When will home prices starting going down again?

[Anonymous]

It would take a really chilling recession or even depression to unwind house prices down to reasonable territory

[Anonymous]

I think it would be funny to dig up all the threads, by year, that this question has been asked. Especially right before prices skyrocketed in 2020

[Anonymous]

Never.

Right now inventory is so incredibly tight because the only people selling are people who have to sell. Or who died.

I'd love to sell and trade up but selling my house with a 2.75 rate to buy something 20-25% more expensive doubles my mortgage payment under the current interest rates. Which means not selling is a no brainer. And there are millions like me. So our houses remain off the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Shouldn't the same demographic cliff projected to hit colleges hit housing ~10-15 years later? I think that's coming up in a couple of years or so.

The internal timing of this post is so screwed up it's impossible to take it seriously.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I was researching this video yesterday. Looks like there might be a reason that prices do fall quite soon. I am hopeful. This is a great analysis.

If you think this is a great analysis, then I don't know what to tell you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I was researching this video yesterday. Looks like there might be a reason that prices do fall quite soon. I am hopeful. This is a great analysis.

If you think this is a great analysis, then I don't know what to tell you.

+1 I watched this too. The guy is waiting for a crash to happen soon and he is delusional.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

Currently renting a townhouse for $2600/month. One popped up for sale with one less 1/2 bath down the block and my mortgage with 20% down so no PMI, current interest rates and the HOA would be exactly double.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I honestly don't know - I'm not sure they will. I sold in 2021 when we had to move to take care of an elderly relative. In retrospect, we should've bought immediately after moving because we missed some of the increase in prices. Now - I just don't know what to do. I believe prices are overinflated - but I see no reason for them to go down. Inventory is low - and will remain so while interest rates are on the higher end. If interest rates go down - there "might" be more supply - but demand will also increase. How that balances out - no one knows.

+1 We relocated to a new area and sold our DC home in Fall 2022. We thought prices were going to decrease a bit in our new location since they skyrocketed during the pandemic. They decreased a little bit. We bought in Spring of 2023 for slightly less than we would have paid Spring of 2022. New builds actually increased in value, which no one saw coming. Now things are sitting a bit longer, but prices haven't tanked.

So who knows when prices will go down again? Not me.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

Currently renting a townhouse for $2600/month. One popped up for sale with one less 1/2 bath down the block and my mortgage with 20% down so no PMI, current interest rates and the HOA would be exactly double.

DP here. The value of buying vs. renting is fixing the costs for future years. For example, we bought a second home over ten years ago. When we bought it, we couldn't cover the PITI even if we rented it all the time. Now we could cover it and have some left over.

[Anonymous]

Depends on where you are. Housing prices in the DMV, especially inside the beltway, and most certainly anywhere near a metro, are not likely to go down. I won't say they won't ever go down, but if they do, I'm betting I won't live to see it.

The fed gov has expanded under every administration in my memory (even given the Republican rhetoric about small government), and so there will always be serious demand in this area, and there will always be people making enough money to pay much higher prices than people in other parts of the country could pay. So even if prices were to go down in much of the rest of the US for whatever reason(s), they are unlikely to go down here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

No. Not in my part of NOVA anyway.

[Anonymous]

[twitter] mi

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

Yes, absolutely. We were considering renting our house and renting in another neighborhood. The house we were most interested in sold recently for 2.3mil and eventually got rented for 7200 after a month on the market. The mortgage for the same house would be almost double that and most of it would be going toward interest.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

No. Not in my part of NOVA anyway.

Can you quote a specific example of a rental that would cost less in a monthly mortgage payment if purchased at current interest rates? In most cases renting right now is a much more reasonable decision. This was not the case until the recent increase in rates but now it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

Currently renting a townhouse for $2600/month. One popped up for sale with one less 1/2 bath down the block and my mortgage with 20% down so no PMI, current interest rates and the HOA would be exactly double.

DP here. The value of buying vs. renting is fixing the costs for future years. For example, we bought a second home over ten years ago. When we bought it, we couldn't cover the PITI even if we rented it all the time. Now we could cover it and have some left over.

If the rent and mortgage are pretty close. It does not work out so well when the mortgage is almost double
the rent and most of your payment is interest. Rents do not double in 10 years. The original post was suggesting upgrading in 5-10 years which is just not adding up with the current price trajectory and interest rates. People in the US are obsessed with owning but renting is very often a wiser financial decision.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They won't.

But, I do think they plateau for a while.

I honestly do think the most important thing for first time homebuyers or young homebuyers is to forget the idea of a "dream home" and just get your foot in the door.

That starter home that you're worried you'll outgrow will provide good equity for your next home when you actually do need the space

Not sure this is such a great idea right now. The prices are not going up enough to compensate for transaction costs and interest payments. It will be hard to build significant equity in 5-10 years. You can currently rent for much less than you could purchase the same house. If I was not owning already I would rent and invest.

Can you, though?

Currently renting a townhouse for $2600/month. One popped up for sale with one less 1/2 bath down the block and my mortgage with 20% down so no PMI, current interest rates and the HOA would be exactly double.

DP here. The value of buying vs. renting is fixing the costs for future years. For example, we bought a second home over ten years ago. When we bought it, we couldn't cover the PITI even if we rented it all the time. Now we could cover it and have some left over.

So, you bought at the *literal* low. What exactly are you crowing on about now, in the year of two thousand twenty four?

Also, my 7-year old hvac unit went out last year. Guess who didn’t have to replace it? Me.