Market Crash

[Anonymous]

Great, Ivan….

Also, it’s spelled Treasuries.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A crappy stock market is going to usher in a second Trump term. He's going to blame Biden and exploit this for all it's worth.

LOL LOL I guess you didn't check on your investments when Trump was in office.

They did better than Biden's miserable two years.

Only about 58% of American adults have any stock investments at all.

Yeah but only a third of the electorate even votes.

You are way off, 67% voted in 2020

Whatever that was a record turnout

Not whatever, it’s been above 50 percent for the last 50 years dummy

And it was in response to only 58% of American hold stocks. Since only 60% even vote I’m betting there’s some correlation.

No one cares what you are betting. You can’t even tell a difference between 1/3 and 2/3

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Stop making this political!!! They are all crooks, why can’t you die hards understand this, you fall for it, get all worked up and it’s all about votes, they don’t actually care. Take what is given and make money with it. Remember when a stock goes up or down, someone is making money and someone is losing money. It’s not a one way transaction!!

You are a profoundly simple person w a very flawed understanding of how the financial markets work.

[Anonymous]

Man there are a bunch of dumb asses on this thread.

My crystal ball must be broken.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imo we are 90 days or less out. Stocks have too much competition from Treasurys. Job numbers and inflation will keep the Fed chasing their tail. Let me guess everyone is going to ride it out? S&P has returned 0% in past 24 months. A 10% drop we are back to 2020 levels.

If it's going to crash, then it's going to be because the Republicans allow the U.S. to default on the debt limit.

Why would they want US to default? I’d me more worried about escalating tensions with Russia and China.

Because they've committed to debt ceiling brinksmanship from the extremist end of their party (just look at what happened with the Speaker vote), even though it's debt that has already been incurred as a result of previous spending decisions made over many, many years. If the economy tanks (which is highly likely), then they'll try to blame the current administration for it. Read up on the two Santas theory.

I don’t quite understand the politics of it but your view seems pretty biased. Republicans are considering a way that ensures US debt obligations and things like social security and Medicare are paid. Not sure what doesn’t get paid in their plan but it is hard to argue that US debt is unsustainable and something needs to be done about it.

Some radical right wing Republicans don't care about what happens to Americans. They just want to score points for being extreme nationalist. If they cause a default, America will lose its standing as the most secure financial market in the world. It will cost taxpayers trillions of dollars in higher interest payments. It is entirely avoidable. The radical right wing wants to score points with their base which gets terrible information from their news sources.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

This looks like a total over reaction. SVB looks solid. This is a minor not major issue for other banks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

Well it’s a west coast startup focused thing, so it’s crisis seems contained. But the root problem with the mark to market drop of long date treasuries is a wider potential problem.

This looks like a total over reaction. SVB looks solid. This is a minor not major issue for other banks.

SVB looks solid? Buy 1000 shares this morning for $65 each. Sell it in 2 weeks for double. Do it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imo we are 90 days or less out. Stocks have too much competition from Treasurys. Job numbers and inflation will keep the Fed chasing their tail. Let me guess everyone is going to ride it out? S&P has returned 0% in past 24 months. A 10% drop we are back to 2020 levels.

If it's going to crash, then it's going to be because the Republicans allow the U.S. to default on the debt limit.

Why would they want US to default? I’d me more worried about escalating tensions with Russia and China.

Because they've committed to debt ceiling brinksmanship from the extremist end of their party (just look at what happened with the Speaker vote), even though it's debt that has already been incurred as a result of previous spending decisions made over many, many years. If the economy tanks (which is highly likely), then they'll try to blame the current administration for it. Read up on the two Santas theory.

I don’t quite understand the politics of it but your view seems pretty biased. Republicans are considering a way that ensures US debt obligations and things like social security and Medicare are paid. Not sure what doesn’t get paid in their plan but it is hard to argue that US debt is unsustainable and something needs to be done about it.

Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending. You say you don’t understand the politics so maybe you should read up a little before forming an opinion.

Are you sure about that? I'll check, but I thought SS was brought on-budget during Bill Clinton's administration. No?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imo we are 90 days or less out. Stocks have too much competition from Treasurys. Job numbers and inflation will keep the Fed chasing their tail. Let me guess everyone is going to ride it out? S&P has returned 0% in past 24 months. A 10% drop we are back to 2020 levels.

If it's going to crash, then it's going to be because the Republicans allow the U.S. to default on the debt limit.

Why would they want US to default? I’d me more worried about escalating tensions with Russia and China.

Because they've committed to debt ceiling brinksmanship from the extremist end of their party (just look at what happened with the Speaker vote), even though it's debt that has already been incurred as a result of previous spending decisions made over many, many years. If the economy tanks (which is highly likely), then they'll try to blame the current administration for it. Read up on the two Santas theory.

I don’t quite understand the politics of it but your view seems pretty biased. Republicans are considering a way that ensures US debt obligations and things like social security and Medicare are paid. Not sure what doesn’t get paid in their plan but it is hard to argue that US debt is unsustainable and something needs to be done about it.

Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending. You say you don’t understand the politics so maybe you should read up a little before forming an opinion.

Are you sure about that? I'll check, but I thought SS was brought on-budget during Bill Clinton's administration. No?

Who was in charge of budgeting for six years of the Clinton administration?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imo we are 90 days or less out. Stocks have too much competition from Treasurys. Job numbers and inflation will keep the Fed chasing their tail. Let me guess everyone is going to ride it out? S&P has returned 0% in past 24 months. A 10% drop we are back to 2020 levels.

If it's going to crash, then it's going to be because the Republicans allow the U.S. to default on the debt limit.

Why would they want US to default? I’d me more worried about escalating tensions with Russia and China.

Because they've committed to debt ceiling brinksmanship from the extremist end of their party (just look at what happened with the Speaker vote), even though it's debt that has already been incurred as a result of previous spending decisions made over many, many years. If the economy tanks (which is highly likely), then they'll try to blame the current administration for it. Read up on the two Santas theory.

I don’t quite understand the politics of it but your view seems pretty biased. Republicans are considering a way that ensures US debt obligations and things like social security and Medicare are paid. Not sure what doesn’t get paid in their plan but it is hard to argue that US debt is unsustainable and something needs to be done about it.

Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending. You say you don’t understand the politics so maybe you should read up a little before forming an opinion.

Are you sure about that? I'll check, but I thought SS was brought on-budget during Bill Clinton's administration. No?

Who was in charge of budgeting for six years of the Clinton administration?

Well I can't even confirm it was brought on budget during Clinton's administration, so I'll withdraw that assertion. But can you explain the comment "Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending." ?

[Anonymous]

the politics on this thread belongs in the politics forum.

meanwhile, the collapse of SVB and silvergate is happening right now, and the risk of contagion seems real.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Imo we are 90 days or less out. Stocks have too much competition from Treasurys. Job numbers and inflation will keep the Fed chasing their tail. Let me guess everyone is going to ride it out? S&P has returned 0% in past 24 months. A 10% drop we are back to 2020 levels.

If it's going to crash, then it's going to be because the Republicans allow the U.S. to default on the debt limit.

Why would they want US to default? I’d me more worried about escalating tensions with Russia and China.

Because they've committed to debt ceiling brinksmanship from the extremist end of their party (just look at what happened with the Speaker vote), even though it's debt that has already been incurred as a result of previous spending decisions made over many, many years. If the economy tanks (which is highly likely), then they'll try to blame the current administration for it. Read up on the two Santas theory.

I don’t quite understand the politics of it but your view seems pretty biased. Republicans are considering a way that ensures US debt obligations and things like social security and Medicare are paid. Not sure what doesn’t get paid in their plan but it is hard to argue that US debt is unsustainable and something needs to be done about it.

Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending. You say you don’t understand the politics so maybe you should read up a little before forming an opinion.

Are you sure about that? I'll check, but I thought SS was brought on-budget during Bill Clinton's administration. No?

Who was in charge of budgeting for six years of the Clinton administration?

Well I can't even confirm it was brought on budget during Clinton's administration, so I'll withdraw that assertion. But can you explain the comment "Republicans are the ones who opened up the SS lockbox to pay for unrelated spending." ?

I am not that PP but the George Bush tax cuts were pretty well known to be paid for by a “surplus” that only existed if you considered SS part of the unified budget. Al Gore was mocked mercilessly for making opposition to this part of his campaign but, as with climate change, he was right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Over on Hacker News they are talking about the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and it’s illiquid long dated treasuries.

With the rapid rise in internet rates, almost all the long dated debt over the last 2 decades have taken a HUGE haircut, so suddenly many banks and such will be under capitalized and the Treasury market is much less liquid.

Couple that with debt ceiling shenanigans and possible China dumping UST as political stunt or even prelude to Taiwan attack, and the US could suddenly have no way to pay its bills and could collapse.

Surprised more ppl not talking about SVB…..

DP. Same here. And I’m not even surprised, as someone who worked at SVB for a year. That place was ran so terribly bad, it’s no real surprise it’s falling apart.