If Obama "loses" tomorrow, is the race pretty much over?

[Anonymous]

I put lose in quotes because despite some lies, fibs, and flip flops by Romney, the general public or independents will be focused on the presentation of the ideas not all the fact checking that comes afterwards.

Anyway, does a loss mean its over? Even if its a draw, will that be enough to give Romney what he needs to win (along with other factors)?

Thoughts?

[Anonymous]

No. Romney may strengthen his hold in the places he's already winning, but he is not going to swing the women and working class men he needs in the states where Obama's policies are working. People are not so stupid as to believe a pack of lies when the evidence of economic improvement and (marginally) better health insurance coverage is right in front of them. Despite what the Bible Belt would like the rest of the country to believe, women controlling their own reproduction is also not the bogeyman to most people.

[Anonymous]

God, I hope so.

[jsteele]

No. As bad as things got for Obama after the last debate, he never lost the lead in electoral college votes. There was a significant gap between national polls and state polls in swing states. While Obama lost some ground in the swing states he still maintained a significant advantage.

The Obama campaign has concentrated its resources on swing states. It is utilizing very effective advertising and emphasizing organization and the ground game. As a result, Obama could suffer a near collapse in national polls but still have a realistic chance of winning do to his strength and organization in the swing states. Ultimately, the election will be decided by voters, not polls, and the Obama campaign has put a lot of resources into its get out the vote efforts.

[Anonymous]

No. Debates have some impact but it's the work in the trenches that may make the difference.

[Anonymous]

Yes and no. He's not going to gain the ground or bump he needs because the format will be independents and students offering questions to each. So two things are likely to happen (and not happen).

1) He'll be required to talk about his record, what he's done and not done.

2) Because he's answering Q&A from the folks, and sitting in a bar stool, he'll not be nearly as able to land hard shots as the missed opportunity that was last week.

But he ought not LOSE much ground if that's what you're looking for.

[Anonymous]

I think there is a decent chance Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election. Which, if this happens, should result in California and Texas being broken up into 2 states each.

[Anonymous]

No.

It drives me crazy what weenies Ds can be (and I totally include myself in that). The Rs will tell you what they want the story to be-- regardless of whether it corresponds to reality at all-- while the Ds will agonize over what the worst case scenario of what the story might be-- regardless of whether it corresponds to reality at all.

The race always was, would be, and will be close. Obama is currently leading-- he certainly could lose but this debate alone isn't make or break for either side.

[Anonymous]

^ he needs to show up though. He needs to have a pulse this time. Otherwise people are going to think he doesn't want it. One thing to be polite, as he was last time, and another thing to give the impression he doesn't feel like fighting for the job.

[Anonymous]

OP here.

I think the race is going to be close (like some of you are saying) regardless. Romney debate "wins", fire up the base which can get them energized to go out and motivated to vote and get others to do the same. Obama "wins" would do the same for the dem base.

Regardless, if Obama loses, I dont think people will come back to the debates per se as the soul reason he lost. I think the economy, libya (if it picks up steam which I dont think it will until after the election), and other factors will do that. The debates may influence the outcome only that it highlighted the Obama's problems/issues regardless of how well or poor he performed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a decent chance Romney wins the popular vote but loses the election. Which, if this happens, should result in California and Texas being broken up into 2 states each.

From an electoral college perspective, you can bank on Texas splitting its delegates as soon as Hispanics are 50% of the vote.

[Anonymous]

I have read early voting is high in swing states, and overwhelmingly in favor of Obama.

[Anonymous]

Honey, it's already over. There is little if anything that O can do to turn this around at this point. Elections are all about timing and momentum and with just 3 weeks to go (thank God), it's permanently swung the other way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honey, it's already over. There is little if anything that O can do to turn this around at this point. Elections are all about timing and momentum and with just 3 weeks to go (thank God), it's permanently swung the other way.

The week before momentum was going the other way n

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Honey, it's already over. There is little if anything that O can do to turn this around at this point. Elections are all about timing and momentum and with just 3 weeks to go (thank God), it's permanently swung the other way.

Ahahaha. This will be fun to revisit in November.