More stock market carnage coming?! S&P futures down another 4.5%!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You can't really turn the world's economic order on its head and not expect repercussions. And now that the United States has demonstrated it's no longer a serious nation, but instead one that can be jerked around and will jerk around others based on the whims of a felonious, idiotic shithead, good luck putting that genie back in the bottle. Many people are going to have their retirements shattered and many businesses will fail.

"one that can be jerked around" - True. That has been happening for decades.

"will jerk around others" - Should have happened decades ago, but didn't.

"on the whims of a felonious, idiotic shithead" - But...no one else took action.

"good luck putting that genie back in the bottle" - Agreed. Gonna be wild.

"Many people are going to have their retirements shattered" - The same people who were driving G-Wagons, because ...stonks!! ? The average person has very little exposure to the capital markets, this is only affecting the wealthy. They can take it.

"many businesses will fail" - Should have happened decades ago. All these zombie companies that exists solely because we kept cost of money so low for so long...

This is actually a good point. It’s been documented that the top 10% wealthiest Americans own 90% of all stocks. Trump seems OK crashing the market in service of establishing more equitable global trade for the American worker and creating middle-class jobs.

I know most people here think that his plan is doomed to fail, but you have to at least acknowledge that he’s the first president in decades (if not longer) to be willing to tolerate/inflict pain on the wealthy in service of advancing the middle class.

The bleeding-heart DCUM liberals should, if nothing else, be supportive of that in principle. Instead, everyone here seems more concerned with their retirement accounts. Tsk, tsk, tsk - bad liberals!

The stock market trades on projected future earnings. This is strong signaling that earnings are in peril. Which means that people and businesses aren't buying, businesses aren't investing, followed by fewer workers working, etc. This impacts everybody. Maybe you know that, though and are just providing weak cover for the moron-in-chief.

Yup. A large part of the economy is on standstill because there's no certainty and these tariffs are the largest tax increase, as a percentage of GDP, in generations.

The worst part is that Congress can stop this at any time. Yet the only Republicans speaking up against it are Murkowski, Collins, McConnell, Paul and Bacon.

+1
The rest of the Republicans have it too easy. If their constituents don't like this, they have to turn up the heat.

[Anonymous]

Would now be a good time to privatize Social Security? Ya know, buy the dip.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You can calculate the bottom by taking the top 50 public traded, erase all their international profits, increase labor costs by 10%, and then adjust according to the average of last quater PE ratio.

Long term they will boost domestic profit, but will take about 5 years to bring capacity online.

Increase labor by 10%?!?

Ridiculous. You just completely made that up!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what do we do? Sell all our stocks on Monday?

We’re holding. It will stabilize soon.

Or go down another 30%

More and more business people, including those who voted for Trump, speaking out over the weekend. I think there may be a full on revolt/intervention if this sh*t continues.

I don’t think so. Fed is not going to bail anyone out. And Trump is not going to back out and cancel his tariffs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need the retirement accounts because globalization killed defined benefit pensions. In addition to blue collar jobs.

No. What you need is...restraint. Who said pensions were a given? Who said, retirement accounts should be mostly invested in stonks?? There's a reason a 60/40 split of stocks/bonds was considered a balanced portfolio. Look at the 10y yield. It has not dropped this much, this fast for quite a while. It's doing the job of the Fed, causing rates to go down, without bowing at Powell's feet.

We've been living large on borrowed time and money for far too long. If the current events actually stick and cause "reality" to rear its head, we're looking at a lot of pain. And that pain is needed.

Ah! I recognize you! You are the small business owner who paid off their mortgage, barely invests in the market, and has no understanding of how economies work. You are embarrassing yourself with this talk about restraint. It’s like you live in a different metaverse where you are trying to out the globalization - the genie in the bottle back in.

No. I'm independently wealthy and a partner at a "Big 4" firm...in policy support. I may not be directly connected to the President (or Elon for that matter), but I'm in the room when these big policy decisions are being discussed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:So what do we do? Sell all our stocks on Monday?

We’re holding. It will stabilize soon.

Or go down another 30%

More and more business people, including those who voted for Trump, speaking out over the weekend. I think there may be a full on revolt/intervention if this sh*t continues.

That revolt already happened...Trump got elected. Deal with it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:So what do we do? Sell all our stocks on Monday?

I put my 401k in a really conservative fund and will see how the next week plays out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need the retirement accounts because globalization killed defined benefit pensions. In addition to blue collar jobs.

No. What you need is...restraint. Who said pensions were a given? Who said, retirement accounts should be mostly invested in stonks?? There's a reason a 60/40 split of stocks/bonds was considered a balanced portfolio. Look at the 10y yield. It has not dropped this much, this fast for quite a while. It's doing the job of the Fed, causing rates to go down, without bowing at Powell's feet.

We've been living large on borrowed time and money for far too long. If the current events actually stick and cause "reality" to rear its head, we're looking at a lot of pain. And that pain is needed.

Ah! I recognize you! You are the small business owner who paid off their mortgage, barely invests in the market, and has no understanding of how economies work. You are embarrassing yourself with this talk about restraint. It’s like you live in a different metaverse where you are trying to out the globalization - the genie in the bottle back in.

No. I'm independently wealthy and a partner at a "Big 4" firm...in policy support. I may not be directly connected to the President (or Elon for that matter), but I'm in the room when these big policy decisions are being discussed.

Well I hope you get a haircut just like the rest of us. But you're probably poised to do some insider trading that you'll never get busted for.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need the retirement accounts because globalization killed defined benefit pensions. In addition to blue collar jobs.

No. What you need is...restraint. Who said pensions were a given? Who said, retirement accounts should be mostly invested in stonks?? There's a reason a 60/40 split of stocks/bonds was considered a balanced portfolio. Look at the 10y yield. It has not dropped this much, this fast for quite a while. It's doing the job of the Fed, causing rates to go down, without bowing at Powell's feet.

We've been living large on borrowed time and money for far too long. If the current events actually stick and cause "reality" to rear its head, we're looking at a lot of pain. And that pain is needed.

Ah! I recognize you! You are the small business owner who paid off their mortgage, barely invests in the market, and has no understanding of how economies work. You are embarrassing yourself with this talk about restraint. It’s like you live in a different metaverse where you are trying to out the globalization - the genie in the bottle back in.

No. I'm independently wealthy and a partner at a "Big 4" firm...in policy support. I may not be directly connected to the President (or Elon for that matter), but I'm in the room when these big policy decisions are being discussed.

Well I hope you get a haircut just like the rest of us. But you're probably poised to do some insider trading that you'll never get busted for.

Both statements are true. My portfolio will take a hit, just like anybody else, and yes, I do have access to non-public information. Regularly. Whether I choose to act on it or not...is complicated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there's a lot further to fall. I expect the S&P 500 to drop at least 30% from peak - maybe more.

I think this Tariff nonsense is so stupid but I knew this fool would go through with it. I'm sitting on about $2M in cash. Hope to start deploying that cash after the 30% drop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need the retirement accounts because globalization killed defined benefit pensions. In addition to blue collar jobs.

No. What you need is...restraint. Who said pensions were a given? Who said, retirement accounts should be mostly invested in stonks?? There's a reason a 60/40 split of stocks/bonds was considered a balanced portfolio. Look at the 10y yield. It has not dropped this much, this fast for quite a while. It's doing the job of the Fed, causing rates to go down, without bowing at Powell's feet.

We've been living large on borrowed time and money for far too long. If the current events actually stick and cause "reality" to rear its head, we're looking at a lot of pain. And that pain is needed.

Why, other than having heard on the Fox, do you think that pain is needed? DO you truly believe that this will bring back a manufacturing jobs? Best case scenario is maybe that manufacturing labor force goes up 3-4% from 7% to 11 % total US jobs. Automation is what's really has been keeping manuf employment in check and that will not change. SO peasants will have to pay more for the goods and they will still have the same shitty service sector jobs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We need the retirement accounts because globalization killed defined benefit pensions. In addition to blue collar jobs.

No. What you need is...restraint. Who said pensions were a given? Who said, retirement accounts should be mostly invested in stonks?? There's a reason a 60/40 split of stocks/bonds was considered a balanced portfolio. Look at the 10y yield. It has not dropped this much, this fast for quite a while. It's doing the job of the Fed, causing rates to go down, without bowing at Powell's feet.

We've been living large on borrowed time and money for far too long. If the current events actually stick and cause "reality" to rear its head, we're looking at a lot of pain. And that pain is needed.

Ah! Powell. Powell is not going to budge until it is absolutely necessary. He doesn't GAF about Donnie and his band of clowns. Sure this would reduce long term rates and make it go below short-term rates causing that dreaded inversion.. more stock market drops and an eventual recession.

[Anonymous]

Apparently Fox News Faulkner (?) thinks we should treat this like war rationing. What a moron!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You can't really turn the world's economic order on its head and not expect repercussions. And now that the United States has demonstrated it's no longer a serious nation, but instead one that can be jerked around and will jerk around others based on the whims of a felonious, idiotic shithead, good luck putting that genie back in the bottle. Many people are going to have their retirements shattered and many businesses will fail.

"one that can be jerked around" - True. That has been happening for decades.

"will jerk around others" - Should have happened decades ago, but didn't.

"on the whims of a felonious, idiotic shithead" - But...no one else took action.

"good luck putting that genie back in the bottle" - Agreed. Gonna be wild.

"Many people are going to have their retirements shattered" - The same people who were driving G-Wagons, because ...stonks!! ? The average person has very little exposure to the capital markets, this is only affecting the wealthy. They can take it.

"many businesses will fail" - Should have happened decades ago. All these zombie companies that exists solely because we kept cost of money so low for so long...

This is actually a good point. It’s been documented that the top 10% wealthiest Americans own 90% of all stocks. Trump seems OK crashing the market in service of establishing more equitable global trade for the American worker and creating middle-class jobs.

I know most people here think that his plan is doomed to fail, but you have to at least acknowledge that he’s the first president in decades (if not longer) to be willing to tolerate/inflict pain on the wealthy in service of advancing the middle class.

The bleeding-heart DCUM liberals should, if nothing else, be supportive of that in principle. Instead, everyone here seems more concerned with their retirement accounts. Tsk, tsk, tsk - bad liberals!

I have a bridge to sell anyone who thinks this will create jobs. Anything reshored will be automated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think there's a lot further to fall. I expect the S&P 500 to drop at least 30% from peak - maybe more.

I think this Tariff nonsense is so stupid but I knew this fool would go through with it. I'm sitting on about $2M in cash. Hope to start deploying that cash after the 30% drop.

No you won't.

You'll be too scared to do so. This is somewhat generalized, but unless you're a hedge fund manager and/or the likes of Blackrock/PIMCO/GS/JP etc, you're tossing the dice just like anybody else. THOSE are the guys who make the markets go up/down.