Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Russian invaders have had a year to dig in. Every approach to their positions is heavily mined. Their artillery is locked in. There is no easy way through without air dominance. It makes sense for Ukraine to move slowly and methodically given these realities. But they've had a lot of success hitting ammo dumps and their counter-battery has been very effective in taking out Russian artillery.

There's also been significant gains around Bakhmut, which is now entirely under Ukrainian fire control. They have the high ground. It's a death zone for Russians.

But this will be a long, drawn out war. There is no easy way to clear out Russian trenches. And of course Russians always escalate. Now they're destroying Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the rest of the world. Famine is a favorite tactic for Russians. Ukraine has a lot of experience with that. Millions of Ukrainians died in the 1930s due to a famine inflicted by Moscow. Throw in blowing up dams. Churches too. Russians hit the cathedral in Odesa this week. Not to mention the church in Mariupol, where they killed hundreds of civilians who had sought shelter there.

There's a lot of Russian propaganda on this site. But make no mistake. Russia is genuinely evil. We've only spent 5 percent of the pentagon's budget supporting Ukraine - mostly by sending old. surplus equipment that was due to be retired anyway. There's a lot more we could do. ATACMS would be a good start. And more Patriot systems.

Lies. The New York Times won a Pulitzer saying no famine in Ukraine, everything was going swimmingly.

[Anonymous]

Whoever wins or if the conflict is frozen, it’s going to be Pyrrhic victory.
Even if Russia gets to keep all it has as of now, how do they man it and finance it?
If there is an internationally agreed neutral area, where is to going to be?
If Ukraine pushes Russia back and Crimea and Donbas look like they can be reclaimed - Russia will go ballistic.
I think the first scenario is the most likely: the situation stays as it is, lives are lost, Russia becomes poor, but insists on fighting. Things may or may not change when Putin dies.
I am honestly not expecting any major changes in the next couple years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

So yeah, playing games to get some small morale boost is the name of the game here.

In case people haven't noticed, Russia is fighting a war of attrition not one of land. The land is easy to take once the army is broken. Zelensky will gladly sacrifice thousands of men, and dozens of armored units to take a few square K. They'll run out of army long before Russia runs out of fields.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The massive losses by the AFU yesterday explains all the extra garbage posting by Zelensky's fan club.

It took me a good 20 minutes to watch my tax dollars go up in smoke. It looked to be at least a dozen Bradleys and an equal number of Leopards (for European tax payers).

No wonder you fellas are frothing at the mouth with delusions.

Ahhh the usual bullshit Russian propaganda from someone like Geroman or Zoka that comes without credible evidence. According to those guys Russia has already destroyed 7000 Leopards and 15000 Bradleys or something like that.

Feel free to watch them yourself. Simplicius has helpfully collated them here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-raises-stakes-with-bold-strike

They start a quarter of the way down the article, after the grain deal/Odessa strikes part. Consider any video other than the drone's eye view ones as NSFW due to language (translated) at least.

Ahh same old tactic. I've seen that exact footage before. They are recycling old footage and claiming it as new losses. And incidentally, some of those Leopards and Bradleys were in fact recovered by AFU as they continued to advance, some are being repaired and returned to service.

Speaking of same old tactic...

Care to put a date on any of the dozen or so videos you claim are recycled? Most of the initial Bradley and Leopard losses were to mines. There may just be far more losses than you can keep straight, so it could be an honest mistake.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

And no media disagreed with it, either. Given your expertise, what percentage would you say they reclaimed?

I think 50% is legit. This comparison was from a month ago, and Ukraine has reclaimed more since then.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The massive losses by the AFU yesterday explains all the extra garbage posting by Zelensky's fan club.

It took me a good 20 minutes to watch my tax dollars go up in smoke. It looked to be at least a dozen Bradleys and an equal number of Leopards (for European tax payers).

No wonder you fellas are frothing at the mouth with delusions.

Ahhh the usual bullshit Russian propaganda from someone like Geroman or Zoka that comes without credible evidence. According to those guys Russia has already destroyed 7000 Leopards and 15000 Bradleys or something like that.

Feel free to watch them yourself. Simplicius has helpfully collated them here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-raises-stakes-with-bold-strike

They start a quarter of the way down the article, after the grain deal/Odessa strikes part. Consider any video other than the drone's eye view ones as NSFW due to language (translated) at least.

Ahh same old tactic. I've seen that exact footage before. They are recycling old footage and claiming it as new losses. And incidentally, some of those Leopards and Bradleys were in fact recovered by AFU as they continued to advance, some are being repaired and returned to service.

Speaking of same old tactic...

Care to put a date on any of the dozen or so videos you claim are recycled? Most of the initial Bradley and Leopard losses were to mines. There may just be far more losses than you can keep straight, so it could be an honest mistake.

To add to the basket of tricks, get a load of this:

The Sun is claiming this shows a Russian tank (Leopard) getting destroyed by a Ukrainian drone (Lancet). No wonder you people are so confused on what is going on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

So yeah, playing games to get some small morale boost is the name of the game here.

It is not playing games. ISW has been making these maps from the beginning, and they always had that land marked that way, the area in the east that Russia first identified as independent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

So yeah, playing games to get some small morale boost is the name of the game here.

In case people haven't noticed, Russia is fighting a war of attrition not one of land. The land is easy to take once the army is broken. Zelensky will gladly sacrifice thousands of men, and dozens of armored units to take a few square K. They'll run out of army long before Russia runs out of fields.

You seem to think that Ukraine will break before Russian troops do?

"Troops from the 7th VDV Division subsequently published an audio message on July 15 warning against the dismissal of their commander Teplinsky, who has also complained about the handling of the war in Ukraine. They threatened to withdraw from the occupied Kherson region, in Ukraine's south, if anything similar were to happen to Teplinsky."
It looks like Ukraine is having success cutting off the North-South transport / re-supply route along M03?

"They [Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov] are preparing to send them to slaughter,"
"All of them [VDV] are essentially light infantry, and they are being thrown to break through the layered defense."
"If the Ministry of Defense succeeds in their maneuver, then with one blow they will kill two birds with one stone—they will thin out the population of the military, dissatisfied with their management methods, and slow down the surrender of Bakhmut, who is now in a semi-encirclement,"
"If the idea fails, then Teplinsky will be made guilty. Or maybe they will help him with failure, limiting his equipment and ammunition (again, in their usual manner)."
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-elite-unit-vdv-bakhmut-counteroffensive-mutiny-fears-document-letter-1815164

To put context around this news, the 7th is an elite "Guards" Mountain Air Assault Division. I would consider them on-par with the US 82nd or 101st Airborne Divisions. If an elite Russian Army unit like this collapses in Bahkmut, I believe it will affect Russian morale along the Russian front lines. This is a direct effect of the Wagner pull-out in Bakhmut.

"Russia has "been forced" to deploy once-elite airborne forces (VDV) from four separate army divisions to hold the frontline in the city"
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russian-region-attacked-by-ukrainian-artillery-fire-as-wagner-forces-start-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut-12541713?postid=5999301

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7th_Guards_Mountain_Air_Assault_Division

The timing of these ammo depots helps Ukrainian momentum. It may mean that the Ukrainians are able to move units closer in range to reach targets they couldn't reach before.

"AFU destroys eight more Russian ammunition depots near Bakhmut"
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3740196-afu-destroys-eight-more-russian-ammunition-depots-near-bakhmut.html

In the meantime, Solovyov is lashing out about cluster munitions, since they're highly effective against infantry in woods or dug into trenches. His anger appears genuine (tongue click at [0:27 / 6:21] and uncontrolled emotion at [1:33 / 6:21]), so it's clear that the cluster munitions are making a difference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSU7gktyLjE

Once units like the 7th are broken, it will be at least 10 years to recover.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

So yeah, playing games to get some small morale boost is the name of the game here.

It is not playing games. ISW has been making these maps from the beginning, and they always had that land marked that way, the area in the east that Russia first identified as independent.

DPR and LPR have never been independent, they have always been Russian puppets with installed gauleiters like Pushilin.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Meanwhile as the bots claim it's all a failure, Ukraine just passed a milestone of having reclaimed 50% of its lands previously invaded and occupied by Russia. Meanwhile Russian targets all the way in Moscow are being blown up by Ukrainian drones. Russia continues to lose.

And what ridiculous contortions did you go through to reach that milestone?

"Ridiculous contortions?" Dude, even pro-Russian telegram channels and milbloggers have been acknowledging for the last month that Ukraine has been making gains in multiple directions all along the front.

The only person here engaging in ridiculous contortions is you, trying to stick your head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge what the Russian army knows.

Show your numerator and denominator.

1 over 2

I was able to track down this 50% business, and it seems a number that Blinken pulled out of his ..., uh guitar case. No media felt it a serious enough claim to actually explain or investigate, making it par for the course for alternate-reality Ukraine.

I think it is true if you compare to some time in March 2022, where Russia was occupying a lot of area near Belarus. It has been about the same area for a year.

Also, the ISW maps credits Russia with a larger area preinvasion, so the denominator is smaller, and it is easier to reclaim half.

So yeah, playing games to get some small morale boost is the name of the game here.

In case people haven't noticed, Russia is fighting a war of attrition not one of land. The land is easy to take once the army is broken. Zelensky will gladly sacrifice thousands of men, and dozens of armored units to take a few square K. They'll run out of army long before Russia runs out of fields.

You seem to think that Ukraine will break before Russian troops do?

"Troops from the 7th VDV Division subsequently published an audio message on July 15 warning against the dismissal of their commander Teplinsky, who has also complained about the handling of the war in Ukraine. They threatened to withdraw from the occupied Kherson region, in Ukraine's south, if anything similar were to happen to Teplinsky."
It looks like Ukraine is having success cutting off the North-South transport / re-supply route along M03?

"They [Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov] are preparing to send them to slaughter,"
"All of them [VDV] are essentially light infantry, and they are being thrown to break through the layered defense."
"If the Ministry of Defense succeeds in their maneuver, then with one blow they will kill two birds with one stone—they will thin out the population of the military, dissatisfied with their management methods, and slow down the surrender of Bakhmut, who is now in a semi-encirclement,"
"If the idea fails, then Teplinsky will be made guilty. Or maybe they will help him with failure, limiting his equipment and ammunition (again, in their usual manner)."
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-elite-unit-vdv-bakhmut-counteroffensive-mutiny-fears-document-letter-1815164

To put context around this news, the 7th is an elite "Guards" Mountain Air Assault Division. I would consider them on-par with the US 82nd or 101st Airborne Divisions. If an elite Russian Army unit like this collapses in Bahkmut, I believe it will affect Russian morale along the Russian front lines. This is a direct effect of the Wagner pull-out in Bakhmut.

"Russia has "been forced" to deploy once-elite airborne forces (VDV) from four separate army divisions to hold the frontline in the city"
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-russian-region-attacked-by-ukrainian-artillery-fire-as-wagner-forces-start-to-withdraw-from-bakhmut-12541713?postid=5999301

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7th_Guards_Mountain_Air_Assault_Division

The timing of these ammo depots helps Ukrainian momentum. It may mean that the Ukrainians are able to move units closer in range to reach targets they couldn't reach before.

"AFU destroys eight more Russian ammunition depots near Bakhmut"
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3740196-afu-destroys-eight-more-russian-ammunition-depots-near-bakhmut.html

In the meantime, Solovyov is lashing out about cluster munitions, since they're highly effective against infantry in woods or dug into trenches. His anger appears genuine (tongue click at [0:27 / 6:21] and uncontrolled emotion at [1:33 / 6:21]), so it's clear that the cluster munitions are making a difference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSU7gktyLjE

Once units like the 7th are broken, it will be at least 10 years to recover.

Russia has been trying to backfill the VDV and other elite units as well, but the replacements have nowhere near the training and capabilities continue to degrade as the war continues to take its toll on Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The massive losses by the AFU yesterday explains all the extra garbage posting by Zelensky's fan club.

It took me a good 20 minutes to watch my tax dollars go up in smoke. It looked to be at least a dozen Bradleys and an equal number of Leopards (for European tax payers).

No wonder you fellas are frothing at the mouth with delusions.

Ahhh the usual bullshit Russian propaganda from someone like Geroman or Zoka that comes without credible evidence. According to those guys Russia has already destroyed 7000 Leopards and 15000 Bradleys or something like that.

Feel free to watch them yourself. Simplicius has helpfully collated them here: https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russia-raises-stakes-with-bold-strike

They start a quarter of the way down the article, after the grain deal/Odessa strikes part. Consider any video other than the drone's eye view ones as NSFW due to language (translated) at least.

Ahh same old tactic. I've seen that exact footage before. They are recycling old footage and claiming it as new losses. And incidentally, some of those Leopards and Bradleys were in fact recovered by AFU as they continued to advance, some are being repaired and returned to service.

Speaking of same old tactic...

Care to put a date on any of the dozen or so videos you claim are recycled? Most of the initial Bradley and Leopard losses were to mines. There may just be far more losses than you can keep straight, so it could be an honest mistake.

To add to the basket of tricks, get a load of this:

The Sun is claiming this shows a Russian tank (Leopard) getting destroyed by a Ukrainian drone (Lancet). No wonder you people are so confused on what is going on.

Oh don't worry hun, there are plenty of recent videos that do show Russia's T-90s and other "elite" tanks being destroyed by Ukrainian drones and anti-tank weaponry.

[Anonymous]

The map has very little movement since maybe last September -ish 2022 but for now it looks like an absolute meat grinder of death on both Russian sides and Ukraine sides, hundreds of thousands dead, dying or damaged with brain injury or arms blown off and legs blown apart.

[Anonymous]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/world/europe/ukraine-war-divorce.html

Ukrainian women detaching from their men

“ Ninety percent of the eight million Ukrainian refugees have been women and children, and many women, married or not, do not plan to go back. They are moving on and developing new, entrenched lives. ”

—————————

The “country” is finished

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/world/europe/ukraine-war-divorce.html

Ukrainian women detaching from their men

“ Ninety percent of the eight million Ukrainian refugees have been women and children, and many women, married or not, do not plan to go back. They are moving on and developing new, entrenched lives. ”

—————————

The “country” is finished

Russia may have ruined it (that’s just what they do), but they’re not going to be allowed to keep it.