Yes and no. 4% is likley much too low. The right number is likely 5 or 5.5 or some would say 6. So if you go with 4 and be smart about things it should last. How to be smart? Take 3 or lower if you can in down market years. put in small but meaningful reductions in spend at some point when older -- like reduce spend 2% per year for 5 years from 75-80. Run the numbers and see what this does to your chances of making it. It is amazing. If you retire at 65 ---- take some time off but do some compensated work if you can from 67-73ish. Not a lot and not full time but every dollar you make --- take less from stash. You need to do something in any event. |
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Have budgeted to receive the same dollar amount every year (not percentage), no matter how the market performs. Can always adjust upward, if needed in the future, since it's a conservative figure.
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Typical boomer mentality. Me, me, me! The irony is that boomers like you only amassed so much wealth because you voted yourself massive tax cuts as well as big increases in Social Security and Medicare benefits. So you're basically putting it all on the national credit card to fund your lavish luxury cruises while leaving the bill to your kids. |
But unless you’re their kids, why do you care if they spend their assets instead of leaving them as an inheritance? The rest of us are probably better off if they’re putting that money back into the broader economy anyway. |
So first off this is a joke. To your comment on boomers, investing in the market over time can result in a decent sized brokerage account or 401k. Why does this anger you so? |
The most likely result of your plan is that at death you have more than you started with in today's dollars. |
Someone who is 55 is not a boomer, so your comment doesn’t really apply here. |
So then the pp is correct — you can’t assume that you can take a steady 4% withdrawal and not touch principal. There will always be downturns, and a lot depends on when those downturns occur. If it’s early in your retirement, it’s much more damaging if you dip into principal and not get the benefit of compounding on the money that was withdrawn (even if your long term return is well over 4%). |
| When you reach age 71 or so you have a required minimum distribution that is calculated based on your life expectancy. This means you have to use some of your principal and not just leave it for your heirs. |
Not a smart comment. You have to take it out of a tax deferred account to a taxable account but you don’t have to spend (other than the taxes) you can still leave to your heirs. |
Correct -- you do not have to spend it. You pay taxes and the rest you can keep for heirs, give it away, invest it. Not really sure the fear of RMDs. Other than you have to pay taxes. |
Pretty much the only way you can be in real trouble with a 4% rate is if the downturn happens early. But yes -- anyone who is smart will not just blindly take the 4% in a downturn. Even going to 3.5 will help. |
Don’t let the facts get in the way!! |
| Once you hit the RMD age, you will be forced to out increasing larger withdrawals that will exceed 4% over time. |
In theory, money doubles every 7 years. But in actuality, the way the stock market works is let's say you have 3M. If you're lucky, over the next 7. years you could hit 6M. But it's very likely that you'll have a correct and the 6M could easily be 4M or even 3M. If you stay the course, once you've hit bottom, say at year 9.5, then you have another 7 years from there starting with the 4 or 3M, and so on. People who think it will simple double every 7 years sequentially are in for a rude awakening if they are dependent on that. |