in the city with their little ones. But barring a federal takeover of DCPS with new management and new organizational goals, nothing will change and they will still bail. The projections lie.

[Anonymous]

DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

DC sold off dozens and dozens of school buildings in the last 50 years.

Crowding isn't just WOTP. i was at Tubman Elementary the other day in Columbia Heights. They have removed their playground, half of it is used for trailers and the other half for overflow teacher parking.

At the middle and high school level it's still just Deal and Wilson.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

You will when little Abigail or Seth gets redistricted from precious Janney to Mayor Marion S. Crackhead Learning Campus in S.E. DC...

I posted this. I live IB for a 40/40 school and already got redistricted from Wilson to Eastern. So I'm really not concerned if people in Ward 3 see some boundaries shifted. Even if it means they have to travel across the park. Or they can leave their boundaries alone and have 37 kids in a kindergarten class. Doesn't really affect me either way.

What's a 40/40 school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

DC sold off dozens and dozens of school buildings in the last 50 years.

Crowding isn't just WOTP. i was at Tubman Elementary the other day in Columbia Heights. They have removed their playground, half of it is used for trailers and the other half for overflow teacher parking.

At the middle and high school level it's still just Deal and Wilson.

No Roosevelt is gonna be YUGE! As successful as Eastern! And we're going to invest $150million redoing Coolidge for the 30 or so students that graduate from that hellhole every year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

You will when little Abigail or Seth gets redistricted from precious Janney to Mayor Marion S. Crackhead Learning Campus in S.E. DC...

I posted this. I live IB for a 40/40 school and already got redistricted from Wilson to Eastern. So I'm really not concerned if people in Ward 3 see some boundaries shifted. Even if it means they have to travel across the park. Or they can leave their boundaries alone and have 37 kids in a kindergarten class. Doesn't really affect me either way.

What's a 40/40 school?

One of 40 lowest performing schools in DCPS. In 2012 DCPS launched an initiative to see 40 percent gains in each these schools. https://dcps.dc.gov/publication/40-lowest-performing-dcps-schools

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There are new charters applying every year. And DCPS can always redistrict. I am not worried.

You will when little Abigail or Seth gets redistricted from precious Janney to Mayor Marion S. Crackhead Learning Campus in S.E. DC...

I posted this. I live IB for a 40/40 school and already got redistricted from Wilson to Eastern. So I'm really not concerned if people in Ward 3 see some boundaries shifted. Even if it means they have to travel across the park. Or they can leave their boundaries alone and have 37 kids in a kindergarten class. Doesn't really affect me either way.

What's a 40/40 school?

One of 40 lowest performing schools in DCPS. In 2012 DCPS launched an initiative to see 40 percent gains in each these schools. https://dcps.dc.gov/publication/40-lowest-performing-dcps-schools

Wow. Has DC ever posted 40 point gains in any schools, ever? In fact, has any urban district accomplished that?

That's a nice-sounding goal, but is it based on anything in the real world?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Agree. Full capacity at close in schools stops people from fleeing IB schools in favor of those schools. Brent begets Maury begets LT begets...(LT)? In each case those schools were the preferred schools of people from the CH area, and when they couldn't get into the OOB school they stayed home. Which in turn filled their IB school. The catch is that it doesn't happen overnight so it takes 4-5 years of IB-only for the change to really take hold.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

Sure, but it also had a total population ~ 750 million and included middle and working class families.

DC today is very different demographically: fewer families, more singles and couples without children. Many of those historic buildings have been sold off and converted to condos (there are some really gorgeous ones too - none of which are large enough for families of school-aged children who would be attending them if they were open). The suburbs have exploded and offer an easier path for a quality education for many families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

Sure, but it also had a total population ~ 750 million and included middle and working class families.

DC today is very different demographically: fewer families, more singles and couples without children. Many of those historic buildings have been sold off and converted to condos (there are some really gorgeous ones too - none of which are large enough for families of school-aged children who would be attending them if they were open). The suburbs have exploded and offer an easier path for a quality education for many families.

Wow, that's really amazing that D.C. previously had a population of 750 million!

Families are staying longer than 10-20 years ago, and many of the families I know live in condos. I think the current urban 20-somethings are very different from their 40-something predecessors.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Agree. Full capacity at close in schools stops people from fleeing IB schools in favor of those schools. Brent begets Maury begets LT begets...(LT)? In each case those schools were the preferred schools of people from the CH area, and when they couldn't get into the OOB school they stayed home. Which in turn filled their IB school. The catch is that it doesn't happen overnight so it takes 4-5 years of IB-only for the change to really take hold.

LT begets Miner and JO Wilson. Seaton begets Langley. Langley begets.... Langdon? But it also works upwards-- LT begets Stuart-Hobson. Cleveland and Bruce-Monroe beget MacFarland.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Agree. Full capacity at close in schools stops people from fleeing IB schools in favor of those schools. Brent begets Maury begets LT begets...(LT)? In each case those schools were the preferred schools of people from the CH area, and when they couldn't get into the OOB school they stayed home. Which in turn filled their IB school. The catch is that it doesn't happen overnight so it takes 4-5 years of IB-only for the change to really take hold.

LT begets Miner and JO Wilson. Seaton begets Langley. Langley begets.... Langdon? But it also works upwards-- LT begets Stuart-Hobson. Cleveland and Bruce-Monroe beget MacFarland.

I would say Langley is being begotten by Seaton and Cleveland, but also by the boundary change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DCPS had almost 150,000 students in the 1960s.

Sure, but it also had a total population ~ 750 million and included middle and working class families.

DC today is very different demographically: fewer families, more singles and couples without children. Many of those historic buildings have been sold off and converted to condos (there are some really gorgeous ones too - none of which are large enough for families of school-aged children who would be attending them if they were open). The suburbs have exploded and offer an easier path for a quality education for many families.

Wow, that's really amazing that D.C. previously had a population of 750 million!

Families are staying longer than 10-20 years ago, and many of the families I know live in condos. I think the current urban 20-somethings are very different from their 40-something predecessors.

At its peak, over 800K in 1950.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Agree. Full capacity at close in schools stops people from fleeing IB schools in favor of those schools. Brent begets Maury begets LT begets...(LT)? In each case those schools were the preferred schools of people from the CH area, and when they couldn't get into the OOB school they stayed home. Which in turn filled their IB school. The catch is that it doesn't happen overnight so it takes 4-5 years of IB-only for the change to really take hold.

LT begets Miner and JO Wilson. Seaton begets Langley. Langley begets.... Langdon? But it also works upwards-- LT begets Stuart-Hobson. Cleveland and Bruce-Monroe beget MacFarland.

My bad. That was a typo. I intended to say just that; LT begets JO. And I completely agree that with LT and JO pushing up, SH being more convenient to Brent and Maury than other MS, and Basis and Latin having finished their expansion that caused a pronounced 5th grad drain from all ES, SH is well positioned.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Most of the excess capacity isn't at schools people woulf want to go to. But clearly this will benefit the schools on the tipping point.

Agree. Full capacity at close in schools stops people from fleeing IB schools in favor of those schools. Brent begets Maury begets LT begets...(LT)? In each case those schools were the preferred schools of people from the CH area, and when they couldn't get into the OOB school they stayed home. Which in turn filled their IB school. The catch is that it doesn't happen overnight so it takes 4-5 years of IB-only for the change to really take hold.

LT begets Miner and JO Wilson. Seaton begets Langley. Langley begets.... Langdon? But it also works upwards-- LT begets Stuart-Hobson. Cleveland and Bruce-Monroe beget MacFarland.

My bad. That was a typo. I intended to say just that; LT begets JO. And I completely agree that with LT and JO pushing up, SH being more convenient to Brent and Maury than other MS, and Basis and Latin having finished their expansion that caused a pronounced 5th grad drain from all ES, SH is well positioned.

I definitely think SH is the next domino to fall. This year is the first time I have heard SH as a reason to enroll an older child in LT or Watkins. It will have a mutually positive effect on feeder elementaries. Just one or two more years I think. Congrats parents, you did a stellar job!