high stats-doesnt want to ed

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DD is ED'ing to UVA but it's totally her decision. We are in-state and the money saved there (vsk private or OOS) could be put towards the grad school that she is pretty sure she wants. She loved the campus. And she feels strongly that she wants the whole process over as soon as possible to "enjoy" the rest of senior year.

We have told her multiple times she can EA instead but she is insistent. She may feel differently if it doesn't work out in her favor, but that's where she is right now. Based on the scatter plot she has a very strong shot from her HS.

We were in same boat last year...our daughter chose to ED to UVA and it was a great decision for her. Just to be done before the holidays and enjoy them celebrating her accomplishment while also being able to lay off the gas second half of Senior year and enjoy it......was all well worth it!!! Would make that decision all over again.

We knew we were full pay too regardless and it was her top pick. She's thriving and absolutely loving it there this year!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

With few exceptions (MIT and certain majors) I agree with this at all points in the process, it is harder for females. There are more of them applying to college and they tend to be better students and more consistently so throughout HS

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DC was very similar unhooked high stats kid but with stronger EC's (leadership, couple of national awards). He did not want to ED, had a pretty allergic reaction to it. The discussions around this with him were the most interesting of the college process. Turns out my kid has a totally different risk profile (at least at this age) than his parents. He valued regret minimization (i.e. never knowing what could have been and feeling that he settled) over risk minimization of ED and getting in to say UChicago.
I think the kid has to make the final call but have a serious discussion with them using the negative outcomes of each path, i.e. you get in to your ED but then your friend with lower stats gets in RD to your real dream school or you don't ED and then everyone else gets in and is done, your spend 4 more months in limbo and end up at a school no better than where you probably could have gotten in ED?

spot on!--you are absolutely right regret vs maximization--where did he end up? ps kid is president of two stem clubs that are very active, but no national awards

He ended up at an Ivy, also got into to Rice, Williams, Amherst, Cal, UCLA, UMich Honors, UVA so he was super happy he didn't ED. However, Jan-March were pretty painful, especially the pressure to EDII. That was worse than the EDI decision frankly, the colleges nag them to convert to it, the school counselors pressure them and they have friends who are basically able to fully check out on 2nd semester senior year while they are still totally tortured by it.
Look hard at your schools data with him in thinking through this.

What kinds of HS is he from and is he unhooked except strong academics? Willing to share GPA and score ranges? Thx

Stem major, UW GPA 3.97, weighted 4.5 (brought down because took extra unweighted art classes beyond required years and 2 A-'s, none in Jr year), 1550 SAT, (not super scored but don't know that matters) and 5's on all APs at a private that makes kids take tests for all AP's.
My kid got lucky and I know that, the odds are not favorable regardless of stats. However, I have a theory which is that last year admissions were less holistic, and that there were applicants who were hard to reject because of threats of further litigation/this administration watching them. My guess at numbers is that there are 20k kids with 1550+ SAT scores and probably half of them are committed after ED, leaving say 10-12k in RD spread across the top schools so say 1,000 applicants at each school with that score? Of those how many also have all 5's on the AP's and never a B? I am sure a pretty good chunk but still a pool of competitors in the hundreds not the tens of thousands and that group has a higher percentage acceptance rate than those with lower stats.

Based on my kids' private, where 20% of the students were NMSF, your theory does not hold. Lots of unhooked shutouts from the T10 (fewer from T20, though).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

With few exceptions (MIT and certain majors) I agree with this at all points in the process, it is harder for females. There are more of them applying to college and they tend to be better students and more consistently so throughout HS

even for a 1550 sat? wf? no edge? i thought they were making tests more relevant this year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

With few exceptions (MIT and certain majors) I agree with this at all points in the process, it is harder for females. There are more of them applying to college and they tend to be better students and more consistently so throughout HS

even for a 1550 sat? wf? no edge? i thought they were making tests more relevant this year

Something like 20K students score above 1550 on the SAT. Most of them vie for seats at the same 20 schools. It's musical chairs and more often than not, a high scorer will end up on the floor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

With few exceptions (MIT and certain majors) I agree with this at all points in the process, it is harder for females. There are more of them applying to college and they tend to be better students and more consistently so throughout HS

even for a 1550 sat? wf? no edge? i thought they were making tests more relevant this year

Something like 20K students score above 1550 on the SAT. Most of them vie for seats at the same 20 schools. It's musical chairs and more often than not, a high scorer will end up on the floor.

yes 20k but i doubt the majority are wf

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

There is also a clear full pay advantage on the waitlist(I understand the torture of having it go on even longer but I know a kid who was going to UCSD and ended up at Stanford off the WL this year) and possibly in RD as well.

I don't doubt that this happened, but it is extremely unlikely that someone gets off of the waitlist at places like Stanford - the yield rate is crazy high and there are many people on the WL. For each of these kids who win the lottery, there are thousands for whom the WL is just a soft rejection. In other words, the chances of this are low - even lower than getting in RD.

Don't count on any WL if you are female. Almost all of the WL movement we saw last year was male.

Maybe coincidence. Stanford has slightly more males than females apply fwiw.

With few exceptions (MIT and certain majors) I agree with this at all points in the process, it is harder for females. There are more of them applying to college and they tend to be better students and more consistently so throughout HS

even for a 1550 sat? wf? no edge? i thought they were making tests more relevant this year

Something like 20K students score above 1550 on the SAT. Most of them vie for seats at the same 20 schools. It's musical chairs and more often than not, a high scorer will end up on the floor.

yes 20k but i doubt the majority are wf

THOUSANDS of the students who score >1550 are white females (if that is what you mean by WF).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:this is why i want them to ed, we will be full pay no matter what, and due to this why not use to our advantage

then you should. its a huge miss on your part.

RD is a bloodbath for oversubscribed majors at T20 (engineering, CS, business, and increasingly some majors like math/bio/pre-med).

So dramatic 🙄

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I would not push a kid to commit/ ED when he is not on board.

The only reason to do so would be to maximize the chances that the kid is accepted at the highest prestige place possible.

Is prestige really your most valued outcome?

i dont but my kid does lol

Oof! Are you the mom of the kid I’m advising??? He wants to ED but mom says no. Chances of him getting into HYPSM are sooooo slim, I think she is making a mistake.

If you are her, please reconsider. Thanks!

[Anonymous]

I hear stories like this every year - a kid who could had the stats for UVA/Michigan/UMD/UNC etc. who decides to use their ED on an Ivy/MIT/Duke whatever and then ends up getting WL at their ED and at the top state flagships and going somewhere ranked in the 50's or 60's. Would have been better off using ED at the state flagship.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Im urging kid to ed somewhere but they dont want to--1550/5s in all aps done so far spanish/calcBC/compA/history, 4 in freshman year ap. 4,0 UW, public. IB candidate, no awards . strong leadership in school, no research, no arts/no hooks-wf
does a kid like this need to ED for best option and ED where? wants math/maybe engineering

ED to CMU, Rice or Chicago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hear stories like this every year - a kid who could had the stats for UVA/Michigan/UMD/UNC etc. who decides to use their ED on an Ivy/MIT/Duke whatever and then ends up getting WL at their ED and at the top state flagships and going somewhere ranked in the 50's or 60's. Would have been better off using ED at the state flagship.

I’m not sure I understand. Not all state flagships offer ED. Michigan is just starting it this year.

[Anonymous]

If kid doesn’t want it, don’t do it. They will blame you if they don’t like the school. I’ve seen so many kids have “buyers remorse” after hitting that ED submit button. Try to find a safety they love and shoot their shot in EA/RD. They’ll end up where they’re supposed to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If kid doesn’t want it, don’t do it. They will blame you if they don’t like the school. I’ve seen so many kids have “buyers remorse” after hitting that ED submit button. Try to find a safety they love and shoot their shot in EA/RD. They’ll end up where they’re supposed to.

yes-im agreeing with you, they may rea but realize that its like nothinburger, things will fall where they fall