Real talk about the city’s economy, federal buildings leases, and telework impacts

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
New poster and late to this party but...I'm a suburbanite, neither I nor my spouse has ever worked in DC, yet we go into the city frequently and spend money there. We have no desire to live in the city but we absolutely go to the museums, a lot of theater, concerts, exhibits and other events. Yes, most of the museums are free, but we pay for plenty of other outings, meals, parking, etc. So: Are we just "parasites" or are we coming into your city and contribuing to its coffers? I'd bet we spend considerably more in DC than office workers who live in 'burbs like us, work in DC, but leave each night and don't spend any money on entertainment in the city at all. But if you want to call us suburban parasites, go right ahead.

Yes, that is correct. You might want to brush up on your land use history. Suburbs didn't just magically appear outside of city centers from thin air. They were created to allow certain people to get away from others and in some cases avail themselves of city services without paying city takes (Exhibit A: Baltimore). You don't pay DC property taxes and our councilmembers cater to your transportation whims. Sounds like a raw deal to this DC resident.

This is unhinged. There are 3 million people that live in Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax County, Montgomery County and Prince George’s County and the far and away vast majority of them have lives that have nothing to do with DC. They live, work, and play in their own communities. All parasites apparently, who are stealing from DC and if they venture into DC to spend money, that makes them worse because being physically in DC and standing on a sidewalk or whatever means they are using “services” which makes them even worse parasites even though they are contributing to the city’s economy.

I was thinking about something tangential to this today. I fly around the world like a lot of people to visit cities like Paris, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo, etc. and love doing it. But I live in Fairfax and almost never spend any time in DC despite working in living under 30 minutes away. I was there was some draw to DC other than the sports stadiums. But I'd rather fly to London for the weekend than drive the 25 mins to DC. Weird.

There's a hell of a lot more to do in DC than there is in Fairfax or anywhere else in the DC burbs. Museums, music, art, and so much more, and for us, much of it is walkable or otherwise easy to get to. We're doing tons of stuff in DC every weekend. You throw Paris, London, Hong Kong out there, but the thing is, most normal people don't have the money to visit those places except for maybe once every so many years.

The barrier isn't at all a lack of things to do, it's the fact that you have to deal with traffic and don't want to take mass transit. Inside DC we don't have anywhere near as much of a problem.

Are you able to give some examples? I’m truly unaware of much going on besides concerts at the arena, smithsonian museums and the Phillips collection. DC isn’t a city for the arts. In my opinion, it has less to offer in the arts than a much smaller city like Cincinnati.

I think it’s kind of weird to live in DC for access to the arts and music. DC is mostly office buildings, a handful of decent restaurants and large museums/government buildings . No one travels to DC for the arts and music.

You want examples of music and the arts? How about the Kennedy Center? The Anthem? 9:30 Club? Black Cat? Pie Shop? Echostage? Flash? Warner Theater? Wooly Mammoth? DC Fringe? Shakespeare Theatre Company? Arena Stage? Mosaic Theater Company?


Also I love how you handwave away our museums with "I'm unaware of much besides the Smithsonian, what do we have?" The Smithsonian is the largest museum network in the world and has 20 museums in DC. That's like saying "I'm unaware of much wine stuff going on in Napa besides all the vineyards!" And you're not even right. We have plenty of museums besides the Smithsonian - the National Gallery of Art, the Holocaust Museum, the Navy Museum, the Spy Museum, the National Geographic Museum, the Kreeger, the Museum of the Bible, (ew, I know. But still, it's a museum) Anderson House, Dumbarton House, Woodrow Wilson House, the Heurich House, the Octagon, the National Archives, the Library of Congress, the Folger, the Women in the Arts museum.

Any of these ring a bell? No wonder you think nobody travels to DC for arts, music, or museums. You're woefully ignorant of the entire scene. Imagine being this confidently incorrect about something so obvious.

These are great, but I can’t imagine someone in DC visiting these museums on a regular basis. These are places you visit once or when you’re bored with young kids and need somewhere to go on a Saturday in February.

Nonsense. People who love art do visit on a regular basis. I think you’re just not that into art. l try to visit every new show at the Hirshhorn, and l swing by my favorites (The Vermeers) at the National Gallery at least once a year, which is easy to do because it’s free, not even a “suggested donation”. There are also fantastic private art museums in the area like the Glenstone and the new Rubell - both belong to collectors with works class collections. The Glenstone is free and the Rubell is free for DC residents. Glenstone tickets are so I’m demand that you have to snag them on the day they’re released. So….l don’t think anyone will convince the previous poster that DC isn’t a great place for the arts, because they seem stubbornly convinced. DC has the most museums per square mile of any place in the US.

I agree, PP is just looking stupid at this point. That said, DC having a great museum scene is unrelated to my unwillingness to drive in to the office every day to work in a cubicle 1.5 miles from the closest metro, where I can't even get to a restaurant to buy an overpriced lunch within my 30 minute unpaid lunch break, much less pop into a Smithsonian. It's a desirable place to live for those who can afford it, with tons to do in your free time, but as a mid-level fed with kids I literally can't afford to live close to all that good stuff. So no, I'm not going back to the office more than I absolutely have to.

I'm a fed who got lucky to buy an affordable unit when housing prices were low. My office is just 2 miles away, and I walked it every day pre-pandemic. But now I WFH even though the office is close, because the office was often too noisy and distracting to get things done. But I absolutely love walking the Mall, Capitol Hill, the Wharf, Smithsonian Gardens etc, and we go to museums and events on the regular. There is definitely, absolutely a lot more to do in DC than there was in the previous small city I lived in before moving to DC. PP who compared DC to an average small city has absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

[Anonymous]

Let’s talk about the real issue—what’s the DC city council going to do with DC taxes when downtown commercial real estate is marked down? The commercial real estate tax rate is twice as high as the residential one so even if we have a bunch of downtown conversions with minimal reductions in value (the best case scenario) you still have a fiscal hit to the city. And then of course there are likely to be markdowns.

Raise residential property taxes? Income taxes?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Let’s talk about the real issue—what’s the DC city council going to do with DC taxes when downtown commercial real estate is marked down? The commercial real estate tax rate is twice as high as the residential one so even if we have a bunch of downtown conversions with minimal reductions in value (the best case scenario) you still have a fiscal hit to the city. And then of course there are likely to be markdowns.

Raise residential property taxes? Income taxes?

This is a very good question. Bowser already said that residential real estate is off limits, but all other revenue streams are basically tapped out.

The plan right now seems to be denial with a mix of hope and pray, because everyone knows that the budget hit doesn’t happen until 2025 and that’s a lifetime away in politics.

The initial reaction seems to be to demand a Fed bailout with an attitude that the city is entitled to one. That’s predictably going over like a lead balloon. The next option would probably be to issue more debt to kick the can out until after Bowser completes her term and can leave the problem to her successor.

At some point, tax increase or no, they are going to have to start cutting budget and that’s when things are going to get ugly.

[Anonymous]

If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

[Anonymous]

The WaPo article shows that the in-person work rate downtown is just 45%. And even if Feds come back to the office, that doesn’t mean law firms etc will continue to lease at the same rate, which is probably a bigger deal from a property tax revenue perspective.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/27/downtown-dc-office-buildings-remote-workers/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The WaPo article shows that the in-person work rate downtown is just 45%. And even if Feds come back to the office, that doesn’t mean law firms etc will continue to lease at the same rate, which is probably a bigger deal from a property tax revenue perspective.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/27/downtown-dc-office-buildings-remote-workers/

The article also provides an important factoid. There are only 60,000 federal workers in downtown DC which is not enough to move the needle when you consider that very few are now 100% WFH. Going from 1-2 days in office per week to 2-3 days per weeks won’t save downtown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Bowser parroting Republican talking points is nothing new.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Great, so I will be working strictly 9-5 M-F and of course never on snow days. No telework!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Will it pass the Senate? And even if it does, can it reverse or supersede signed bargaining agreements? Not sure it can, on either of those questions.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Will it pass the Senate? And even if it does, can it reverse or supersede signed bargaining agreements? Not sure it can, on either of those questions.

It’s not likely this will pass the Senate unless it gets included in the debt ceiling package or something like that. The most likely outcome would probably be to lead more agencies to move to the suburbs and that’s likely to happen anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The WaPo article shows that the in-person work rate downtown is just 45%. And even if Feds come back to the office, that doesn’t mean law firms etc will continue to lease at the same rate, which is probably a bigger deal from a property tax revenue perspective.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/01/27/downtown-dc-office-buildings-remote-workers/

This article demonstrates why putting all the eggs in residential conversion is a pipe dream.

“$4,000 and $5,000 a month for two-bedroom apartments and between $8,000 and $10,000 a month for three bedrooms.”

So maybe this one building is going to be able to collect those rents to recoup their costs. There’s no way that can scale to 15,000 residents and imagine 100,000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Will it pass the Senate? And even if it does, can it reverse or supersede signed bargaining agreements? Not sure it can, on either of those questions.

It’s not likely this will pass the Senate unless it gets included in the debt ceiling package or something like that. The most likely outcome would probably be to lead more agencies to move to the suburbs and that’s likely to happen anyway.

Yep. GSA won't allow my agency to justify new leases or buildings in DC because of the cost savings in PG, Alexandria, and Fairfax.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If telework is indeed here to stay, my prediction is that the DC area will weather this better than many other cities and states.

If people keep resisting requests/commands to head back to the office and continue to insist they are just as productive at home, at some point corporate leaders will simply offshore those jobs. They did this before with blue collar jobs; they will do it to knowledge workers. Why pay for an accountant/graphic designer/engineer in the US, when you can hire one for a 1/10 of the cost and without pesky employment regulations in Costa Rica or Ghana or India? Even if these employees are (initially) less productive, they will cost so much less that it won't matter. The tax revenue consequences of this will be felt throughout the country.

The safest jobs are going to be jobs that cannot be outsourced: service jobs, professional jobs that require physical interaction (e.g., some doctors), the military, and many government jobs. The latter will make the DC area more offshore-proof than the rest of the country.

In addition, vengeful Republicans will eventually force federal government employees back to the office. They will be delighted at upsetting what they perceive to be lazy government workers. Which will help DC and surrounding areas.

Every time I have been downtown it seems quite busy. Also, I agree that the “vengeful” Republicans are going to force federal workers back into the office. It is only a matter of time.

The House already has a bill introduced by GOP sponsors to end federal telework, as it happens.

Will it pass the Senate? And even if it does, can it reverse or supersede signed bargaining agreements? Not sure it can, on either of those questions.

It’s not likely this will pass the Senate unless it gets included in the debt ceiling package or something like that. The most likely outcome would probably be to lead more agencies to move to the suburbs and that’s likely to happen anyway.

Yep. GSA won't allow my agency to justify new leases or buildings in DC because of the cost savings in PG, Alexandria, and Fairfax.

If more fed agencies move out, wouldn’t that mean a federal city (at least one as big as it is now) is unnecessary? Wouldn’t the exit of more federal agencies bolster DC’s chances of statehood?