Do you trust the polls?

[Anonymous]

A few years ago I read them with a "grain of salt". The data was squishy, at best, and then cellphones came on the scene which added further doubt to the largely landline-driven polls. But, in more recent years, the polls seem to be spot-on. They did an amazing job of predicting the last couple of national elections -- and they predicted this one would come down to the wire -- that looks to be the case, as well.

Do you have faith in the polls? Have you ever been contacted by them? How? Landline or cell?

[Anonymous]

I have faith in the polls if they are larger than the margin of error. I like Real Clear Politics because it compiles the results of many polls. Individual polls can be really off base.

But I'm not going to be satisfied until after the election, and after any risk of counting dangling chads.

[Anonymous]

I work in this field (we mostly steer clear of political work, though), and for the most part, yes, I trust what the big polling organizations are doing. Polling is complicated, and they do provide a margin of error. Lots of math/statistics are involved and people quadruple check their work at the best organizations.

I am sorry if someone isn't happy with what the polls are saying, but it doesn't mean the polls are skewed or biased. The cell phone issue has been largely taken care of - you can check out articles in our industry publications on this issue.

[Anonymous]

sort of, i remember that bush was polled to lose twice and won so I am skeptic. I was partying both times too soon for bush's loses.

[Anonymous]

Generally speaking, yes, but I understanding how statistics work and how to read them.

Also, the only polls that matter are the ones in the swing states. National polls don't tell us very much.

[Anonymous]

Yes, I was contacted for one during the last election by QU. I generally trust them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Generally speaking, yes, but I understanding how statistics work and how to read them.

Also, the only polls that matter are the ones in the swing states. National polls don't tell us very much.

this is true - which is why all the news orgs are being very specific in reporting the swing state polls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:sort of, i remember that bush was polled to lose twice and won so I am skeptic. I was partying both times too soon for bush's loses.

I know, me too...but polling has improved since then. Cell Phone polling and Exit Polls, especially.

[Anonymous]

As a guide to the campaigns on where to put their effort, I think the polls are great. As a trustworthy predictor of the final result, no to much.

[Anonymous]

Yes but your perception that it is going to be down to the wire is off. When you look at the polling data from the electoral college perspective, Obama has to pick up a pretty small amount of battleground seats in order to win re-election.

Go to Rasmussen, the most conservative pollster, and look at the electoral battle. Based on that, it appears that Obama almost certainly wins.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I have faith in the polls if they are larger than the margin of error. I like Real Clear Politics because it compiles the results of many polls. Individual polls can be really off base.

But I'm not going to be satisfied until after the election, and after any risk of counting dangling chads.

Why not try a site with less bias? Why not try fivethirtyeight?