Chance of USD collapse, hyperinflation, loss of reserve currency status, etc

[Anonymous]

You would like my crazy mid-70s ILs. They watch too much Fox News and can’t just sit back and enjoy their $4 million retirement savings (plus paid off house). They’re constantly talking about inflation and how Biden is ruining the economy and keep searching for new ways to invest to make up for inflation losses. They’re exhausting and out of touch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:0%

This is pretty conservative. Reserve currency status is also supported by our rule of law. Law is predictable here. US law also is exported to World in international deals. Also our economy can’t really be equaled. Look at 2008. We were back by 2013. Europe never really came back. Hyperinflation should not work here. Where else would you go if not to the dollar. There is literally no other place. Not China. Not when it is a pure dictatorship.

Things are pretty good here and people either can’t or won’t open their eyes.

+ 1. While there are other stable currencies (e.g. Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen), they are issued by countries that don't have the economic bandwidth to be the reserve currency of the world.
The other currencies capable of replacing the USD - Euro and Yuan - are supported by unstable/unreliable economic entities.

I read an article somewhere that talked about how being a reserve currency is equivalent to exporting your currency, typically to the detriment of other areas of the economy but you do get support when it comes to maintaining a low interest rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All empires end - that is a historical fact. Trying to time their demise is a fools errand. The dollar is king now; it won’t always be.

This is a philosophical statement that is the equivalent of "All people die, so you are screwed anyway". Zero practical value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very high. US keeps ringing up massive debt and tries to monetize it. Saudi Arabia is now accepting the yuan for payment. It won't happen all at once, but just as a slow chipping away.

100% agree. We are the reserve currency just because the oil is assessed in dollar. They saw how the Russian were quick out of the swift system and some fortune were confiscated without dual process. Do you think they want to take the risk for much longer?
And other countries watching us how we just print money just because. What about if China decided that they can not longer want our dollars in exchange for all the crap that we brought from them?

Nope. We are the reserve currency because we are the most stable, trusted currency in the world. Do you know what people in Argentina do when they get paid? After buying stuff they need, they go to the bank and convert the money to $100 USD bills to stick under the mattress.. It is believed Argentina has one of the largest number $100 bills in circulation outside the US. I'm sure this is the case in a lot of other countries. I don't see people doing that with the Yuan or Rubles..

Every country is free to trade in whatever currency or method they choose to (and some do). They just use USD out of convenience and stability.

[Anonymous]

It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

No body has said nothing about the ruble’s becoming the reserve currency dummy

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

No body has said nothing about the ruble’s becoming the reserve currency dummy

Read the OP brain trust.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

+ 1. People don't realize that the US has a few tricks they can pull if a real trend away from the USD pops up.

1. Raise interest rates.
2. Sanction China on some pretext or the other.
3. Start a war.

Anything to destabilize the up-and-comer, the US can and will do. Heck, just throw a bunch of rags soaked in Covid in downtown, anycity, China should do the trick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

+ 1. People don't realize that the US has a few tricks they can pull if a real trend away from the USD pops up.

1. Raise interest rates.
2. Sanction China on some pretext or the other.
3. Start a war.

Anything to destabilize the up-and-comer, the US can and will do. Heck, just throw a bunch of rags soaked in Covid in downtown, anycity, China should do the trick.

The Yuan is not going to be a reserve currency because nobody trusts the Chinese central bank. The Euro is probably the best candidate to replace the dollar if it ever comes to that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

+ 1. People don't realize that the US has a few tricks they can pull if a real trend away from the USD pops up.

1. Raise interest rates.
2. Sanction China on some pretext or the other.
3. Start a war.

Anything to destabilize the up-and-comer, the US can and will do. Heck, just throw a bunch of rags soaked in Covid in downtown, anycity, China should do the trick.

The Yuan is not going to be a reserve currency because nobody trusts the Chinese central bank. The Euro is probably the best candidate to replace the dollar if it ever comes to that.

The euro area sovereign debt crisis burst that bubble

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

+ 1. People don't realize that the US has a few tricks they can pull if a real trend away from the USD pops up.

1. Raise interest rates.
2. Sanction China on some pretext or the other.
3. Start a war.

Anything to destabilize the up-and-comer, the US can and will do. Heck, just throw a bunch of rags soaked in Covid in downtown, anycity, China should do the trick.

The Yuan is not going to be a reserve currency because nobody trusts the Chinese central bank. The Euro is probably the best candidate to replace the dollar if it ever comes to that.

Agree, but they already tried that and failed. I think the EU is OK with the $ being the reserve currency and won't rock that boat, especially given their dependence on the US for military support against Russia..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All empires end - that is a historical fact. Trying to time their demise is a fools errand. The dollar is king now; it won’t always be.

This is a philosophical statement that is the equivalent of "All people die, so you are screwed anyway". Zero practical value.

Yes in several hundred years something may happen. More likley in several hundred years the US control;s more of the world than it does now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is remarkable that the Russian trolls have found even the DCUM money forum though, maybe they are more clever than they've looked in the past 6 weeks with their botched invasion. Welcome comrades, we will all convert our dollars to rubles now that you have posted here!

+ 1. People don't realize that the US has a few tricks they can pull if a real trend away from the USD pops up.

1. Raise interest rates.
2. Sanction China on some pretext or the other.
3. Start a war.

Anything to destabilize the up-and-comer, the US can and will do. Heck, just throw a bunch of rags soaked in Covid in downtown, anycity, China should do the trick.

The Yuan is not going to be a reserve currency because nobody trusts the Chinese central bank. The Euro is probably the best candidate to replace the dollar if it ever comes to that.

The euro area sovereign debt crisis burst that bubble

The EU is not stable. One election from a problem (France, now).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very high. US keeps ringing up massive debt and tries to monetize it. Saudi Arabia is now accepting the yuan for payment. It won't happen all at once, but just as a slow chipping away.

100% agree. We are the reserve currency just because the oil is assessed in dollar. They saw how the Russian were quick out of the swift system and some fortune were confiscated without dual process. Do you think they want to take the risk for much longer?
And other countries watching us how we just print money just because. What about if China decided that they can not longer want our dollars in exchange for all the crap that we brought from them?

Russia GDP is tiny. And China will always need access to our consumers much more than we need their exports, with few exceptions. Still it will be tempting to inflate our way out of debt, but remember inflation had been below fed target levels for many years before the recent price spikes.

Yes but Russia is the richest country in natural resources always be exporting. We don’t produce as much as we consume, not even close. Our economy is based on services.

Yikes -- people believing what they hear. No Russia is not the richest country in natural resources. Frankly it is the US and Canada. We can produce way more than we do. We don't for lots of reasons. Also please realize these Russia sanctions are never coming off. Putin could get taken out tomorrow and unless Ted Cruz is the new Russia president (and probably then) the sanctions do not come off. Not in the lifetime of anyone alive now. Russia went too far. They are unlikely to do what is needed to remove the sanctions. Likely that would be making Ukraine whole, paying comp to anyone hurt or killed, free and fair elections, giving up nukes. This was the Putin miscalculation.